Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

DALDAL at INDIND

Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf

DAL moneyline-278
IND moneyline+225
SpreadDAL -6
Total51.5

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the Dallas Cowboys a 59% chance to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon, November 8, at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Week 9. Neither team is above 60%, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 49.9 total points (posted total 51.5) and expects the Cowboys by 1.9 (posted spread Cowboys −6). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread IND +6 and total Under 51.5. Starting quarterbacks: Dak Prescott for the Cowboys and Daniel Jones for the Colts.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSDAL 59%, under 60%
SpreadIND +6Leo DAL by 1.9
TotalUnder 51.5Leo 49.9

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceDAL 59%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total49.9points, both teams
Leo marginDAL by 1.9expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Cowboys at 59%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

DAL This season IND
61 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41
26 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 41
43 Overall 41
QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27 Last season QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DAL Per game, this season IND
0.63Interceptions thrown1.13
0.38Interceptions caught0.25
0.13Fumbles lost0.75
0.88Fumbles forced0.63
1.25Takeaways0.88
0.75Giveaways1.88
+0.5Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DAL Offense IND
+0.170EPA per dropback-0.103
+0.9Completion % over expected-2.2
1.7%Interception rate3.1%
3.9%Sack rate taken6.9%
-0.008Rush EPA per carry+0.036
5.2%Explosive play rate4.6%
DAL Defense IND
+0.142EPA allowed per play+0.036
6.2Yards allowed per play5.99
3.0%Sack rate3.5%
0.6%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DAL, right is IND.

DAL This season IND
8Games8
255.8Pass yards/g193.8
94.1Rush yards/g116.5
14Passing TD5
5Interceptions thrown9
244.1Pass yards allowed/g226.3
152.8Rush yards allowed/g131.8
3Interceptions forced2
DAL Last season IND
278.5Pass yards/g240.3
125.6Rush yards/g118.1
31Passing TD25
12Interceptions thrown14
265.9Pass yards allowed/g262.5
125.5Rush yards allowed/g101.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott8197/302 65.2%2046255.8 14 / 56.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams8134 5283.98
Tyler Goodson528 863.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR18 60/9265.2%709 88.66
George Pickens WR28 39/6262.9%533 66.62
Jake Ferguson TE7 17/2568%115 16.43
IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones8162/268 60.4%1542192.8 5 / 95.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor8148 6104.18
Seth McGowan837 1634.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR18 30/5158.8%330 41.31
Keenan Allen WR27 36/5072%325 46.41
Tyler Warren TE6 34/4673.9%231 38.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38
IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

DAL 2026
  1. Javonte Williams RB 9 8 rush · 1 rec
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR 6 0 rush · 6 rec
  3. Jake Ferguson TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
IND 2026
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB 8 8 rush · 0 rec
  2. Tyler Warren TE 3 1 rush · 2 rec
  3. Daniel Jones QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Dallas Cowboys games

More Indianapolis Colts games