Week 5 · Sunday 09:30

PHIPHI at JAXJAX

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors

PHI moneyline+300
JAX moneyline-380
SpreadJAX -7.5
Total41.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

PHI Game status

5 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Saquon BarkleyRB Hamstring
  • Out DeVonta SmithWR Hamstring
  • Out Marquise BrownWR Ankle
  • Out Drew KendallC Knee
  • Out Marcus EppsS Groin
  • Questionable Jonathan GreenardLB Ankle
JAX Game status

1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Out Jaylon JonesCB Hamstring
  • Doubtful Eric MurrayS Concussion

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PHI This season JAX
47 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 64
43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 64
51 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 62
47 Overall 63
QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59 Last season QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PHI Per game, this season JAX
1.00Interceptions thrown0.50
0.50Interceptions caught1.50
0.25Fumbles lost0.00
0.75Fumbles forced1.00
1.25Takeaways2.50
1.25Giveaways0.50
0Net turnover margin+2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PHI Offense JAX
-0.032EPA per dropback+0.175
+1.4Completion % over expected+3.9
2.4%Interception rate2.1%
7.9%Sack rate taken6.9%
-0.041Rush EPA per carry+0.026
4.8%Explosive play rate5.9%
PHI Defense JAX
-0.015EPA allowed per play-0.067
5.27Yards allowed per play5.67
2.6%Sack rate3.4%
1.0%Interception rate forced2.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PHI, right is JAX.

PHI This season JAX
4Games4
178.3Pass yards/g210.8
109Rush yards/g117.3
7Passing TD8
4Interceptions thrown2
227.8Pass yards allowed/g291.5
122Rush yards allowed/g74.3
2Interceptions forced6
PHI Last season JAX
203.7Pass yards/g235.2
118.2Rush yards/g117.2
27Passing TD32
7Interceptions thrown14
209.3Pass yards allowed/g233.7
121.7Rush yards allowed/g85.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts468/114 59.6%713178.3 7 / 36.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley436 1825.10
Tank Bigsby428 913.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeVonta Smith WR13 19/2770.4%235 78.31
Dontayvion Wicks WR24 12/2060%197 49.31
Dallas Goedert TE2 5/771.4%81 40.52
JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence472/104 69.2%843210.8 8 / 28.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten460 2774.62
Chris Rodriguez Jr.426 1084.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR14 16/2661.5%228 572
Jakobi Meyers WR24 13/1586.7%165 41.32
Brenton Strange TE4 14/1877.8%167 41.81

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts17314/489 64.2%3392199.5 26 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley17306 12464.17
Tank Bigsby1562 3635.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
A.J. Brown WR116 81/12863.3%1028 64.37
DeVonta Smith WR218 85/12468.5%1078 59.94
Dallas Goedert TE16 64/8971.9%624 3912
JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

PHI 2026
  1. Darius Cooper WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. Dallas Goedert TE 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  3. Jalen Hurts QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
JAX 2026
  1. Jakobi Meyers WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  2. Parker Washington WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  3. Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

Final result

PHI 17 – 19 JAX

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

PHI
Jalen Hurts QB 21/40220 yds1 TD0 INT
Dameon Pierce RB 11 car14 yds0 TD2 rec, -2 yds
Will Shipley RB 5 car6 yds1 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Darius Cooper WR 2/371 yds1 TD
Dontayvion Wicks WR 5/863 yds0 TD
Makai Lemon WR 5/743 yds0 TD
JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB 24/39331 yds2 TD1 INT
Bhayshul Tuten RB 22 car72 yds0 TD2 rec, 24 yds
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 2 car5 yds0 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Parker Washington WR 6/9124 yds2 TD
Brenton Strange TE 7/868 yds0 TD
Josh Cameron WR 3/643 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

Grading runs the morning after the game; the comparison appears once it has.

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.