Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

CARCAR at PHIPHI

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors

CAR moneyline-162
PHI moneyline+136
SpreadCAR -3
Total39.5

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCAR 59%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.6points, both teams
Leo marginPHI by 0.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Bryce Young CAR QB1 7.4371.14 295

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 4.315.914 71
Dameon Pierce PHI RB1 49.11.11 41

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR1 8.68.61.14 85
DeVonta Smith PHI WR1 8.98.113 76
Jalen Coker CAR WR2 95.81.13 61
Dontayvion Wicks PHI WR2 7.34.815 39
Makai Lemon PHI WR3 64.315 30
John Metchie III CAR WR3 4.23.81.13 21
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CAR Game status

1 out · 1 doubtful · 5 questionable

  • Out AJ DillonRB Ankle
  • Doubtful Monroe FreelingT Knee
  • Questionable Trevor EtienneRB Ankle
  • Questionable Taylor MotonT Lung
  • Questionable Damien LewisG Elbow
  • Questionable Tershawn WhartonDT Neck
  • Questionable Jaelan PhillipsLB Hamstring
PHI Game status

9 out · 1 doubtful · 1 questionable

  • Out Jalen HurtsQB Calf
  • Out Saquon BarkleyRB Hamstring
  • Out Will ShipleyRB Foot
  • Out Eli StowersTE Quadricep
  • Out Grant CalcaterraTE Back
  • Out Landon DickersonG Knee
  • Out Jalyx HuntLB Knee / Ankle
  • Out Jakorian BennettCB Knee
  • Out Michael Carter IIS Abdomen
  • Doubtful A.J. EpenesaLB Back
  • Questionable Drew KendallC Knee

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CAR This season PHI
57 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
55 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41
42 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 49
48 Overall 45
QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43 Last season QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CAR Per game, this season PHI
0.50Interceptions thrown0.80
0.75Interceptions caught0.60
0.25Fumbles lost0.20
0.75Fumbles forced1.00
1.50Takeaways1.60
0.75Giveaways1.00
+0.75Net turnover margin+0.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CAR Offense PHI
+0.088EPA per dropback-0.028
+3.0Completion % over expected-0.4
1.8%Interception rate2.0%
6.0%Sack rate taken7.1%
-0.073Rush EPA per carry-0.090
6.3%Explosive play rate4.5%
CAR Defense PHI
+0.051EPA allowed per play-0.006
5.81Yards allowed per play5.39
2.7%Sack rate2.7%
1.3%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CAR, right is PHI.

CAR This season PHI
4Games5
317Pass yards/g186.6
104.5Rush yards/g91.6
9Passing TD8
2Interceptions thrown4
242.5Pass yards allowed/g248.4
156.5Rush yards allowed/g118
3Interceptions forced3
CAR Last season PHI
198.2Pass yards/g203.7
114.4Rush yards/g118.2
25Passing TD27
13Interceptions thrown7
220.1Pass yards allowed/g209.3
122.9Rush yards allowed/g121.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young4101/162 62.3%1268317 9 / 27.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chuba Hubbard461 30653
AJ Dillon417 432.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR14 26/3966.7%385 96.32
Jalen Coker WR23 18/2281.8%222 742
Darren Waller TE4 13/1968.4%148 372
PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts589/154 57.8%933186.6 8 / 36.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley436 1825.10
Tank Bigsby428 913.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Dontayvion Wicks WR15 17/2860.7%260 521
DeVonta Smith WR23 19/2770.4%235 78.31
Dallas Goedert TE3 11/1668.8%119 39.72

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young17325/518 62.7%3275192.6 24 / 126.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rico Dowdle18241 10854.56
Chuba Hubbard16147 5573.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR118 75/12958.1%1095 60.87
Xavier Legette WR216 36/6852.9%371 23.23
Tommy Tremble TE16 30/4075%271 16.92
PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jalen Hurts17314/489 64.2%3392199.5 26 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Saquon Barkley17306 12464.17
Tank Bigsby1562 3635.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
A.J. Brown WR116 81/12863.3%1028 64.37
DeVonta Smith WR218 85/12468.5%1078 59.94
Dallas Goedert TE16 64/8971.9%624 3912

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Chuba Hubbard (CAR, 44%) and Tetairoa McMillan (CAR, 37%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CAR Leo’s chance
  1. Chuba Hubbard RB1 44% scored
  2. Tetairoa McMillan WR1 37% no TD
  3. Jalen Coker WR2 24% no TD
PHI Leo’s chance
  1. DeVonta Smith WR1 35% scored
  2. Dallas Goedert TE1 30% no TD
  3. Dontayvion Wicks WR2 21% no TD

Final result

CAR 25 – 14 PHI

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CAR
Bryce Young QB 20/39281 yds2 TD0 INT
Chuba Hubbard RB 28 car120 yds1 TD1 rec, 1 yds
Mitchell Evans TE 1 car1 yds0 TD
Trevor Etienne RB 1 car-1 yds0 TD
Jalen Coker WR 6/1397 yds0 TD
Tetairoa McMillan WR 6/986 yds0 TD
Tommy Tremble TE 4/446 yds2 TD
PHI
Tanner McKee QB 26/45215 yds1 TD0 INT
Dameon Pierce RB 12 car35 yds1 TD4 rec, 15 yds
DeVonta Smith WR 7/1475 yds1 TD
Dallas Goedert TE 6/861 yds0 TD
Dontayvion Wicks WR 2/424 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCAR 59%—CAR wonNO PICK
Total points45.639.539no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginPHI by 0.9CAR −3CAR by 11PHI +3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bryce Young CAR 239.5295 OVER 281 14 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chuba Hubbard CAR 72.571 no side 120 49 More carries (28 vs 15.9 expected) NO LEAN
Dameon Pierce PHI 51.541 UNDER 35 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jalen Coker CAR 58.561 no side 97 36 More targets (13 vs 5.8 expected) NO LEAN
Dontayvion Wicks PHI 30.539 OVER 24 15 Fewer targets (4 vs 4.8 expected) WRONG
Makai Lemon PHI 20.530 OVER 19 11 Less efficient (3.2 vs 6 yds/tgt) WRONG
John Metchie III CAR —21 no side 24 3 On target
Tetairoa McMillan CAR 65.585 OVER 86 1 On target RIGHT
DeVonta Smith PHI 56.576 OVER 75 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.