Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

NYG at PHI

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · Division game

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Giants at 57%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

NYG This season PHI

46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 42

50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 37

45 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 42

48 Overall 40

QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39 Last season QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYG	Per game, this season	PHI
0.86	Interceptions thrown	0.75
0.86	Interceptions caught	0.38
0.57	Fumbles lost	0.25
0.71	Fumbles forced	0.88
1.57	Takeaways	1.25
1.43	Giveaways	1.00
+0.14	Net turnover margin	+0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYG	Offense	PHI
+0.031	EPA per dropback	-0.070
-1.6	Completion % over expected	-0.9
2.3%	Interception rate	1.9%
8.1%	Sack rate taken	7.4%
-0.020	Rush EPA per carry	-0.075
5.8%	Explosive play rate	4.0%
NYG	Defense	PHI
+0.029	EPA allowed per play	+0.034
5.65	Yards allowed per play	5.54
2.7%	Sack rate	2.5%
1.2%	Interception rate forced	0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYG, right is PHI.

NYG	This season	PHI
7	Games	8
243.1	Pass yards/g	196.4
116.7	Rush yards/g	88.1
11	Passing TD	10
6	Interceptions thrown	6
192.1	Pass yards allowed/g	244
128.1	Rush yards allowed/g	131.9
6	Interceptions forced	3
NYG	Last season	PHI
217.8	Pass yards/g	203.7
129.1	Rush yards/g	118.2
21	Passing TD	27
10	Interceptions thrown	7
229.9	Pass yards allowed/g	209.3
145.3	Rush yards allowed/g	121.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jameis Winston	6	90/158	57%	957	159.5	7 / 5	6.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Cam Skattebo	6	98	418	4.3	2
Najee Harris	5	31	99	3.2	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Malik Nabers WR1	7	48/70	68.6%	605	86.4	2
Malachi Fields WR2	7	16/30	53.3%	248	35.4	1
Isaiah Likely TE	7	41/63	65.1%	395	56.4	5

PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB42

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jalen Hurts	5	89/154	57.8%	933	186.6	8 / 3	6.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Saquon Barkley	6	56	274	4.9	2
Dameon Pierce	3	37	96	2.6	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Makai Lemon WR1	8	31/45	68.9%	251	31.4	1
DeVonta Smith WR2	4	26/41	63.4%	310	77.5	2
Dallas Goedert TE	6	26/35	74.3%	258	43	2

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jaxson Dart	14	216/339	63.7%	2272	162.3	15 / 5	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	15	176	740	4.2	2
Devin Singletary	17	119	437	3.7	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR1	16	92/140	65.7%	1014	63.4	4
Darius Slayton WR2	14	37/63	58.7%	538	38.4	1
Theo Johnson TE	15	45/74	60.8%	528	35.2	5

PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jalen Hurts	17	314/489	64.2%	3392	199.5	26 / 6	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Saquon Barkley	17	306	1246	4.1	7
Tank Bigsby	15	62	363	5.9	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
A.J. Brown WR1	16	81/128	63.3%	1028	64.3	7
DeVonta Smith WR2	18	85/124	68.5%	1078	59.9	4
Dallas Goedert TE	16	64/89	71.9%	624	39	12

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

NYG 2026

1. Isaiah Likely TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
3. Devin Singletary RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec

PHI 2026

1. Darius Cooper WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. Dallas Goedert TE 2 0 rush · 2 rec
3. Saquon Barkley RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.