Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

JAX at TEN

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Jaguars at 78%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

JAX This season TEN

67 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 36

66 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 37

65 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38

66 Overall 37

QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62 Last season QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

JAX	Per game, this season	TEN
0.50	Interceptions thrown	0.63
1.38	Interceptions caught	1.00
0.25	Fumbles lost	0.63
0.63	Fumbles forced	0.50
2.00	Takeaways	1.50
0.75	Giveaways	1.25
+1.25	Net turnover margin	+0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

JAX	Offense	TEN
+0.217	EPA per dropback	-0.121
+1.1	Completion % over expected	-1.6
2.0%	Interception rate	1.8%
5.8%	Sack rate taken	6.3%
+0.004	Rush EPA per carry	-0.050
6.4%	Explosive play rate	4.8%
JAX	Defense	TEN
-0.109	EPA allowed per play	+0.072
5.45	Yards allowed per play	6.02
3.1%	Sack rate	3.9%
2.2%	Interception rate forced	1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is JAX, right is TEN.

JAX	This season	TEN
8	Games	8
242.5	Pass yards/g	185.4
117.1	Rush yards/g	99.5
18	Passing TD	6
4	Interceptions thrown	5
238.4	Pass yards allowed/g	272.8
89.3	Rush yards allowed/g	124.1
11	Interceptions forced	8
JAX	Last season	TEN
235.2	Pass yards/g	190.6
117.2	Rush yards/g	93.5
32	Passing TD	15
14	Interceptions thrown	8
233.7	Pass yards allowed/g	248.3
85.2	Rush yards allowed/g	114.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Trevor Lawrence	8	146/224	65.2%	1932	241.5	18 / 4	8.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bhayshul Tuten	8	122	521	4.3	4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	8	55	228	4.1	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Parker Washington WR1	8	29/55	52.7%	493	61.6	5
Jakobi Meyers WR2	8	26/37	70.3%	374	46.8	2
Brenton Strange TE	8	30/37	81.1%	356	44.5	1

TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Cam Ward	8	155/248	62.5%	1483	185.4	6 / 5	6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tony Pollard	8	133	595	4.5	6
Tyjae Spears	6	18	66	3.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Carnell Tate WR1	7	34/51	66.7%	413	59	1
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2	8	35/50	70%	262	32.8	3
Gunnar Helm TE	7	17/26	65.4%	160	22.9	0

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Trevor Lawrence	18	359/590	60.8%	4214	234.1	32 / 14	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Travis Etienne	18	270	1174	4.3	7
Bhayshul Tuten	16	87	358	4.1	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Parker Washington WR1	17	65/107	60.7%	954	56.1	6
Brian Thomas Jr. WR2	15	50/93	53.8%	728	48.5	3
Brenton Strange TE	13	48/65	73.8%	549	42.2	3

TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Cam Ward	17	323/540	59.8%	3169	186.4	15 / 7	5.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tony Pollard	17	242	1082	4.5	5
Tyjae Spears	13	72	283	3.9	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Elic Ayomanor WR1	16	41/89	46.1%	515	32.2	4
Chimere Dike WR2	17	48/74	64.9%	423	24.9	4
Chig Okonkwo TE	17	56/79	70.9%	560	32.9	2

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

JAX 2026

1. Bhayshul Tuten RB 7 4 rush · 3 rec
2. Parker Washington WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
3. Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 4 4 rush · 0 rec

TEN 2026

1. Tony Pollard RB 6 6 rush · 0 rec
2. Wan'Dale Robinson WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Cam Ward QB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.