Week 8 · Sunday 20:20

PHI at WAS

WAS

Northwest Stadium · outdoors · Division game

PHI moneyline+225

WAS moneyline-278

SpreadWAS -6

Total40.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Washington Commanders a 65% chance to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, November 1, at Northwest Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 44.8 total points (posted total 40.5) and expects the Commanders by 0.2 (posted spread Commanders −6). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Stefon Diggs (39%) and Saquon Barkley (33%). Starting quarterbacks: Tanner McKee for the Eagles and Jayden Daniels for the Commanders.

Final: Commanders 27, Eagles 10. Leo gave the Washington Commanders a 65% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 37 points against Leo's 44.8 and the posted 40.5. Touchdowns: Saquon Barkley, Stefon Diggs and Rachaad White.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 8:04 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickWAS 65%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -278 at the read

Leo total44.8points, both teams

Leo marginWAS by 0.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Player	yds/att	att	opp adj	games	Leo
Tanner McKee PHI QB1	6.1	35.7	1	2	220
Jayden Daniels WAS QB1	6.6	28.3	1.1	4	193

Rushing yards

Player	yds/carry	car	opp adj	games	Leo
Saquon Barkley PHI RB1	4.3	9	1	5	40
Rachaad White WAS RB1	4.2	7.1	1.2	5	36
Jeremy McNichols WAS RB2	3.9	4.7	1.2	1	23
Elijah Mitchell PHI RB2	4.4	1.5	1	1	8

Receiving yards

Player	yds/tgt	tgt	opp adj	games	Leo
Stefon Diggs WAS WR1	6.3	6.6	1.1	5	48
Antonio Williams WAS WR2	8.6	4.1	1.1	6	41
Makai Lemon PHI WR1	5.9	4.9	1	7	34
Treylon Burks WAS WR3	8.6	3.3	1.1	5	34
Darius Cooper PHI WR2	9.5	2.3	1	7	26
Marquise Brown PHI WR3	5.7	3.5	1	2	24

Why Leo has the Commanders at 65%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Home field: Commanders at home in a division game. Moves Leo about 4 points toward the Commanders.
Quarterback: Jayden Daniels rates ahead of Tanner McKee in Leo's model. Moves Leo about 6 points toward the Commanders.
Offense: The Commanders offense rates ahead of the Eagles offense in Leo's model. Moves Leo about 7 points toward the Commanders.
Defense: The Eagles defense rates ahead of the Commanders defense in Leo's model. Moves Leo about 3 points toward the Eagles.
Who is out: Eagles: WR Britain Covey, WR DeVonta Smith and WR Dontayvion Wicks. Leo's win chance adjusts for the starting quarterback only; other absences are listed for context and do move the player projections.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Washington Commanders at 65%, while the margin model has Commanders by 0.2. Read it as a closer game than 65% suggests.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 8:04 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

PHI Game status

5 out · 1 questionable

Out Britain CoveyWR Knee
Out DeVonta SmithWR Hamstring
Out Dontayvion WicksWR Ankle
Out Jihaad CampbellLB Hamstring / Quadricep
Out Jonathan JonesCB Hamstring
Questionable Jakorian BennettCB Knee

WAS Game status

2 out · 3 questionable

Out Daron PayneDT Foot
Out Javon KinlawDT Knee
Questionable Treylon BurksWR Foot
Questionable John BatesTE Shoulder
Questionable Jer'Zhan NewtonDT Pectoral

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

PHI This season WAS

43 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 52

39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50

44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 35

42 Overall 43

QB 57 · OFF 52 · DEF 59 Last season QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PHI	Per game, this season	WAS
0.71	Interceptions thrown	0.17
0.43	Interceptions caught	0.50
0.14	Fumbles lost	0.17
0.86	Fumbles forced	1.00
1.29	Takeaways	1.50
0.86	Giveaways	0.33
+0.43	Net turnover margin	+1.17

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PHI	Offense	WAS
-0.050	EPA per dropback	+0.008
-1.2	Completion % over expected	+2.1
1.8%	Interception rate	1.3%
6.8%	Sack rate taken	6.8%
-0.075	Rush EPA per carry	-0.021
3.9%	Explosive play rate	5.5%
PHI	Defense	WAS
+0.027	EPA allowed per play	+0.103
5.49	Yards allowed per play	5.98
2.5%	Sack rate	3.3%
0.9%	Interception rate forced	0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PHI, right is WAS.

PHI	This season	WAS
7	Games	6
194.1	Pass yards/g	214.2
87.7	Rush yards/g	125.2
10	Passing TD	10
5	Interceptions thrown	1
247.9	Pass yards allowed/g	268
131.4	Rush yards allowed/g	100.5
3	Interceptions forced	3
PHI	Last season	WAS
203.7	Pass yards/g	195.8
118.2	Rush yards/g	134.7
27	Passing TD	19
7	Interceptions thrown	12
209.3	Pass yards allowed/g	257.1
121.7	Rush yards allowed/g	141.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

PHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB43

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jalen Hurts	5	89/154	57.8%	933	186.6	8 / 3	6.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Saquon Barkley	5	43	244	5.7	1
Dameon Pierce	3	37	96	2.6	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
DeVonta Smith WR1	4	26/41	63.4%	310	77.5	2
Makai Lemon WR2	7	25/36	69.4%	194	27.7	1
Dallas Goedert TE	5	22/31	71%	228	45.6	2

WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jayden Daniels	4	75/116	64.7%	759	189.8	5 / 0	6.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5	67	239	3.6	2
Rachaad White	5	36	145	4	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Stefon Diggs WR1	5	24/38	63.2%	214	42.8	4
Terry McLaurin WR2	5	15/27	55.6%	230	46	1
Chig Okonkwo TE	4	15/20	75%	150	37.5	0

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB57

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jalen Hurts	17	314/489	64.2%	3392	199.5	26 / 6	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Saquon Barkley	17	306	1246	4.1	7
Tank Bigsby	15	62	363	5.9	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
A.J. Brown WR1	16	81/128	63.3%	1028	64.3	7
DeVonta Smith WR2	18	85/124	68.5%	1078	59.9	4
Dallas Goedert TE	16	64/89	71.9%	624	39	12

WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Marcus Mariota	10	139/227	61.2%	1695	169.5	10 / 7	7.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	17	175	805	4.6	8
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	12	112	500	4.5	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR1	16	72/99	72.7%	727	45.4	5
Terry McLaurin WR2	10	38/60	63.3%	582	58.2	3
Zach Ertz TE	13	50/72	69.4%	504	38.8	4

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Stefon Diggs (WAS, 39%) and Saquon Barkley (PHI, 33%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.

PHI Leo’s chance

Saquon Barkley RB1 33% scored
Dallas Goedert TE1 28% no TD
Makai Lemon WR1 26% no TD

WAS Leo’s chance

Stefon Diggs WR1 39% scored
Rachaad White RB1 29% scored
Jayden Daniels QB1 29% no TD

Final result

PHI 10 – 27 WAS

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

PHI

Tanner McKee QB	23/34	212 yds	0 TD	1 INT
Saquon Barkley RB	13 car	30 yds	1 TD	1 rec, 24 yds
Elijah Mitchell RB	11 car	34 yds	0 TD	4 rec, 3 yds
Dallas Goedert TE	1 car	2 yds	0 TD	4 rec, 30 yds
Makai Lemon WR	6/9	57 yds	0 TD
Eli Stowers TE	3/3	53 yds	0 TD
Dallas Goedert TE	4/4	30 yds	0 TD

WAS

Jayden Daniels QB	16/29	217 yds	1 TD	0 INT
Rachaad White RB	11 car	55 yds	1 TD	2 rec, 5 yds
Austin Ekeler RB	8 car	36 yds	0 TD
Jeremy McNichols RB	5 car	21 yds	0 TD	1 rec, 7 yds
Treylon Burks WR	3/5	81 yds	0 TD
Antonio Williams WR	5/7	54 yds	0 TD
Stefon Diggs WR	3/6	38 yds	1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

Market	Leo expected	Line	Actual	Leo’s side and result
Winner	WAS 65%	—	WAS won	RIGHT
Total points	44.8	40.5	37	no side · within 1.5 pts
Margin	WAS by 0.2	WAS −6	WAS by 17	PHI +6 · WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Leo’s read

Passing yards

Rushing yards

Receiving yards

Why Leo has the Commanders at 65%

Injury report

Leo ratings, head to head

The turnover battle

Efficiency detail

Team comparison

This season

Quarterback Leo QB43

Running back

Receivers

Quarterback Leo QB52

Running back

Receivers

Last season

Quarterback Leo QB57

Running back

Receivers

Quarterback Leo QB46

Running back

Receivers

Touchdown props

Final result

How the game was played

How Leo’s read held up

Keep reading

More Philadelphia Eagles games

More Washington Commanders games