Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

INDIND at JAXJAX

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · Division game

IND moneyline+370
JAX moneyline-485
SpreadJAX -10
Total45.5

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 75% chance to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at EverBank Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 46.8 total points (posted total 45.5) and expects the Jaguars by 10.1 (posted spread Jaguars −10). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Jonathan Taylor (63%) and Bhayshul Tuten (45%). Starting quarterbacks: Daniel Jones for the Colts and Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars.

Final: Jaguars 42, Colts 7. Leo gave the Jacksonville Jaguars a 75% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 49 points against Leo's 46.8 and the posted 45.5. Touchdowns: Josh Downs, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten (2) and Nate Boerkircher.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickJAX 75%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -500 at the read
Leo total46.8points, both teams
Leo marginJAX by 10.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Daniel Jones IND QB1 6.333.61.27 236
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB1 7.831.20.96 205

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 4.619.70.97 79
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB1 4.214.316 65
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB2 4.46.916 33
Seth McGowan IND RB2 4.34.50.97 18

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Keenan Allen IND WR1 771.26 60
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR2 11.45.50.96 59
Parker Washington JAX WR1 7.87.10.96 52
Josh Downs IND WR2 6.16.21.27 47
Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 7.32.61.27 25
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR3 44.10.96 18

Why Leo has the Jaguars at 75%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

IND Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Anthony GouldWR Concussion
  • Out Justin WalleyCB Knee
  • Questionable Andrew OgletreeTE Knee
  • Questionable Bryce BoettcherLB Groin
JAX Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Antonio JohnsonS Ankle
  • Questionable Jakobi MeyersWR Hamstring / Ankle

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

IND This season JAX
35 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 64
46 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 65
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 58
45 Overall 61
QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49 Last season QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

IND Per game, this season JAX
1.00Interceptions thrown0.67
0.29Interceptions caught1.17
0.71Fumbles lost0.00
0.57Fumbles forced0.67
0.86Takeaways1.83
1.71Giveaways0.67
-0.86Net turnover margin+1.17

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

IND Offense JAX
-0.059EPA per dropback+0.191
-2.4Completion % over expected+1.4
2.8%Interception rate2.2%
6.5%Sack rate taken5.7%
+0.061Rush EPA per carry+0.001
5.0%Explosive play rate6.3%
IND Defense JAX
+0.023EPA allowed per play-0.052
5.85Yards allowed per play5.67
3.3%Sack rate2.9%
0.8%Interception rate forced2.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is IND, right is JAX.

IND This season JAX
7Games6
199.7Pass yards/g246.7
117.6Rush yards/g112.8
4Passing TD14
7Interceptions thrown4
227.4Pass yards allowed/g283
124.4Rush yards allowed/g72.2
2Interceptions forced7
IND Last season JAX
240.3Pass yards/g235.2
118.1Rush yards/g117.2
25Passing TD32
14Interceptions thrown14
262.5Pass yards allowed/g233.7
101.9Rush yards allowed/g85.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB35

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones7143/240 59.6%1398199.7 4 / 75.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor7140 5874.28
Seth McGowan732 1344.20

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR17 26/4656.5%307 43.90
Keenan Allen WR26 29/4367.4%258 431
Tyler Warren TE5 30/3683.3%213 42.62
JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence6120/184 65.2%1480246.7 14 / 48

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten694 3884.12
Chris Rodriguez Jr.639 1684.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR16 26/4656.5%416 69.34
Jakobi Meyers WR26 20/2871.4%285 47.52
Brenton Strange TE6 26/3378.8%279 46.51

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14
JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 63%) and Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 45%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
IND Leo’s chance
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB1 63% no TD
  2. Tyler Warren TE1 29% no TD
  3. Keenan Allen WR1 28% no TD
JAX Leo’s chance
  1. Bhayshul Tuten RB1 45% scored 2
  2. Parker Washington WR1 43% no TD
  3. Jakobi Meyers WR2 27% no TD

Final result

IND 7 – 42 JAX

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

IND
Daniel Jones QB 19/28144 yds1 TD2 INT
Jonathan Taylor RB 8 car23 yds0 TD4 rec, 24 yds
DJ Giddens RB 6 car43 yds0 TD
Seth McGowan RB 5 car29 yds0 TD
Keenan Allen WR 7/767 yds0 TD
Jonathan Taylor RB 4/524 yds0 TD
Josh Downs WR 4/523 yds1 TD
JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB 10/14210 yds3 TD0 INT
Bhayshul Tuten RB 16 car104 yds1 TD2 rec, 55 yds
Ameer Abdullah RB 6 car13 yds0 TD
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 6 car41 yds1 TD1 rec, 17 yds
Brenton Strange TE 2/255 yds0 TD
Bhayshul Tuten RB 2/255 yds1 TD
Nate Boerkircher TE 1/131 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerJAX 75%—JAX wonRIGHT
Total points46.846.549no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginJAX by 10.1JAX −10JAX by 35no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Daniel Jones IND 190.5236 OVER 144 92 Fewer attempts (28 vs 33.6 expected) WRONG
Trevor Lawrence JAX 237.5205 UNDER 210 5 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jonathan Taylor IND 48.579 OVER 23 56 Fewer carries (8 vs 19.7 expected) WRONG
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 67.565 no side 104 39 More efficient (6.5 vs 4.2 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Seth McGowan IND —18 no side 29 11 More efficient (5.8 vs 4.3 yds/carry)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX 31.533 no side 41 8 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Parker Washington JAX 68.552 UNDER 16 36 Fewer targets (2 vs 7.1 expected) RIGHT
Jakobi Meyers JAX 33.559 OVER 24 35 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.5 expected) WRONG
Josh Downs IND 34.547 OVER 23 24 Less efficient (4.6 vs 6.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Keenan Allen IND 35.560 OVER 67 7 On target RIGHT
Laquon Treadwell IND 23.525 OVER 18 7 On target WRONG
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 10.518 OVER 12 6 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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