Week 9 · Thursday 20:15

JAX at BAL

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Jaguars at 66%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

JAX This season BAL

66 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 54

67 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 55

63 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 43

65 Overall 49

QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62 Last season QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

JAX	Per game, this season	BAL
0.57	Interceptions thrown	0.38
1.29	Interceptions caught	0.50
0.14	Fumbles lost	0.63
0.57	Fumbles forced	0.88
1.86	Takeaways	1.38
0.71	Giveaways	1.00
+1.14	Net turnover margin	+0.38

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

JAX	Offense	BAL
+0.196	EPA per dropback	+0.078
+1.6	Completion % over expected	+2.4
2.1%	Interception rate	1.7%
6.3%	Sack rate taken	9.1%
+0.020	Rush EPA per carry	-0.012
6.7%	Explosive play rate	6.1%
JAX	Defense	BAL
-0.090	EPA allowed per play	+0.036
5.55	Yards allowed per play	5.6
3.2%	Sack rate	3.2%
2.1%	Interception rate forced	0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is JAX, right is BAL.

JAX	This season	BAL
7	Games	8
242.6	Pass yards/g	223.1
122.9	Rush yards/g	133.5
17	Passing TD	10
4	Interceptions thrown	3
264.3	Pass yards allowed/g	241.9
77.4	Rush yards allowed/g	102.8
9	Interceptions forced	4
JAX	Last season	BAL
235.2	Pass yards/g	192.8
117.2	Rush yards/g	156.6
32	Passing TD	23
14	Interceptions thrown	11
233.7	Pass yards allowed/g	259
85.2	Rush yards allowed/g	106.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Trevor Lawrence	7	130/198	65.7%	1690	241.4	17 / 4	8.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bhayshul Tuten	7	110	492	4.5	3
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	7	45	209	4.6	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Parker Washington WR1	7	27/48	56.3%	432	61.7	4
Jakobi Meyers WR2	7	22/31	71%	309	44.1	2
Brenton Strange TE	7	28/35	80%	334	47.7	1

BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB54

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Tyler Huntley	5	76/110	69.1%	727	145.4	4 / 1	6.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Derrick Henry	8	158	632	4	8
Justice Hill	8	24	155	6.5	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Zay Flowers WR1	7	40/58	69%	608	86.9	3
Rashod Bateman WR2	8	19/29	65.5%	288	36	1
Mark Andrews TE	8	29/41	70.7%	218	27.3	1

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Trevor Lawrence	18	359/590	60.8%	4214	234.1	32 / 14	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Travis Etienne	18	270	1174	4.3	7
Bhayshul Tuten	16	87	358	4.1	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Parker Washington WR1	17	65/107	60.7%	954	56.1	6
Brian Thomas Jr. WR2	15	50/93	53.8%	728	48.5	3
Brenton Strange TE	13	48/65	73.8%	549	42.2	3

BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Lamar Jackson	13	192/302	63.6%	2549	196.1	21 / 7	8.4

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Derrick Henry	17	307	1595	5.2	16
Keaton Mitchell	13	59	341	5.8	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Zay Flowers WR1	17	86/118	72.9%	1211	71.2	5
DeAndre Hopkins WR2	17	22/39	56.4%	330	19.4	2
Mark Andrews TE	17	48/70	68.6%	422	24.8	5

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

JAX 2026

1. Bhayshul Tuten RB 6 3 rush · 3 rec
2. Parker Washington WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec

BAL 2026

1. Derrick Henry RB 9 8 rush · 1 rec
2. Zay Flowers WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Lamar Jackson QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.