Week 6 · Sunday 09:30

HOUHOU at JAXJAX

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · Division game

HOU moneyline+120
JAX moneyline-142
SpreadJAX -2.5
Total42.5

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 8:39 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceJAX 67%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.5points, both teams
Leo marginJAX by 8.4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 7.535.51.15 293
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB1 7.929.815 237

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB1 4.314.70.95 55
Woody Marks HOU RB1 3.814.20.95 47
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB2 4.46.20.95 25

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Nico Collins HOU WR1 10.28.51.13 101
Parker Washington JAX WR1 8.56.715 62
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR2 114.915 59
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR2 8.75.21.15 55
Kayshon Boutte HOU WR3 9.93.71.15 45
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR3 6.64.415 34
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

HOU Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out David MontgomeryRB Groin
  • Out Tank DellWR Knee
  • Out Jalen PitreS Shoulder
  • Questionable Henry To'oTo'oLB Shoulder
  • Questionable Ja'Marcus IngramCB Elbow
JAX Game status

2 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Montaric BrownCB Hamstring
  • Out Ross MatiscikLS Shoulder
  • Questionable Jaylon JonesCB Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

HOU This season JAX
51 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 63
50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 63
68 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 62
59 Overall 62
QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75 Last season QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

HOU Per game, this season JAX
0.00Interceptions thrown0.60
0.40Interceptions caught1.20
0.40Fumbles lost0.00
0.80Fumbles forced0.80
1.20Takeaways2.00
0.40Giveaways0.60
+0.8Net turnover margin+1.4

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

HOU Offense JAX
+0.045EPA per dropback+0.182
+0.1Completion % over expected+2.6
0.9%Interception rate2.2%
6.2%Sack rate taken6.6%
-0.112Rush EPA per carry0.000
5.9%Explosive play rate5.9%
HOU Defense JAX
-0.088EPA allowed per play-0.082
5.21Yards allowed per play5.5
5.4%Sack rate3.2%
1.2%Interception rate forced2.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is HOU, right is JAX.

HOU This season JAX
5Games5
280.4Pass yards/g234.8
79Rush yards/g114.2
6Passing TD10
0Interceptions thrown3
256.2Pass yards allowed/g277.2
78.4Rush yards allowed/g63.8
2Interceptions forced6
HOU Last season JAX
232.5Pass yards/g235.2
108.6Rush yards/g117.2
26Passing TD32
14Interceptions thrown14
200.7Pass yards allowed/g233.7
92.7Rush yards allowed/g85.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud5119/185 64.3%1402280.4 6 / 07.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
David Montgomery552 1382.72
Woody Marks543 1493.52

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Hutchinson WR15 16/3151.6%231 46.20
Nico Collins WR23 19/2576%249 833
Dalton Schultz TE5 24/3177.4%244 48.80
JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence596/143 67.1%1174234.8 10 / 38.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten582 3494.32
Chris Rodriguez Jr.528 11342

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR15 22/3562.9%352 70.44
Jakobi Meyers WR25 15/1883.3%202 40.42
Brenton Strange TE5 21/2680.8%235 471

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443
JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Parker Washington (JAX, 41%) and Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
HOU Leo’s chance
  1. Nico Collins WR1 38% no TD
  2. Woody Marks RB1 28% no TD
  3. Dalton Schultz TE1 19% no TD
JAX Leo’s chance
  1. Parker Washington WR1 41% no TD
  2. Bhayshul Tuten RB1 38% scored 2
  3. Jakobi Meyers WR2 24% no TD

Final result

HOU 34 – 31 JAX

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

HOU
C.J. Stroud QB 24/34312 yds3 TD1 INT
Woody Marks RB 15 car56 yds0 TD2 rec, 25 yds
Jawhar Jordan RB 6 car43 yds1 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Cade Stover TE 2 car5 yds0 TD
Jaylin Noel WR 4/4107 yds1 TD
Nico Collins WR 3/574 yds0 TD
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 3/434 yds0 TD
JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB 24/41306 yds4 TD1 INT
Bhayshul Tuten RB 12 car39 yds0 TD4 rec, 48 yds
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 11 car55 yds0 TD
LeQuint Allen Jr. RB 1 car1 yds0 TD
Jakobi Meyers WR 5/1083 yds0 TD
Parker Washington WR 4/1164 yds0 TD
Travis Hunter CB 4/459 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerJAX 67%—HOU wonNO PICK
Total points44.542.565no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginJAX by 8.4JAX −2.5HOU by 3JAX −2.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Trevor Lawrence JAX 228.5237 no side 306 69 More attempts (41 vs 29.8 expected) NO LEAN
C.J. Stroud HOU 256.5293 OVER 312 19 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX 14.525 OVER 55 30 More carries (11 vs 6.2 expected) RIGHT
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 61.555 UNDER 39 16 Less efficient (3.3 vs 4.3 yds/carry) RIGHT
Woody Marks HOU 45.547 no side 56 9 More carries (15 vs 14.2 expected) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 14.555 OVER 10 45 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.2 expected) WRONG
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 18.534 OVER 0 34 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.4 expected) WRONG
Kayshon Boutte HOU 22.545 OVER 16 29 Less efficient (5.3 vs 9.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Nico Collins HOU 71.5101 OVER 74 27 Fewer targets (5 vs 8.5 expected) RIGHT
Jakobi Meyers JAX 33.559 OVER 83 24 More targets (10 vs 4.9 expected) RIGHT
Parker Washington JAX 64.562 no side 64 2 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.