Week 7 · Thursday 20:15
NE
at
CHI
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
NE moneyline+130
CHI moneyline-155
SpreadCHI -3
Total50.5
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 22, 1:43 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceCHI 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total47.8points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 0.6expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Drake Maye NE QB1 |
8.2 | 30.1 | 1 | 6 |
239 |
| Caleb Williams CHI QB1 |
7.4 | 31.6 | 1 | 3 |
237 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 |
4.6 | 15.2 | 0.9 | 6 |
61 |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE RB2 |
4.8 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 5 |
42 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB1 |
4 | 11.4 | 0.9 | 6 |
40 |
| Roschon Johnson CHI RB2 |
4.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 4 |
16 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Rome Odunze CHI WR2 |
9.7 | 6.2 | 1 | 6 |
66 |
| Luther Burden III CHI WR1 |
9.6 | 6.1 | 1 | 6 |
64 |
| A.J. Brown NE WR1 |
6.8 | 7.9 | 1 | 2 |
57 |
| DeMario Douglas NE WR2 |
8.7 | 4.2 | 1 | 6 |
40 |
| Kalif Raymond CHI WR3 |
5.6 | 3.8 | 1 | 6 |
26 |
| Efton Chism III NE WR3 |
5.8 | 1.9 | 1 | 5 |
15 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Thu, Oct 22, 4:33 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
NE
Game status
5 out · 4 questionable
- Out
Alijah Vera-TuckerG
Hamstring
- Out
Ben BrownC
Knee
- Out
Carlton Davis IIICB
Neck
- Out
Channing CanadaCB
Hamstring
- Out
Karon PruntyCB
Hamstring
- Questionable
Morgan MosesT
Foot
- Questionable
Christian EllissLB
Chest
- Questionable
Craig WoodsonS
Shoulder
- Questionable
Kevin ByardS
Chest
CHI
Game status
2 out · 1 doubtful · 1 questionable
- Out
Kyle MonangaiRB
Thumb / Toe
- Out
Jack SanbornLB
Concussion
- Doubtful
T.J. EdwardsLB
Hamstring
- Questionable
Tyrique StevensonCB
Hip
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
NE
This season
CHI
64
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
53
58
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
54
55
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
51
56
Overall
53
QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60
Last season
QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| NE |
Per game, this season |
CHI |
| 1.17 | Interceptions thrown | 0.83 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Interceptions caught | 0.50 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Fumbles lost | 1.00 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Fumbles forced | 1.00 |
|---|
| 1.50 | Takeaways | 1.50 |
|---|
| 2.17 | Giveaways | 1.83 |
|---|
| -0.67 | Net turnover margin | -0.33 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| NE |
Offense |
CHI |
| +0.170 | EPA per dropback | +0.100 |
|---|
| +6.4 | Completion % over expected | +1.4 |
|---|
| 3.0% | Interception rate | 2.2% |
|---|
| 7.3% | Sack rate taken | 5.5% |
|---|
| -0.046 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.028 |
|---|
| 7.0% | Explosive play rate | 5.9% |
|---|
| NE |
Defense |
CHI |
| -0.028 | EPA allowed per play | +0.005 |
|---|
| 5.37 | Yards allowed per play | 6.25 |
|---|
| 4.0% | Sack rate | 4.8% |
|---|
| 1.2% | Interception rate forced | 1.4% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NE, right is CHI.
| NE |
This season |
CHI |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 251.5 | Pass yards/g | 246 |
|---|
| 130.7 | Rush yards/g | 160.7 |
|---|
| 11 | Passing TD | 5 |
|---|
| 7 | Interceptions thrown | 5 |
|---|
| 227.5 | Pass yards allowed/g | 228 |
|---|
| 91.8 | Rush yards allowed/g | 90.5 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| NE |
Last season |
CHI |
| 251.8 | Pass yards/g | 242.6 |
|---|
| 126.8 | Rush yards/g | 142.6 |
|---|
| 37 | Passing TD | 32 |
|---|
| 12 | Interceptions thrown | 12 |
|---|
| 200.9 | Pass yards allowed/g | 244.6 |
|---|
| 99.2 | Rush yards allowed/g | 131.4 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
NE
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB64
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Drake Maye | 6 | 117/183 |
63.9% | 1463 | 243.8 |
11 / 7 | 8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 71 |
263 | 3.7 | 2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 49 |
194 | 4 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| DeMario Douglas WR1 | 6 |
20/30 | 66.7% | 233 |
38.8 | 3 |
| Romeo Doubs WR2 | 6 |
14/24 | 58.3% | 261 |
43.5 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry TE | 6 |
19/24 | 79.2% | 225 |
37.5 | 2 |
CHI
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB53
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 66/91 |
72.5% | 712 | 237.3 |
3 / 1 | 7.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 94 |
398 | 4.2 | 6 |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 60 |
324 | 5.4 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Luther Burden III WR1 | 6 |
31/43 | 72.1% | 361 |
60.2 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze WR2 | 6 |
20/33 | 60.6% | 312 |
52 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland TE | 6 |
19/30 | 63.3% | 175 |
29.2 | 1 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
NE
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB68
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Drake Maye | 21 | 424/612 |
69.3% | 5222 | 248.7 |
37 / 12 | 8.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 21 | 210 |
987 | 4.7 | 9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 188 |
820 | 4.4 | 7 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Stefon Diggs WR1 | 21 |
99/122 | 81.1% | 1123 |
53.5 | 5 |
| Mack Hollins WR2 | 16 |
52/75 | 69.3% | 679 |
42.4 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry TE | 21 |
69/102 | 67.6% | 880 |
41.9 | 8 |
CHI
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB53
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19 | 377/658 |
57.3% | 4560 | 240 |
31 / 12 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 255 |
1217 | 4.8 | 10 |
| Kyle Monangai | 19 | 190 |
846 | 4.5 | 5 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Rome Odunze WR1 | 14 |
48/102 | 47.1% | 749 |
53.5 | 6 |
| DJ Moore WR2 | 19 |
61/100 | 61% | 798 |
42 | 8 |
| Colston Loveland TE | 18 |
70/107 | 65.4% | 906 |
50.3 | 6 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: D'Andre Swift (CHI, 54%) and Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, 35%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NE
Leo’s chance
- Rhamondre Stevenson
RB1
35%
- A.J. Brown
WR1
33%
- TreVeyon Henderson
RB2
23%
CHI
Leo’s chance
- D'Andre Swift
RB1
54%
- Luther Burden III
WR1
30%
- Caleb Williams
QB1
24%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.