Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

CHICHI at ATLATL

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed

CHI moneyline-118
ATL moneyline-102
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total51.5

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceATL 57%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total48.5points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 1.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Caleb Williams CHI QB1 7.130.51.12 226
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB1 8.427.713 216

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 5.119.40.95 88
D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 4.715.10.95 63
Brian Robinson ATL RB2 4.19.10.95 34
Roschon Johnson CHI RB2 4.22.10.93 9

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Drake London ATL WR1 12.8815 101
Rome Odunze CHI WR2 8.66.41.15 63
Luther Burden III CHI WR1 8.35.91.15 56
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 9.63.215 33
Kalif Raymond CHI WR3 6.64.11.15 32
Zachariah Branch ATL WR3 51.715 12
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CHI Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Kyle MonangaiRB Thumb / Toe
  • Out Dayo OdeyingboDE Quadricep
  • Out Keyshaun ElliottLB Quadricep
  • Out T.J. EdwardsLB Hamstring
  • Questionable Caleb WilliamsQB Hamstring
  • Questionable Kyler GordonCB Calf
  • Questionable Tyrique StevensonCB Hip
ATL Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out C.J. HendersonCB Groin
  • Questionable Za'Darius SmithDE Neck

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CHI This season ATL
49 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
54 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 47
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 53
50 Overall 50
QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48 Last season QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CHI Per game, this season ATL
1.00Interceptions thrown1.40
0.60Interceptions caught0.20
1.00Fumbles lost0.40
0.60Fumbles forced0.80
1.20Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways1.80
-0.8Net turnover margin-0.8

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CHI Offense ATL
+0.080EPA per dropback-0.052
-0.2Completion % over expected-4.6
2.4%Interception rate3.6%
5.0%Sack rate taken6.2%
+0.010Rush EPA per carry+0.007
6.1%Explosive play rate6.1%
CHI Defense ATL
+0.035EPA allowed per play-0.008
6.3Yards allowed per play5.4
4.2%Sack rate4.3%
1.5%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CHI, right is ATL.

CHI This season ATL
5Games5
234.2Pass yards/g208.2
173.2Rush yards/g166.8
4Passing TD4
5Interceptions thrown7
228.6Pass yards allowed/g261.4
96Rush yards allowed/g80.2
3Interceptions forced1
CHI Last season ATL
242.6Pass yards/g217.8
142.6Rush yards/g125.8
32Passing TD19
12Interceptions thrown8
244.6Pass yards allowed/g221.9
131.4Rush yards allowed/g126.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyson Bagent342/64 65.6%409136.3 0 / 36.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift578 3544.54
Kyle Monangai460 3245.43

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Luther Burden III WR15 23/3565.7%266 53.21
Rome Odunze WR25 17/2958.6%273 54.60
Colston Loveland TE5 13/2356.5%110 220
ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.352/77 67.5%719239.7 3 / 19.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson5102 5805.74
Brian Robinson551 2104.14

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR15 27/3675%488 97.60
Jahan Dotson WR25 8/1747.1%149 29.81
Kyle Pitts TE5 10/1566.7%109 21.81

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36
ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Bijan Robinson (ATL, 63%) and D'Andre Swift (CHI, 49%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CHI Leo’s chance
  1. D'Andre Swift RB1 49% scored 2
  2. Luther Burden III WR1 29% no TD
  3. Caleb Williams QB1 25% no TD
ATL Leo’s chance
  1. Bijan Robinson RB1 63% no TD
  2. Drake London WR1 34% no TD
  3. Brian Robinson RB2 24% no TD

Final result

CHI 31 – 23 ATL

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CHI
Caleb Williams QB 30/36305 yds1 TD0 INT
D'Andre Swift RB 16 car44 yds2 TD4 rec, 26 yds
Roschon Johnson RB 13 car51 yds1 TD2 rec, 34 yds
Luther Burden III WR 8/895 yds0 TD
Colston Loveland TE 6/765 yds1 TD
Rome Odunze WR 3/439 yds0 TD
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB 19/33225 yds3 TD0 INT
Bijan Robinson RB 9 car61 yds0 TD2 rec, -8 yds
Brian Robinson RB 2 car1 yds0 TD2 rec, 9 yds
Jahan Dotson WR 3/587 yds1 TD
Drake London WR 4/1062 yds0 TD
Kyle Pitts TE 5/760 yds2 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerATL 57%—CHI wonNO PICK
Total points48.551.554no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginCHI by 1.8CHI −1.5CHI by 8no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Caleb Williams CHI 227.5226 no side 305 79 More efficient (8.5 vs 7.1 yds/att) NO LEAN
Michael Penix Jr. ATL 236.5216 UNDER 225 9 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Roschon Johnson CHI 19.59 UNDER 51 42 More carries (13 vs 2.1 expected) WRONG
Brian Robinson ATL 31.534 OVER 1 33 Fewer carries (2 vs 9.1 expected) WRONG
Bijan Robinson ATL 91.588 no side 61 27 Fewer carries (9 vs 19.4 expected) NO LEAN
D'Andre Swift CHI 63.563 no side 44 19 Less efficient (2.8 vs 4.7 yds/carry) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jahan Dotson ATL 25.533 OVER 87 54 More efficient (17.4 vs 9.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Luther Burden III CHI 52.556 OVER 95 39 More efficient (11.9 vs 8.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Drake London ATL 89.5101 OVER 62 39 Less efficient (6.2 vs 12.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rome Odunze CHI 43.563 OVER 39 24 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.4 expected) WRONG
Kalif Raymond CHI 26.532 OVER 18 14 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.1 expected) WRONG
Zachariah Branch ATL —12 no side 9 3 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.