Week 10 · Sunday 09:30

NE at DET

FC Bayern Munich Stadium · dome · fieldturf

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Lions at 53%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

NE This season DET

64 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 66

59 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 64

49 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 48

54 Overall 56

QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60 Last season QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NE	Per game, this season	DET
1.22	Interceptions thrown	0.25
0.56	Interceptions caught	0.75
0.89	Fumbles lost	0.38
0.67	Fumbles forced	0.50
1.22	Takeaways	1.25
2.11	Giveaways	0.63
-0.89	Net turnover margin	+0.63

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NE	Offense	DET
+0.161	EPA per dropback	+0.215
+6.9	Completion % over expected	+1.5
3.3%	Interception rate	0.9%
7.7%	Sack rate taken	6.4%
-0.039	Rush EPA per carry	-0.079
7.5%	Explosive play rate	5.8%
NE	Defense	DET
+0.012	EPA allowed per play	+0.042
5.61	Yards allowed per play	5.74
4.4%	Sack rate	5.0%
1.0%	Interception rate forced	1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NE, right is DET.

NE	This season	DET
9	Games	8
261	Pass yards/g	268.1
119.9	Rush yards/g	127.8
18	Passing TD	15
11	Interceptions thrown	2
250.7	Pass yards allowed/g	283.1
96.7	Rush yards allowed/g	94.1
5	Interceptions forced	6
NE	Last season	DET
251.8	Pass yards/g	268.6
126.8	Rush yards/g	120.1
37	Passing TD	35
12	Interceptions thrown	8
200.9	Pass yards allowed/g	236.9
99.2	Rush yards allowed/g	114.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Drake Maye	9	178/272	65.4%	2282	253.6	18 / 11	8.4

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	102	399	3.9	2
TreVeyon Henderson	6	52	203	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
DeMario Douglas WR1	9	31/46	67.4%	434	48.2	4
Mack Hollins WR2	5	18/26	69.2%	245	49	1
Hunter Henry TE	9	32/37	86.5%	361	40.1	2

DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jared Goff	8	185/273	67.8%	2134	266.8	15 / 2	7.8

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	8	177	847	4.8	9
Sione Vaki	8	30	135	4.5	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1	8	61/86	70.9%	657	82.1	5
Jameson Williams WR2	8	28/46	60.9%	468	58.5	5
Sam LaPorta TE	8	35/49	71.4%	399	49.9	3

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Drake Maye	21	424/612	69.3%	5222	248.7	37 / 12	8.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
TreVeyon Henderson	21	210	987	4.7	9
Rhamondre Stevenson	18	188	820	4.4	7

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Stefon Diggs WR1	21	99/122	81.1%	1123	53.5	5
Mack Hollins WR2	16	52/75	69.3%	679	42.4	3
Hunter Henry TE	21	69/102	67.6%	880	41.9	8

DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jared Goff	17	393/578	68%	4564	268.5	34 / 8	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	17	243	1223	5	13
David Montgomery	17	158	716	4.5	8

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1	17	117/172	68%	1401	82.4	11
Jameson Williams WR2	17	65/102	63.7%	1117	65.7	7
Sam LaPorta TE	9	40/49	81.6%	489	54.3	3

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

NE 2026

1. Rhamondre Stevenson RB 4 2 rush · 2 rec
2. DeMario Douglas WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Drake Maye QB 3 3 rush · 0 rec

DET 2026

1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB 11 9 rush · 2 rec
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
3. Jameson Williams WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.