Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

NYJNYJ at KCKC

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

NYJ moneyline+380
KC moneyline-500
SpreadKC -9.5
Total46.5

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 72% chance to beat the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon, November 8, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Week 9. That is above 60%, but the price is past the -230 limit, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 47 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Chiefs by 10.4 (posted spread Chiefs −9.5). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread PASS and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: Geno Smith for the Jets and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSKC -500, too expensive (limit -230)
SpreadPASSLeo within 1 point of the line
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceKC 72%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total47points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 10.4expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Chiefs at 72%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

NYJ This season KC
51 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 56
48 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 62
40 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 52
44 Overall 57
QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29 Last season QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYJ Per game, this season KC
0.38Interceptions thrown0.57
0.13Interceptions caught0.86
0.38Fumbles lost0.00
1.25Fumbles forced0.71
1.38Takeaways1.57
0.75Giveaways0.57
+0.63Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYJ Offense KC
+0.037EPA per dropback+0.102
+2.6Completion % over expected+0.6
1.7%Interception rate1.8%
9.5%Sack rate taken5.1%
-0.092Rush EPA per carry+0.060
5.3%Explosive play rate5.8%
NYJ Defense KC
+0.057EPA allowed per play-0.028
5.4Yards allowed per play5.2
3.4%Sack rate2.4%
0.1%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYJ, right is KC.

NYJ This season KC
8Games7
239.1Pass yards/g256.4
105.1Rush yards/g134.1
12Passing TD12
3Interceptions thrown4
208.4Pass yards allowed/g228.4
123.6Rush yards allowed/g96.3
1Interceptions forced6
NYJ Last season KC
163.8Pass yards/g232.2
123.3Rush yards/g106.6
15Passing TD23
13Interceptions thrown12
226.4Pass yards allowed/g205.1
139.5Rush yards allowed/g105.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith8165/239 69%1913239.1 12 / 38

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Braelon Allen8112 56553
Breece Hall351 1633.21

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR18 43/6368.3%527 65.93
Adonai Mitchell WR24 16/2759.3%265 66.31
Kenyon Sadiq TE8 17/2763%186 23.31
KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes7154/232 66.4%1795256.4 12 / 47.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III7141 7705.56
Emmett Johnson720 773.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Worthy WR17 27/4165.9%230 32.91
Rashee Rice WR24 20/2580%243 60.82
Travis Kelce TE7 29/4269%410 58.62

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41
KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

NYJ 2026
  1. Garrett Wilson WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. Braelon Allen RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  3. Isaiah Williams WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
KC 2026
  1. Kenneth Walker III RB 8 6 rush · 2 rec
  2. Travis Kelce TE 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  3. Tyquan Thornton WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More New York Jets games

More Kansas City Chiefs games