Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

LVLV at NYJNYJ

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

LV moneyline+105
NYJ moneyline-125
SpreadNYJ -1.5
Total46.5

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the New York Jets a 56% chance to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at MetLife Stadium, in Week 8. Neither team is above 60%, so Leo calls it too close to call. Leo projects 45.4 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Jets by 2.3 (posted spread Jets −1.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Ashton Jeanty (49%) and Breece Hall (44%). Starting quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins for the Raiders and Geno Smith for the Jets.

Final: Raiders 38, Jets 33. Leo gave the New York Jets a 56% chance, so the winner read was wrong. The game totaled 71 points against Leo's 45.4 and the posted 46.5. Touchdowns: Kirk Cousins, Jalen Nailor, Brock Bowers (2), Isaiah Williams, Braelon Allen and Adonai Mitchell.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Too close to callNYJ 56%under 60%, so no pick; win chance only
Leo total45.4points, both teams
Leo marginNYJ by 2.3expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 7.629.61.17 234
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 7.235.40.97 223

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Breece Hall NYJ RB1 4.215.31.23 76
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 3.715.11.17 64
Braelon Allen NYJ RB2 4.5121.27 64
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 4.65.61.17 30

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ WR3 22.64.51.13 112
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 8.57.91.17 76
Tre Tucker LV WR1 10.26.30.97 62
Adonai Mitchell NYJ WR2 7.751.13 45
Jack Bech LV WR3 8.12.90.92 25
Jalen Nailor LV WR2 4.440.95 19

Why Leo has the Jets at 56%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LV Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Carter RunyonTE Foot
  • Out Patrick JohnsonDE Stinger
  • Questionable Jack BechWR Forearm
  • Questionable Jackson Powers-JohnsonG Back
NYJ Game status

3 out · 1 doubtful · 2 questionable

  • Out Max MitchellT Concussion
  • Out Joseph OssaiDE Ankle
  • Out T'Vondre SweatDT Knee
  • Doubtful David BaileyDE Groin
  • Questionable Breece HallRB Quadricep
  • Questionable Dylan ParhamG Knee

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

LV This season NYJ
48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 42
42 Overall 43
QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47 Last season QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LV Per game, this season NYJ
0.71Interceptions thrown0.29
0.71Interceptions caught0.14
0.14Fumbles lost0.43
1.71Fumbles forced1.43
2.43Takeaways1.57
0.86Giveaways0.71
+1.57Net turnover margin+0.86

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LV Offense NYJ
+0.032EPA per dropback+0.009
-1.3Completion % over expected+1.8
2.5%Interception rate1.6%
6.3%Sack rate taken9.8%
-0.270Rush EPA per carry-0.113
5.3%Explosive play rate4.7%
LV Defense NYJ
+0.043EPA allowed per play+0.045
5.85Yards allowed per play5.37
3.5%Sack rate3.6%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LV, right is NYJ.

LV This season NYJ
7Games7
276.9Pass yards/g231.9
74.7Rush yards/g96.4
16Passing TD10
5Interceptions thrown2
245.1Pass yards allowed/g202.9
143.6Rush yards allowed/g127.7
5Interceptions forced1
LV Last season NYJ
195Pass yards/g163.8
77.5Rush yards/g123.3
20Passing TD15
19Interceptions thrown13
214.4Pass yards allowed/g226.4
116.8Rush yards allowed/g139.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins7161/257 62.6%1877268.1 16 / 57.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty7106 3283.11
Mike Washington Jr.740 1954.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR17 29/4761.7%474 67.74
Jalen Nailor WR25 8/2040%75 150
Brock Bowers TE5 34/5166.7%455 913
NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith7145/207 70%1623231.9 10 / 27.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Braelon Allen791 4184.62
Breece Hall351 1633.21

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 37/5172.5%444 63.43
Adonai Mitchell WR23 9/1850%123 410
Kenyon Sadiq TE7 16/2564%164 23.41

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77
NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Ashton Jeanty (LV, 49%) and Breece Hall (NYJ, 44%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LV Leo’s chance
  1. Ashton Jeanty RB1 49% no TD
  2. Brock Bowers TE1 39% scored 2
  3. Tre Tucker WR1 34% no TD
NYJ Leo’s chance
  1. Breece Hall RB1 44% no TD
  2. Garrett Wilson WR1 38% no TD
  3. Braelon Allen RB2 25% scored

Final result

LV 38 – 33 NYJ

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LV
Kirk Cousins QB 19/26247 yds3 TD0 INT
Mike Washington Jr. RB 25 car83 yds0 TD
Ashton Jeanty RB 2 car9 yds0 TD3 rec, 64 yds
Connor Heyward FB 1 car0 yds0 TD
Brock Bowers TE 7/1092 yds2 TD
Ashton Jeanty RB 3/464 yds0 TD
Michael Mayer TE 5/653 yds0 TD
NYJ
Geno Smith QB 20/32290 yds2 TD1 INT
Braelon Allen RB 21 car147 yds1 TD2 rec, 6 yds
Isaiah Davis RB 5 car15 yds0 TD
Adonai Mitchell WR 7/9142 yds1 TD
Garrett Wilson WR 6/1283 yds0 TD
Kenyon Sadiq TE 1/222 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNYJ 56%—LV wonNO PICK
Total points45.446.571no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNYJ by 2.3NYJ −1.5LV by 5no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Geno Smith NYJ 225.5234 no side 290 56 More efficient (9.1 vs 7.6 yds/att) NO LEAN
Kirk Cousins LV 231.5223 no side 247 24 Fewer attempts (26 vs 35.4 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Braelon Allen NYJ 79.564 UNDER 147 83 More efficient (7 vs 4.5 yds/carry) WRONG
Ashton Jeanty LV 49.564 OVER 9 55 Fewer carries (2 vs 15.1 expected) WRONG
Mike Washington Jr. LV 31.530 no side 83 53 More carries (25 vs 5.6 expected) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Adonai Mitchell NYJ 25.545 OVER 142 97 More efficient (15.8 vs 7.7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Tre Tucker LV 48.562 OVER 0 62 Fewer targets (1 vs 6.3 expected) WRONG
Jalen Nailor LV 16.519 OVER 38 19 More efficient (9.5 vs 4.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Garrett Wilson NYJ 63.576 OVER 83 7 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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