Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

MINMIN at DETDET

Ford Field · dome · Division game

MIN moneyline+142
DET moneyline-170
SpreadDET -3
Total46.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Detroit Lions a 69% chance to beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Ford Field, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 46.9 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Vikings by 0.2 (posted spread Lions −3). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Jahmyr Gibbs (72%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (53%). Starting quarterbacks: Kyler Murray for the Vikings and Jared Goff for the Lions.

Final: Lions 19, Vikings 15. Leo gave the Detroit Lions a 69% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 34 points against Leo's 46.9 and the posted 46.5. Touchdowns: T.J. Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickDET 69%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -170 at the read
Leo total46.9points, both teams
Leo marginMIN by 0.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jared Goff DET QB1 836.40.96 240
Kyler Murray MIN QB1 6.327.11.25 189

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB1 4.92116 101
Aaron Jones MIN RB1 4.316.20.96 62
Jordan Mason MIN RB2 4.513.10.92 53
Sione Vaki DET RB2 4.22.316 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR1 8.410.90.96 82
Justin Jefferson MIN WR1 77.21.26 62
Jameson Williams DET WR2 10.96.20.96 62
Jordan Addison MIN WR2 7.65.21.25 49
Isaac TeSlaa DET WR3 6.32.90.96 19
Tai Felton MIN WR3 5.71.11.24 11

Why Leo has the Lions at 69%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Detroit Lions at 69%, while the margin model has Vikings by 0.2. Read it as a closer game than 69% suggests.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

MIN Game status

1 questionable

  • Questionable Jay WardS Knee
DET Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Kerby JosephS Knee
  • Questionable Roger McCrearyCB Foot

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

MIN This season DET
36 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 71
36 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 68
79 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 46
57 Overall 57
QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62 Last season QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIN Per game, this season DET
0.33Interceptions thrown0.00
1.17Interceptions caught0.67
0.33Fumbles lost0.50
0.83Fumbles forced0.67
2.00Takeaways1.33
0.67Giveaways0.50
+1.33Net turnover margin+0.83

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIN Offense DET
-0.084EPA per dropback+0.257
-0.9Completion % over expected+1.3
2.5%Interception rate0.5%
10.3%Sack rate taken5.6%
-0.116Rush EPA per carry-0.087
4.9%Explosive play rate6.5%
MIN Defense DET
-0.150EPA allowed per play+0.068
4.95Yards allowed per play5.78
5.6%Sack rate4.8%
1.5%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIN, right is DET.

MIN This season DET
6Games6
181.3Pass yards/g298
119.3Rush yards/g115
6Passing TD14
2Interceptions thrown0
180.8Pass yards allowed/g313.5
97.8Rush yards allowed/g99.2
7Interceptions forced4
MIN Last season DET
188.7Pass yards/g268.6
108.3Rush yards/g120.1
18Passing TD35
21Interceptions thrown8
177.7Pass yards allowed/g236.9
124.1Rush yards allowed/g114.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kyler Murray583/125 66.4%812162.4 3 / 26.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Aaron Jones6105 4364.22
Jordan Mason230 1274.21

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR15 23/3174.2%302 60.43
Jordan Addison WR25 13/2552%183 36.61
T.J. Hockenson TE6 27/3284.4%237 39.52
DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff6150/223 67.3%1788298 14 / 08

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs6134 6204.67
Sione Vaki616 563.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR16 46/6867.6%525 87.55
Jameson Williams WR26 23/3860.5%367 61.24
Sam LaPorta TE6 28/3971.8%334 55.73

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
J.J. McCarthy10140/243 57.6%1632163.2 11 / 126.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason16159 7584.86
Aaron Jones12132 5484.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR117 84/14159.6%1048 61.62
Jordan Addison WR214 42/7953.2%610 43.63
T.J. Hockenson TE15 51/6677.3%438 29.23
DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff17393/578 68%4564268.5 34 / 87.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17243 1223513
David Montgomery17158 7164.58

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR117 117/17268%1401 82.411
Jameson Williams WR217 65/10263.7%1117 65.77
Sam LaPorta TE9 40/4981.6%489 54.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 72%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, 53%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
MIN Leo’s chance
  1. Aaron Jones RB1 40% no TD
  2. Justin Jefferson WR1 31% scored
  3. Jordan Mason RB2 25% no TD
DET Leo’s chance
  1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 72% scored
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 53% no TD
  3. Jameson Williams WR2 31% scored

Final result

MIN 15 – 19 DET

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

MIN
Kyler Murray QB 17/29210 yds2 TD1 INT
Jordan Mason RB 8 car20 yds0 TD
Aaron Jones RB 5 car22 yds0 TD2 rec, 18 yds
DeeJay Dallas RB 1 car4 yds0 TD
Jordan Addison WR 3/866 yds0 TD
T.J. Hockenson TE 4/558 yds1 TD
Justin Jefferson WR 5/933 yds1 TD
DET
Jared Goff QB 18/25176 yds1 TD1 INT
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 23 car153 yds1 TD2 rec, 15 yds
Sione Vaki RB 11 car65 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 1 car10 yds0 TD7 rec, 46 yds
Jameson Williams WR 4/670 yds1 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 7/846 yds0 TD
Sam LaPorta TE 3/533 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDET 69%—DET wonRIGHT
Total points46.946.534no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginMIN by 0.2DET −3DET by 4MIN +3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jared Goff DET 257.5240 UNDER 176 64 Fewer attempts (25 vs 36.4 expected) RIGHT
Kyler Murray MIN 224.5189 UNDER 210 21 More efficient (7.2 vs 6.3 yds/att) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Sione Vaki DET 5.511 OVER 65 54 More carries (11 vs 2.3 expected) RIGHT
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 89.5101 OVER 153 52 More efficient (6.7 vs 4.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Aaron Jones MIN 27.562 OVER 22 40 Fewer carries (5 vs 16.2 expected) WRONG
Jordan Mason MIN 49.553 OVER 20 33 Fewer carries (8 vs 13.1 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 77.582 OVER 46 36 Fewer targets (8 vs 10.9 expected) WRONG
Justin Jefferson MIN 75.562 UNDER 33 29 Less efficient (3.7 vs 7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jordan Addison MIN 38.549 OVER 66 17 More targets (8 vs 5.2 expected) RIGHT
Jameson Williams DET 51.562 OVER 70 8 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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