Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

BUFBUF at NYJNYJ

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · Division game

BUF moneyline-440
NYJ moneyline+340
SpreadBUF -7.5
Total50.5

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo gives the Buffalo Bills a 73% chance to beat the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon, November 15, at MetLife Stadium, in Week 10. That is above 60%, but the price is past the -230 limit, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 51.7 total points (posted total 50.5) and expects the Bills by 10 (posted spread Bills −7.5). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread BUF -7.5 and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: Josh Allen for the Bills and Geno Smith for the Jets.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 9), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSBUF -440, too expensive (limit -230)
SpreadBUF -7.5Leo BUF by 10
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceBUF 73%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total51.7points, both teams
Leo marginBUF by 10expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Bills at 73%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

BUF This season NYJ
67 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
73 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 45
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38
59 Overall 42
QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52 Last season QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BUF Per game, this season NYJ
0.71Interceptions thrown0.33
0.57Interceptions caught0.11
0.86Fumbles lost0.44
0.71Fumbles forced1.44
1.29Takeaways1.56
1.57Giveaways0.78
-0.29Net turnover margin+0.78

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BUF Offense NYJ
+0.240EPA per dropback+0.008
+4.1Completion % over expected+1.6
2.3%Interception rate1.6%
6.4%Sack rate taken9.8%
+0.080Rush EPA per carry-0.109
7.8%Explosive play rate4.9%
BUF Defense NYJ
+0.037EPA allowed per play+0.064
5.56Yards allowed per play5.46
3.3%Sack rate3.4%
1.1%Interception rate forced0.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BUF, right is NYJ.

BUF This season NYJ
7Games9
256.1Pass yards/g230.9
148.4Rush yards/g105.2
11Passing TD12
5Interceptions thrown3
269Pass yards allowed/g212.1
97.4Rush yards allowed/g128
4Interceptions forced1
BUF Last season NYJ
238.8Pass yards/g163.8
156.6Rush yards/g123.3
33Passing TD15
12Interceptions thrown13
177.9Pass yards allowed/g226.4
133.6Rush yards allowed/g139.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen7135/205 65.9%1793256.1 11 / 58.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook7138 7075.17
Ray Davis611 423.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR17 27/3871.1%354 50.61
DJ Moore WR25 16/2759.3%260 522
Dalton Kincaid TE7 27/3577.1%401 57.32
NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith9183/271 67.5%2078230.9 12 / 37.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Braelon Allen9120 59853
Breece Hall466 2243.41

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR18 43/6368.3%527 65.93
Adonai Mitchell WR25 16/3447.1%265 531
Kenyon Sadiq TE9 21/3167.7%235 26.11

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77
NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

BUF 2026
  1. Josh Allen QB 9 9 rush · 0 rec
  2. James Cook RB 7 7 rush · 0 rec
  3. Keon Coleman WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
NYJ 2026
  1. Garrett Wilson WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. Braelon Allen RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  3. Isaiah Williams WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 10 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

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