Week 7 · Sunday 16:25
GB
at
DET
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf · Division game
GB moneyline+154
DET moneyline-185
SpreadDET -3.5
Total55.5
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceDET 67%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total53.2points, both teams
Leo marginDET by 4.6expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Jordan Love GB QB1 |
7.5 | 35.9 | 1.2 | 6 |
303 |
| Jared Goff DET QB1 |
7.8 | 37 | 0.9 | 5 |
258 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB1 |
4.9 | 19.9 | 0.9 | 5 |
94 |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 |
3.7 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 6 |
31 |
| Pierre Strong GB RB2 |
4 | 7 | 0.9 | 2 |
27 |
| Sione Vaki DET RB2 |
4.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 5 |
11 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Christian Watson GB WR2 |
13.2 | 7 | 1.2 | 6 |
110 |
| Matthew Golden GB WR1 |
9.3 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 6 |
80 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR1 |
6.1 | 10.9 | 0.9 | 5 |
65 |
| Jameson Williams DET WR2 |
11.1 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 5 |
64 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET WR3 |
9.7 | 3 | 0.9 | 5 |
31 |
| Savion Williams GB WR3 |
6.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1 |
15 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
GB
Game status
1 out · 4 questionable
- Out
Zaire FranklinLB
Shin
- Questionable
Bo MeltonWR
Back
- Questionable
Aaron BanksG
Knee / Toe
- Questionable
Jordon RileyDT
Achilles
- Questionable
Benjamin St-JusteCB
Hamstring
DET
Game status
2 questionable
- Questionable
Cade MaysC
Wrist
- Questionable
Brian BranchS
Achilles
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
GB
This season
DET
60
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
71
55
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
70
55
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
46
55
Overall
58
QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45
Last season
QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| GB |
Per game, this season |
DET |
| 0.67 | Interceptions thrown | 0.00 |
|---|
| 1.50 | Interceptions caught | 0.60 |
|---|
| 0.50 | Fumbles lost | 0.20 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Fumbles forced | 0.80 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Takeaways | 1.40 |
|---|
| 1.17 | Giveaways | 0.20 |
|---|
| +0.67 | Net turnover margin | +1.2 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| GB |
Offense |
DET |
| +0.166 | EPA per dropback | +0.253 |
|---|
| +0.1 | Completion % over expected | +1.5 |
|---|
| 1.6% | Interception rate | 0.6% |
|---|
| 5.4% | Sack rate taken | 5.8% |
|---|
| -0.178 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.033 |
|---|
| 7.1% | Explosive play rate | 6.5% |
|---|
| GB |
Defense |
DET |
| -0.009 | EPA allowed per play | +0.070 |
|---|
| 5.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.84 |
|---|
| 3.6% | Sack rate | 5.1% |
|---|
| 1.7% | Interception rate forced | 1.0% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is GB, right is DET.
| GB |
This season |
DET |
| 6 | Games | 5 |
|---|
| 280.7 | Pass yards/g | 297 |
|---|
| 59.8 | Rush yards/g | 114.2 |
|---|
| 11 | Passing TD | 12 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions thrown | 0 |
|---|
| 209.2 | Pass yards allowed/g | 321.4 |
|---|
| 114.3 | Rush yards allowed/g | 107 |
|---|
| 9 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| GB |
Last season |
DET |
| 231.6 | Pass yards/g | 268.6 |
|---|
| 118.7 | Rush yards/g | 120.1 |
|---|
| 30 | Passing TD | 35 |
|---|
| 7 | Interceptions thrown | 8 |
|---|
| 215.4 | Pass yards allowed/g | 236.9 |
|---|
| 116.3 | Rush yards allowed/g | 114.5 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
GB
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB60
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jordan Love | 6 | 135/226 |
59.7% | 1684 | 280.7 |
11 / 4 | 7.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 48 |
122 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 6 | 28 |
104 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Matthew Golden WR1 | 6 |
30/57 | 52.6% | 501 |
83.5 | 3 |
| Christian Watson WR2 | 6 |
29/48 | 60.4% | 538 |
89.7 | 6 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 6 |
25/37 | 67.6% | 249 |
41.5 | 1 |
DET
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB71
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jared Goff | 5 | 128/191 |
67% | 1485 | 297 |
12 / 0 | 7.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 105 |
504 | 4.8 | 7 |
| Sione Vaki | 5 | 15 |
51 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | 5 |
37/57 | 64.9% | 372 |
74.4 | 5 |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | 5 |
18/29 | 62.1% | 276 |
55.2 | 2 |
| Sam LaPorta TE | 5 |
27/37 | 73% | 316 |
63.2 | 3 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
GB
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB72
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jordan Love | 16 | 315/485 |
64.9% | 3704 | 231.5 |
27 / 6 | 7.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 253 |
984 | 3.9 | 13 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 18 | 126 |
499 | 4 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Romeo Doubs WR1 | 17 |
63/96 | 65.6% | 848 |
49.9 | 7 |
| Christian Watson WR2 | 11 |
38/62 | 61.3% | 647 |
58.8 | 7 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 8 |
32/44 | 72.7% | 489 |
61.1 | 6 |
DET
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB64
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jared Goff | 17 | 393/578 |
68% | 4564 | 268.5 |
34 / 8 | 7.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 243 |
1223 | 5 | 13 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 158 |
716 | 4.5 | 8 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | 17 |
117/172 | 68% | 1401 |
82.4 | 11 |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | 17 |
65/102 | 63.7% | 1117 |
65.7 | 7 |
| Sam LaPorta TE | 9 |
40/49 | 81.6% | 489 |
54.3 | 3 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 72%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, 58%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
GB
Leo’s chance
- Christian Watson
WR2
35%
- Matthew Golden
WR1
34%
- Pierre Strong
RB1
30%
DET
Leo’s chance
- Jahmyr Gibbs
RB1
72%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR1
58%
- Sam LaPorta
TE1
37%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.