Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

DET at MIA

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Lions at 67%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

DET This season MIA

68 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 36

66 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 45

47 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 31

57 Overall 38

QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55 Last season QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DET	Per game, this season	MIA
0.14	Interceptions thrown	0.71
0.71	Interceptions caught	0.57
0.43	Fumbles lost	0.57
0.57	Fumbles forced	0.57
1.29	Takeaways	1.14
0.57	Giveaways	1.29
+0.71	Net turnover margin	-0.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DET	Offense	MIA
+0.230	EPA per dropback	-0.042
+1.3	Completion % over expected	-2.8
0.8%	Interception rate	3.1%
6.1%	Sack rate taken	9.2%
-0.076	Rush EPA per carry	-0.015
6.2%	Explosive play rate	5.6%
DET	Defense	MIA
+0.058	EPA allowed per play	+0.109
5.78	Yards allowed per play	5.91
4.9%	Sack rate	2.8%
1.1%	Interception rate forced	0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DET, right is MIA.

DET	This season	MIA
7	Games	7
280.6	Pass yards/g	181.1
131.4	Rush yards/g	123.3
15	Passing TD	6
1	Interceptions thrown	5
298.7	Pass yards allowed/g	230.9
96.6	Rush yards allowed/g	113.1
5	Interceptions forced	4
DET	Last season	MIA
268.6	Pass yards/g	195.4
120.1	Rush yards/g	120.2
35	Passing TD	23
8	Interceptions thrown	18
236.9	Pass yards allowed/g	230.6
114.5	Rush yards allowed/g	132.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB68

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jared Goff	7	168/248	67.7%	1964	280.6	15 / 1	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	7	157	773	4.9	8
Sione Vaki	7	27	121	4.5	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1	7	53/76	69.7%	571	81.6	5
Jameson Williams WR2	7	27/44	61.4%	437	62.4	5
Sam LaPorta TE	7	31/44	70.5%	367	52.4	3

MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Malik Willis	7	108/183	59%	1268	181.1	6 / 5	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Ollie Gordon II	6	91	408	4.5	4
De'Von Achane	3	34	127	3.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Malik Washington WR1	7	31/45	68.9%	329	47	1
Chris Bell WR2	7	12/24	50%	148	21.1	0
Greg Dulcich TE	6	22/28	78.6%	256	42.7	0

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jared Goff	17	393/578	68%	4564	268.5	34 / 8	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	17	243	1223	5	13
David Montgomery	17	158	716	4.5	8

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1	17	117/172	68%	1401	82.4	11
Jameson Williams WR2	17	65/102	63.7%	1117	65.7	7
Sam LaPorta TE	9	40/49	81.6%	489	54.3	3

MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Tua Tagovailoa	14	260/384	67.7%	2660	190	20 / 15	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
De'Von Achane	16	238	1350	5.7	8
Ollie Gordon II	17	70	199	2.8	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jaylen Waddle WR1	16	64/100	64%	910	56.9	6
Malik Washington WR2	17	46/65	70.8%	317	18.6	3
Darren Waller TE	9	24/34	70.6%	283	31.4	6

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

DET 2026

1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB 10 8 rush · 2 rec
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
3. Jameson Williams WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec

MIA 2026

1. Ollie Gordon II RB 4 4 rush · 0 rec
2. Malik Willis QB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
3. Caleb Douglas WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.