Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
MIA
at
NYJ
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · Division game
MIA moneyline+185
NYJ moneyline-225
SpreadNYJ -4.5
Total39.5
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceNYJ 55%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.2points, both teams
Leo marginNYJ by 6expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Geno Smith NYJ QB1 |
7.3 | 29.6 | 1 | 6 |
205 |
| Malik Willis MIA QB1 |
6.7 | 27.6 | 0.9 | 5 |
166 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Breece Hall NYJ RB1 |
4.2 | 15.6 | 1 | 3 |
67 |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA RB1 |
4.4 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 4 |
50 |
| Braelon Allen NYJ RB2 |
4.3 | 11.2 | 1 | 6 |
50 |
| Jaylen Wright MIA RB2 |
3.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 4 |
20 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ WR3 |
22.4 | 4.3 | 1 | 2 |
98 |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 |
8.1 | 8.5 | 1 | 6 |
71 |
| Caleb Douglas MIA WR2 |
9.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 2 |
52 |
| Adonai Mitchell NYJ WR2 |
9.1 | 5.4 | 1 | 2 |
52 |
| Malik Washington MIA WR1 |
7.6 | 6 | 0.9 | 5 |
46 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA WR3 |
1.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 4 |
11 |
Get Leo’s NFL card by email
Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
MIA
Game status
1 out · 1 doubtful · 2 questionable
- Out
Reese TaylorCB
Quadricep
- Doubtful
Rob Beal Jr.DE
Hamstring
- Questionable
Willie Gay Jr.LB
Illness
- Questionable
Kyle LouisS
Knee
NYJ
Game status
3 out · 3 questionable
- Out
Max MitchellT
Concussion
- Out
Joseph OssaiDE
Ankle
- Out
Francisco MauigoaLB
Quadricep
- Questionable
Breece HallRB
Quadricep
- Questionable
Kene NwangwuRB
Knee
- Questionable
Dylan ParhamG
Knee
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
MIA
This season
NYJ
30
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
45
41
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
41
33
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
43
37
Overall
42
QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39
Last season
QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| MIA |
Per game, this season |
NYJ |
| 0.80 | Interceptions thrown | 0.17 |
|---|
| 0.60 | Interceptions caught | 0.17 |
|---|
| 0.80 | Fumbles lost | 0.50 |
|---|
| 0.60 | Fumbles forced | 1.67 |
|---|
| 1.20 | Takeaways | 1.83 |
|---|
| 1.60 | Giveaways | 0.67 |
|---|
| -0.4 | Net turnover margin | +1.17 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| MIA |
Offense |
NYJ |
| -0.107 | EPA per dropback | -0.028 |
|---|
| -3.3 | Completion % over expected | +0.9 |
|---|
| 3.4% | Interception rate | 1.4% |
|---|
| 8.7% | Sack rate taken | 10.1% |
|---|
| -0.010 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.130 |
|---|
| 6.0% | Explosive play rate | 4.3% |
|---|
| MIA |
Defense |
NYJ |
| +0.089 | EPA allowed per play | +0.024 |
|---|
| 5.8 | Yards allowed per play | 5.34 |
|---|
| 2.4% | Sack rate | 3.6% |
|---|
| 0.9% | Interception rate forced | 0.2% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIA, right is NYJ.
| MIA |
This season |
NYJ |
| 5 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 169.8 | Pass yards/g | 222.7 |
|---|
| 126.6 | Rush yards/g | 94.5 |
|---|
| 2 | Passing TD | 7 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions thrown | 1 |
|---|
| 226 | Pass yards allowed/g | 202 |
|---|
| 110.6 | Rush yards allowed/g | 123 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions forced | 1 |
|---|
| MIA |
Last season |
NYJ |
| 195.4 | Pass yards/g | 163.8 |
|---|
| 120.2 | Rush yards/g | 123.3 |
|---|
| 23 | Passing TD | 15 |
|---|
| 18 | Interceptions thrown | 13 |
|---|
| 230.6 | Pass yards allowed/g | 226.4 |
|---|
| 132.4 | Rush yards allowed/g | 139.5 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
MIA
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB30
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Malik Willis | 5 | 73/130 |
56.2% | 849 | 169.8 |
2 / 4 | 6.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | 4 | 47 |
236 | 5 | 3 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 34 |
127 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Malik Washington WR1 | 5 |
23/36 | 63.9% | 262 |
52.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. WR2 | 4 |
5/17 | 29.4% | 36 |
9 | 1 |
| Greg Dulcich TE | 4 |
13/17 | 76.5% | 127 |
31.8 | 0 |
NYJ
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB45
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Geno Smith | 6 | 122/177 |
68.9% | 1336 | 222.7 |
7 / 1 | 7.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Braelon Allen | 6 | 74 |
314 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 51 |
163 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | 6 |
35/48 | 72.9% | 418 |
69.7 | 3 |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | 2 |
9/15 | 60% | 123 |
61.5 | 0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq TE | 6 |
15/24 | 62.5% | 158 |
26.3 | 1 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
MIA
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB47
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14 | 260/384 |
67.7% | 2660 | 190 |
20 / 15 | 6.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| De'Von Achane | 16 | 238 |
1350 | 5.7 | 8 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 17 | 70 |
199 | 2.8 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | 16 |
64/100 | 64% | 910 |
56.9 | 6 |
| Malik Washington WR2 | 17 |
46/65 | 70.8% | 317 |
18.6 | 3 |
| Darren Waller TE | 9 |
24/34 | 70.6% | 283 |
31.4 | 6 |
NYJ
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB28
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Justin Fields | 9 | 128/204 |
62.7% | 1259 | 139.9 |
7 / 1 | 6.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 243 |
1065 | 4.4 | 4 |
| Isaiah Davis | 16 | 43 |
236 | 5.5 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | 7 |
36/59 | 61% | 395 |
56.4 | 4 |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | 8 |
24/58 | 41.4% | 301 |
37.6 | 2 |
| Mason Taylor TE | 13 |
44/65 | 67.7% | 369 |
28.4 | 1 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Breece Hall (NYJ, 42%) and Garrett Wilson (NYJ, 39%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
MIA
Leo’s chance
- Ollie Gordon II
RB1
26%
- Malik Washington
WR1
23%
- Malik Willis
QB1
18%
NYJ
Leo’s chance
- Breece Hall
RB1
42%
- Garrett Wilson
WR1
39%
- Braelon Allen
RB2
23%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.