Week 8 · Sunday 16:25

NENE at MIAMIA

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · Division game

NE moneyline-345
MIA moneyline+275
SpreadNE -7
Total41.5

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the New England Patriots a 66% chance to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Hard Rock Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 46.2 total points (posted total 41.5) and expects the Patriots by 9 (posted spread Patriots −7). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Rhamondre Stevenson (38%) and A.J. Brown (34%). Starting quarterbacks: Drake Maye for the Patriots and Malik Willis for the Dolphins.

Final: Patriots 24, Dolphins 19. Leo gave the New England Patriots a 66% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 43 points against Leo's 46.2 and the posted 41.5. Touchdowns: DeMario Douglas, Drake Maye, Kyle Williams, Malik Washington and Kevin Coleman Jr..

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 1:58 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickNE 66%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -345 at the read
Leo total46.2points, both teams
Leo marginNE by 9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drake Maye NE QB1 8.530.217 251
Malik Willis MIA QB1 726.71.16 195

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB1 4.411.70.95 46
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB1 410.817 45
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB2 4.8916 45
Jaylen Wright MIA RB2 3.74.50.95 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Caleb Douglas MIA WR2 14.44.71.13 76
Malik Washington MIA WR1 8.85.71.16 57
A.J. Brown NE WR1 6.57.613 53
DeMario Douglas NE WR2 8.74.217 41
Efton Chism III NE WR3 7.41.816 17
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA WR3 1.53.71.15 9

Why Leo has the Patriots at 66%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 1:58 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NE Game status

4 questionable

  • Questionable TreVeyon HendersonRB Illness
  • Questionable A.J. BrownWR Ankle / Knee
  • Questionable Christian EllissLB Chest
  • Questionable Carlton Davis IIICB Neck
MIA Game status

1 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Kadyn ProctorT Concussion
  • Questionable Julius BrentsCB Neck / Concussion
  • Questionable Reese TaylorCB Quadricep

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

NE This season MIA
65 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
58 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 44
52 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 32
55 Overall 38
QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60 Last season QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NE Per game, this season MIA
1.14Interceptions thrown0.67
0.57Interceptions caught0.67
0.86Fumbles lost0.67
0.71Fumbles forced0.50
1.29Takeaways1.17
2.00Giveaways1.33
-0.71Net turnover margin-0.17

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NE Offense MIA
+0.184EPA per dropback-0.059
+7.2Completion % over expected-3.5
3.0%Interception rate3.1%
7.2%Sack rate taken8.7%
-0.052Rush EPA per carry+0.008
6.8%Explosive play rate5.9%
NE Defense MIA
-0.008EPA allowed per play+0.105
5.47Yards allowed per play5.94
4.0%Sack rate2.5%
1.1%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NE, right is MIA.

NE This season MIA
7Games6
261.4Pass yards/g176.2
122Rush yards/g131.5
13Passing TD4
8Interceptions thrown4
239Pass yards allowed/g236.2
95.3Rush yards allowed/g110.2
4Interceptions forced4
NE Last season MIA
251.8Pass yards/g195.4
126.8Rush yards/g120.2
37Passing TD23
12Interceptions thrown18
200.9Pass yards allowed/g230.6
99.2Rush yards allowed/g132.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye7141/214 65.9%1784254.9 13 / 88.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson777 2853.72
TreVeyon Henderson652 2033.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeMario Douglas WR17 23/3467.6%256 36.63
Romeo Doubs WR26 14/2458.3%261 43.53
Hunter Henry TE7 26/3183.9%296 42.32
MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Malik Willis687/151 57.6%1057176.2 4 / 47

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ollie Gordon II572 3394.74
De'Von Achane334 1273.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Washington WR16 26/3966.7%289 48.20
Chris Bell WR26 8/1942.1%117 19.50
Greg Dulcich TE5 18/2281.8%213 42.60

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98
MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tua Tagovailoa14260/384 67.7%2660190 20 / 156.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane16238 13505.78
Ollie Gordon II1770 1992.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR116 64/10064%910 56.96
Malik Washington WR217 46/6570.8%317 18.63
Darren Waller TE9 24/3470.6%283 31.46

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, 38%) and A.J. Brown (NE, 34%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NE Leo’s chance
  1. Rhamondre Stevenson RB1 38% no TD
  2. A.J. Brown WR1 34% no TD
  3. Hunter Henry TE1 24% no TD
MIA Leo’s chance
  1. Ollie Gordon II RB1 32% no TD
  2. Malik Washington WR1 24% scored
  3. Malik Willis QB1 21% no TD

Final result

NE 24 – 19 MIA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NE
Drake Maye QB 16/20199 yds2 TD0 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson RB 19 car82 yds0 TD3 rec, 8 yds
Corey Kiner RB 7 car38 yds0 TD
Lan Larison RB 2 car6 yds0 TD
DeMario Douglas WR 3/376 yds1 TD
Kyle Williams WR 1/143 yds1 TD
Efton Chism III WR 5/537 yds0 TD
MIA
Malik Willis QB 21/32211 yds2 TD1 INT
Ollie Gordon II RB 19 car69 yds0 TD
Jaylen Wright RB 2 car5 yds0 TD
Chris Bell WR 1 car-2 yds0 TD4 rec, 31 yds
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR 3/346 yds1 TD
Greg Dulcich TE 4/643 yds0 TD
Caleb Douglas WR 4/643 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNE 66%—NE wonRIGHT
Total points46.241.543no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNE by 9NE −7NE by 5NE −7 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake Maye NE 236.5251 OVER 199 52 Fewer attempts (20 vs 30.2 expected) WRONG
Malik Willis MIA 173.5195 OVER 211 16 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 60.545 UNDER 82 37 More carries (19 vs 10.8 expected) WRONG
Ollie Gordon II MIA 61.546 UNDER 69 23 More carries (19 vs 11.7 expected) WRONG
Jaylen Wright MIA 14.516 OVER 5 11 Fewer carries (2 vs 4.5 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA —9 no side 46 37 More efficient (15.3 vs 1.5 yds/tgt)
DeMario Douglas NE 40.541 no side 76 35 More efficient (25.3 vs 8.7 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Caleb Douglas MIA 37.576 OVER 43 33 Less efficient (7.2 vs 14.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Efton Chism III NE 27.517 UNDER 37 20 More targets (5 vs 1.8 expected) WRONG
Malik Washington MIA 41.557 OVER 40 17 Less efficient (6.7 vs 8.8 yds/tgt) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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