Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

BALBAL at BUFBUF

Highmark Stadium · outdoors

BAL moneyline+136
BUF moneyline-162
SpreadBUF -3
Total54.5

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Buffalo Bills a 63% chance to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Highmark Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 55.7 total points (posted total 54.5) and expects the Bills by 5.7 (posted spread Bills −3). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: James Cook (66%) and Derrick Henry (63%). Starting quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson for the Ravens and Josh Allen for the Bills.

Final: Bills 36, Ravens 10. Leo gave the Buffalo Bills a 63% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 46 points against Leo's 55.7 and the posted 54.5. Touchdowns: Derrick Henry, DJ Moore, Josh Allen, James Cook and Dalton Kincaid.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickBUF 63%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -162 at the read
Leo total55.7points, both teams
Leo marginBUF by 5.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Lamar Jackson BAL QB1 9.424.51.24 258
Josh Allen BUF QB1 8.628.616 241

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Derrick Henry BAL RB1 4.720.60.97 92
James Cook BUF RB1 5.119.50.96 92
Justice Hill BAL RB2 4.92.90.97 14
Ray Davis BUF RB2 4.61.40.95 7

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Zay Flowers BAL WR1 9.98.21.26 97
Khalil Shakir BUF WR1 12.55.516 73
Keon Coleman BUF WR3 104.316 47
Rashod Bateman BAL WR3 7.43.41.27 32
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL WR2 5.63.91.23 29
DJ Moore BUF WR2 5.54.614 29

Why Leo has the Bills at 63%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

BAL Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Olaivavega IoaneG Knee
  • Out Jaylinn HawkinsS Knee
  • Questionable Adam RandallRB Neck
  • Questionable T.J. TampaCB Knee
BUF Game status

1 out · 6 questionable

  • Out Tyrell ShaversWR Knee
  • Questionable DJ MooreWR Shoulder
  • Questionable Dalton KincaidTE Chest
  • Questionable Spencer BrownT Back
  • Questionable Greg GainesDT Calf
  • Questionable TJ ParkerLB Knee
  • Questionable Dee AlfordCB Ankle

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

BAL This season BUF
61 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 68
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 74
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 40
53 Overall 57
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45 Last season QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BAL Per game, this season BUF
0.29Interceptions thrown0.67
0.43Interceptions caught0.50
0.43Fumbles lost0.83
0.86Fumbles forced0.67
1.29Takeaways1.17
0.71Giveaways1.50
+0.57Net turnover margin-0.33

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BAL Offense BUF
+0.143EPA per dropback+0.247
+4.1Completion % over expected+4.8
1.6%Interception rate2.2%
8.7%Sack rate taken6.8%
-0.001Rush EPA per carry+0.100
6.4%Explosive play rate8.2%
BAL Defense BUF
+0.034EPA allowed per play+0.074
5.59Yards allowed per play5.71
3.4%Sack rate3.0%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BAL, right is BUF.

BAL This season BUF
7Games6
242Pass yards/g250.7
141.7Rush yards/g148.8
10Passing TD9
2Interceptions thrown4
235.1Pass yards allowed/g298.7
96.6Rush yards allowed/g101
3Interceptions forced3
BAL Last season BUF
192.8Pass yards/g238.8
156.6Rush yards/g156.6
23Passing TD33
11Interceptions thrown12
259Pass yards allowed/g177.9
106.6Rush yards allowed/g133.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Huntley474/106 69.8%727181.8 4 / 16.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry7147 5793.97
Justice Hill721 1406.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR16 40/5375.5%608 101.33
Rashod Bateman WR27 18/2669.2%266 381
Mark Andrews TE7 26/3770.3%204 29.11
BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen6114/171 66.7%1504250.7 9 / 48.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook6117 6275.46
Ray Davis55 122.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR16 22/3268.8%290 48.31
Keon Coleman WR26 19/2479.2%283 47.23
Dalton Kincaid TE6 23/2979.3%315 52.51

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson13192/302 63.6%2549196.1 21 / 78.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry17307 15955.216
Keaton Mitchell1359 3415.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR117 86/11872.9%1211 71.25
DeAndre Hopkins WR217 22/3956.4%330 19.42
Mark Andrews TE17 48/7068.6%422 24.85
BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: James Cook (BUF, 66%) and Derrick Henry (BAL, 63%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BAL Leo’s chance
  1. Derrick Henry RB1 63% scored
  2. Zay Flowers WR1 39% no TD
  3. Mark Andrews TE1 22% no TD
BUF Leo’s chance
  1. James Cook RB1 66% scored
  2. Josh Allen QB1 53% scored
  3. Khalil Shakir WR1 36% no TD

Final result

BAL 10 – 36 BUF

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BAL
Joe Fagnano QB 10/2191 yds0 TD1 INT
Derrick Henry RB 11 car53 yds1 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Justice Hill RB 3 car15 yds0 TD4 rec, 20 yds
Rasheen Ali RB 2 car5 yds0 TD
Rashod Bateman WR 1/322 yds0 TD
Justice Hill RB 4/820 yds0 TD
Josh Cuevas TE 1/215 yds0 TD
BUF
Josh Allen QB 21/34289 yds2 TD1 INT
James Cook RB 21 car80 yds1 TD2 rec, 21 yds
Ray Davis RB 6 car30 yds0 TD
Ty Johnson RB 4 car4 yds0 TD3 rec, 19 yds
Dalton Kincaid TE 4/686 yds1 TD
DJ Moore WR 4/782 yds1 TD
Khalil Shakir WR 5/664 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBUF 63%—BUF wonRIGHT
Total points55.754.546no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginBUF by 5.7BUF −3BUF by 26BUF −3 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Lamar Jackson BAL 240.5258 OVER 0 258 Fewer attempts (1 vs 24.5 expected) WRONG
Josh Allen BUF 249.5241 no side 289 48 More attempts (34 vs 28.6 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Derrick Henry BAL 77.592 OVER 53 39 Fewer carries (11 vs 20.6 expected) WRONG
Ray Davis BUF 4.57 OVER 30 23 More carries (6 vs 1.4 expected) RIGHT
James Cook BUF 83.592 OVER 80 12 Less efficient (3.8 vs 5.1 yds/carry) WRONG
Justice Hill BAL 9.514 OVER 15 1 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Zay Flowers BAL 89.597 OVER 0 97 Less efficient (0 vs 9.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
DJ Moore BUF 53.529 UNDER 82 53 More efficient (11.7 vs 5.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Keon Coleman BUF 29.547 OVER 4 43 Less efficient (1.3 vs 10 yds/tgt) WRONG
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL 30.529 no side 13 16 Fewer targets (1 vs 3.9 expected) NO LEAN
Rashod Bateman BAL 25.532 OVER 22 10 Fewer targets (3 vs 3.4 expected) WRONG
Khalil Shakir BUF 41.573 OVER 64 9 Less efficient (10.7 vs 12.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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