Week 6 · Sunday 16:25

BUFBUF at LVLV

Allegiant Stadium · dome

BUF moneyline-238
LV moneyline+195
SpreadBUF -5.5
Total53.5

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 4:24 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceBUF 71%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total53.6points, both teams
Leo marginBUF by 5.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 7.233.41.15 267
Josh Allen BUF QB1 8.727.91.15 259

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
James Cook BUF RB1 5.219.11.25 115
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 3.816.915 65
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 4.54.715 23
Ray Davis BUF RB2 4.61.51.24 9

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Khalil Shakir BUF WR1 10.95.51.15 68
Tre Tucker LV WR1 8.55.61.15 58
Keon Coleman BUF WR3 10.54.11.15 50
DJ Moore BUF WR2 5.54.61.14 31
Jalen Nailor LV WR2 5.13.81.13 26
Cody White LV WR3 7.11.91.15 19
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

BUF Game status

5 questionable

  • Questionable DJ MooreWR Shoulder
  • Questionable Josh PalmerWR Shoulder
  • Questionable Ed OliverDE Knee
  • Questionable T.J. SandersDE Shoulder
  • Questionable Dee AlfordCB Ankle
LV Game status

3 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR Hamstring
  • Out Carter RunyonTE Foot
  • Out Tonka HemingwayDT Concussion
  • Questionable Trey Zuhn IIIC Knee

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

BUF This season LV
65 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
73 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 38
42 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 48
57 Overall 43
QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52 Last season QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BUF Per game, this season LV
0.80Interceptions thrown0.80
0.40Interceptions caught0.80
1.00Fumbles lost0.20
0.80Fumbles forced2.20
1.20Takeaways3.00
1.80Giveaways1.00
-0.6Net turnover margin+2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BUF Offense LV
+0.240EPA per dropback+0.023
+4.7Completion % over expected+0.6
2.5%Interception rate2.9%
6.9%Sack rate taken7.3%
+0.111Rush EPA per carry-0.260
8.4%Explosive play rate5.0%
BUF Defense LV
+0.071EPA allowed per play+0.020
5.66Yards allowed per play5.89
3.3%Sack rate3.8%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BUF, right is LV.

BUF This season LV
5Games5
249.8Pass yards/g263.4
158Rush yards/g82
7Passing TD12
4Interceptions thrown4
295.8Pass yards allowed/g253.2
108.2Rush yards allowed/g140.6
2Interceptions forced4
BUF Last season LV
238.8Pass yards/g195
156.6Rush yards/g77.5
33Passing TD20
12Interceptions thrown19
177.9Pass yards allowed/g214.4
133.6Rush yards allowed/g116.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen591/138 65.9%1249249.8 7 / 49.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook595 5325.65
Ray Davis44 820

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR15 18/2669.2%256 51.20
DJ Moore WR24 12/2060%178 44.51
Dalton Kincaid TE5 16/2176.2%277 55.41
LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins5112/172 65.1%1269253.8 12 / 47.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty588 2913.30
Mike Washington Jr.525 12551

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR15 19/2867.9%274 54.81
Cody White WR25 7/1450%108 21.63
Brock Bowers TE3 24/3470.6%312 1043

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77
LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: James Cook (BUF, 63%) and Josh Allen (BUF, 55%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BUF Leo’s chance
  1. James Cook RB1 63% scored
  2. Josh Allen QB1 55% no TD
  3. Khalil Shakir WR1 32% scored
LV Leo’s chance
  1. Ashton Jeanty RB1 52% scored
  2. Brock Bowers TE1 46% no TD
  3. Tre Tucker WR1 31% scored 2

Final result

BUF 33 – 30 LV

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BUF
Josh Allen QB 23/33255 yds2 TD0 INT
James Cook RB 22 car95 yds1 TD3 rec, 58 yds
Ty Johnson RB 1 car3 yds0 TD2 rec, 24 yds
Ray Davis RB 1 car4 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Keon Coleman WR 4/659 yds1 TD
James Cook RB 3/358 yds0 TD
Dalton Kincaid TE 7/838 yds0 TD
LV
Kirk Cousins QB 23/41313 yds2 TD1 INT
Ashton Jeanty RB 10 car22 yds1 TD4 rec, 36 yds
Mike Washington Jr. RB 9 car43 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Dylan Laube RB 1 car0 yds0 TD1 rec, -1 yds
Tre Tucker WR 5/797 yds2 TD
Michael Mayer TE 7/995 yds0 TD
Brock Bowers TE 4/970 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBUF 71%—BUF wonNO PICK
Total points53.653.563no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginBUF by 5.6BUF −5.5BUF by 3no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kirk Cousins LV 252.5267 OVER 313 46 More attempts (41 vs 33.4 expected) RIGHT
Josh Allen BUF 248.5259 no side 255 4 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ashton Jeanty LV 55.565 OVER 22 43 Fewer carries (10 vs 16.9 expected) WRONG
James Cook BUF 94.5115 OVER 95 20 Less efficient (4.3 vs 5.2 yds/carry) RIGHT
Mike Washington Jr. LV 14.523 OVER 43 20 More carries (9 vs 4.7 expected) RIGHT
Ray Davis BUF 9.59 UNDER 4 5 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tre Tucker LV 39.558 OVER 97 39 More efficient (13.9 vs 8.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Khalil Shakir BUF 46.568 OVER 34 34 Less efficient (5.7 vs 10.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Cody White LV 13.519 OVER 0 19 Less efficient (0 vs 7.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jalen Nailor LV 20.526 OVER 9 17 Less efficient (2.3 vs 5.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Keon Coleman BUF 39.550 OVER 59 9 More targets (6 vs 4.1 expected) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.