Week 9 · Sunday 16:25

GBGB at NENE

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

GB moneyline+140
NE moneyline-166
SpreadNE -3
Total46.5

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the New England Patriots a 63% chance to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, November 8, at Gillette Stadium, in Week 9. That is above 60% at a price better than -230, so the moneyline is a call. Leo projects 46.9 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Patriots by 5.3 (posted spread Patriots −3). Leo's calls: moneyline NE -166, spread NE -3 and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: Jordan Love for the Packers and Drake Maye for the Patriots.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylineNE -166Leo gives NE 63%
SpreadNE -3Leo NE by 5.3
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceNE 63%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total46.9points, both teams
Leo marginNE by 5.3expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Patriots at 63%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

GB This season NE
62 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 67
55 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 60
58 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 54
57 Overall 57
QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45 Last season QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

GB Per game, this season NE
0.75Interceptions thrown1.00
1.25Interceptions caught0.63
0.50Fumbles lost0.88
0.63Fumbles forced0.63
1.88Takeaways1.25
1.25Giveaways1.88
+0.63Net turnover margin-0.62

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

GB Offense NE
+0.175EPA per dropback+0.195
+1.2Completion % over expected+7.6
1.7%Interception rate2.9%
4.6%Sack rate taken7.5%
-0.176Rush EPA per carry-0.047
7.0%Explosive play rate6.9%
GB Defense NE
-0.028EPA allowed per play-0.013
5.06Yards allowed per play5.41
3.8%Sack rate4.4%
1.5%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is GB, right is NE.

GB This season NE
8Games8
280.8Pass yards/g253.6
60.6Rush yards/g123.1
16Passing TD15
6Interceptions thrown8
220.9Pass yards allowed/g235.5
110.9Rush yards allowed/g92.6
10Interceptions forced5
GB Last season NE
231.6Pass yards/g251.8
118.7Rush yards/g126.8
30Passing TD37
7Interceptions thrown12
215.4Pass yards allowed/g200.9
116.3Rush yards allowed/g99.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love8192/312 61.5%2246280.8 16 / 67.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd857 1492.62
Josh Jacobs232 752.31

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Matthew Golden WR18 43/8252.4%619 77.44
Christian Watson WR28 42/6663.6%708 88.56
Tucker Kraft TE8 35/4971.4%350 43.83
NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye8157/234 67.1%1983247.9 15 / 88.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson896 3673.82
TreVeyon Henderson652 2033.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeMario Douglas WR18 26/3770.3%332 41.54
Romeo Doubs WR26 14/2458.3%261 43.53
Hunter Henry TE8 29/3485.3%326 40.82

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16
NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

GB 2026
  1. Christian Watson WR 6 0 rush · 6 rec
  2. Matthew Golden WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
  3. Tucker Kraft TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
NE 2026
  1. DeMario Douglas WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
  2. Drake Maye QB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  3. Rhamondre Stevenson RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Green Bay Packers games

More New England Patriots games