Week 9 · Monday 20:15

BUF at MIN

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Bills at 69%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Buffalo Bills at 69%, while the margin model has Vikings by 0.4. Read it as a closer game than 69% suggests, which is why Leo makes no spread call.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

BUF This season MIN

67 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 37

73 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 37

46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 76

60 Overall 57

QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52 Last season QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BUF	Per game, this season	MIN
0.71	Interceptions thrown	0.43
0.57	Interceptions caught	1.14
0.86	Fumbles lost	0.29
0.71	Fumbles forced	0.71
1.29	Takeaways	1.86
1.57	Giveaways	0.71
-0.29	Net turnover margin	+1.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BUF	Offense	MIN
+0.240	EPA per dropback	-0.081
+4.1	Completion % over expected	-1.0
2.3%	Interception rate	2.6%
6.4%	Sack rate taken	10.3%
+0.080	Rush EPA per carry	-0.120
7.8%	Explosive play rate	5.1%
BUF	Defense	MIN
+0.037	EPA allowed per play	-0.141
5.56	Yards allowed per play	5.06
3.3%	Sack rate	5.6%
1.1%	Interception rate forced	1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BUF, right is MIN.

BUF	This season	MIN
7	Games	7
256.1	Pass yards/g	185.4
148.4	Rush yards/g	113.9
11	Passing TD	8
5	Interceptions thrown	3
269	Pass yards allowed/g	180.1
97.4	Rush yards allowed/g	116.7
4	Interceptions forced	8
BUF	Last season	MIN
238.8	Pass yards/g	188.7
156.6	Rush yards/g	108.3
33	Passing TD	18
12	Interceptions thrown	21
177.9	Pass yards allowed/g	177.7
133.6	Rush yards allowed/g	124.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Josh Allen	7	135/205	65.9%	1793	256.1	11 / 5	8.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
James Cook	7	138	707	5.1	7
Ray Davis	6	11	42	3.8	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Khalil Shakir WR1	7	27/38	71.1%	354	50.6	1
DJ Moore WR2	5	16/27	59.3%	260	52	2
Dalton Kincaid TE	7	27/35	77.1%	401	57.3	2

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB37

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Kyler Murray	6	100/154	64.9%	1022	170.3	5 / 3	6.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Aaron Jones	7	110	458	4.2	2
Jordan Mason	3	38	147	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Justin Jefferson WR1	6	28/40	70%	335	55.8	4
Jordan Addison WR2	6	16/33	48.5%	249	41.5	1
T.J. Hockenson TE	7	31/37	83.8%	295	42.1	3

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Josh Allen	18	372/534	69.7%	4224	234.7	29 / 12	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
James Cook	19	348	1784	5.1	12
Ray Davis	19	58	275	4.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Khalil Shakir WR1	18	91/116	78.4%	876	48.7	4
Keon Coleman WR2	14	40/63	63.5%	450	32.1	5
Dalton Kincaid TE	14	48/60	80%	682	48.7	7

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
J.J. McCarthy	10	140/243	57.6%	1632	163.2	11 / 12	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jordan Mason	16	159	758	4.8	6
Aaron Jones	12	132	548	4.2	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Justin Jefferson WR1	17	84/141	59.6%	1048	61.6	2
Jordan Addison WR2	14	42/79	53.2%	610	43.6	3
T.J. Hockenson TE	15	51/66	77.3%	438	29.2	3

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

BUF 2026

1. Josh Allen QB 9 9 rush · 0 rec
2. James Cook RB 7 7 rush · 0 rec
3. Keon Coleman WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

MIN 2026

1. Justin Jefferson WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. T.J. Hockenson TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Aaron Jones RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.