Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

MINMIN at NONO

Caesars Superdome · dome

MIN moneyline-142
NO moneyline+120
SpreadMIN -2.5
Total41.5

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNO 53%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.8points, both teams
Leo marginMIN by 7.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Tyler Shough NO QB1 6.940.80.94 244
Kyler Murray MIN QB1 627.113 155

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Jones MIN RB1 4.316.21.14 81
Alvin Kamara NO RB1 3.89.30.93 35
Kendre Miller NO RB2 4.26.60.93 27
Demond Claiborne MIN RB2 4.221.13 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 911.10.94 93
Justin Jefferson MIN WR1 10.77.313 81
Jordan Addison MIN WR2 7.25.514 43
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 7.16.10.94 42
Bryce Lance NO WR3 3.92.90.94 14
Tai Felton MIN WR3 4.50.712 7
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

MIN Game status

2 out · 5 questionable

  • Out Christian DarrisawT Concussion
  • Out Charles DemmingsCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Jordan AddisonWR Hamstring
  • Questionable Justin JeffersonWR Ankle
  • Questionable Ben YurosekTE Ankle
  • Questionable Brian O'NeillT Knee
  • Questionable Michael JurgensC Elbow
NO Game status

3 out · 6 questionable

  • Out Jeremiah WrightG Concussion
  • Out Anfernee JenningsLB Knee
  • Out Kaden EllissLB Calf
  • Questionable Alvin KamaraRB Back
  • Questionable Barion BrownWR Thigh
  • Questionable Christen MillerDT Illness
  • Questionable Jaylan FordLB Ankle
  • Questionable Lorenzo Styles Jr.CB Calf
  • Questionable Julian BlackmonS Shoulder

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

MIN This season NO
31 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 49
34 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41
74 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 44
54 Overall 43
QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIN Per game, this season NO
0.50Interceptions thrown0.75
1.00Interceptions caught0.25
0.00Fumbles lost1.25
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
2.00Takeaways1.25
0.50Giveaways2.00
+1.5Net turnover margin-0.75

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIN Offense NO
-0.141EPA per dropback-0.001
-1.9Completion % over expected+2.4
3.1%Interception rate1.8%
10.8%Sack rate taken7.0%
-0.089Rush EPA per carry-0.090
4.7%Explosive play rate4.5%
MIN Defense NO
-0.136EPA allowed per play+0.045
5.15Yards allowed per play5.59
5.8%Sack rate3.7%
1.2%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIN, right is NO.

MIN This season NO
4Games4
177.3Pass yards/g300.8
106.8Rush yards/g88.5
4Passing TD9
2Interceptions thrown3
220.3Pass yards allowed/g228
94.5Rush yards allowed/g147.8
4Interceptions forced1
MIN Last season NO
188.7Pass yards/g236.9
108.3Rush yards/g94.3
18Passing TD19
21Interceptions thrown12
177.7Pass yards allowed/g196.2
124.1Rush yards allowed/g120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kyler Murray345/71 63.4%433144.3 1 / 26.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Aaron Jones472 2974.11
Jordan Mason115 593.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jordan Addison WR14 11/2250%163 40.81
Justin Jefferson WR23 13/1776.5%179 59.72
T.J. Hockenson TE4 22/2684.6%195 48.81
NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough4121/180 67.2%1203300.8 9 / 36.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne330 1284.30
Alvin Kamara325 7432

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR14 35/4872.9%491 122.81
Devaughn Vele WR24 21/3167.7%226 56.52
Juwan Johnson TE4 21/2777.8%232 583

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
J.J. McCarthy10140/243 57.6%1632163.2 11 / 126.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason16159 7584.86
Aaron Jones12132 5484.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR117 84/14159.6%1048 61.62
Jordan Addison WR214 42/7953.2%610 43.63
T.J. Hockenson TE15 51/6677.3%438 29.23
NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Justin Jefferson (MIN, 32%) and Alvin Kamara (NO, 31%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
MIN Leo’s chance
  1. Justin Jefferson WR1 32% scored
  2. Aaron Jones RB1 24% scored
  3. Demond Claiborne RB2 22% no TD
NO Leo’s chance
  1. Alvin Kamara RB1 31% no TD
  2. Devaughn Vele WR2 29% no TD
  3. Chris Olave WR1 28% no TD

Final result

MIN 23 – 13 NO

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

MIN
Kyler Murray QB 24/30229 yds1 TD0 INT
Aaron Jones RB 25 car113 yds1 TD3 rec, 4 yds
Justin Jefferson WR 1 car-11 yds0 TD6 rec, 79 yds
Justin Jefferson WR 6/779 yds1 TD
Gavin Bartholomew TE 5/633 yds0 TD
Jeshaun Jones WR 1/132 yds0 TD
NO
Tyler Shough QB 16/2596 yds0 TD2 INT
Kendre Miller RB 10 car30 yds1 TD
CJ Donaldson RB 4 car13 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Alvin Kamara RB 3 car12 yds0 TD2 rec, -6 yds
Chris Olave WR 4/646 yds0 TD
Devaughn Vele WR 4/626 yds0 TD
Juwan Johnson TE 4/516 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNO 53%—MIN wonNO PICK
Total points44.841.536OVER · WRONG
MarginMIN by 7.2MIN −2.5MIN by 10MIN −2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Shough NO 237.5244 no side 96 148 Fewer attempts (25 vs 40.8 expected) NO LEAN
Kyler Murray MIN 212.5155 UNDER 229 74 More efficient (7.6 vs 6 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Aaron Jones MIN 71.581 OVER 113 32 More carries (25 vs 16.2 expected) RIGHT
Alvin Kamara NO 32.535 OVER 12 23 Fewer carries (3 vs 9.3 expected) WRONG
Demond Claiborne MIN —11 no side 0 11
Kendre Miller NO 23.527 OVER 30 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Olave NO 81.593 OVER 46 47 Fewer targets (6 vs 11.1 expected) WRONG
Tai Felton MIN 10.57 UNDER 27 20 More efficient (9 vs 4.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Devaughn Vele NO 40.542 no side 26 16 Less efficient (4.3 vs 7.1 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Bryce Lance NO —14 no side 0 14 Less efficient (0 vs 3.9 yds/tgt)
Justin Jefferson MIN —81 no side 79 2 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.