Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
IND
at
MIN
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
IND moneyline+260
MIN moneyline-325
SpreadMIN -6.5
Total41.5
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceMIN 56%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.6points, both teams
Leo marginMIN by 8.6expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Daniel Jones IND QB1 |
6.4 | 35.1 | 0.9 | 6 |
184 |
| Kyler Murray MIN QB1 |
6.3 | 27.6 | 0.9 | 4 |
156 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 |
4.6 | 20 | 0.9 | 6 |
80 |
| Aaron Jones MIN RB1 |
4.3 | 17.4 | 1 | 5 |
77 |
| Jordan Mason MIN RB2 |
4.5 | 12.3 | 1 | 1 |
57 |
| Seth McGowan IND RB2 |
4.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 6 |
14 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Keenan Allen IND WR1 |
6.1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 5 |
42 |
| Jordan Addison MIN WR1 |
7.2 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 4 |
41 |
| Josh Downs IND WR2 |
6.1 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 6 |
37 |
| Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 |
6.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 6 |
19 |
| Tai Felton MIN WR2 |
6.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3 |
10 |
| Myles Price MIN WR3 |
1.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 |
5 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
IND
Game status
4 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Anthony GouldWR
Concussion
- Out
Tyler WarrenTE
Groin
- Out
CJ AllenLB
Ankle
- Out
Sauce GardnerCB
Calf
- Questionable
Bryce BoettcherLB
Groin
- Questionable
Justin WalleyCB
Knee
MIN
Game status
1 questionable
- Questionable
Jordan MasonRB
Thumb
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
IND
This season
MIN
39
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
36
49
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
36
41
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
77
45
Overall
57
QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49
Last season
QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| IND |
Per game, this season |
MIN |
| 1.00 | Interceptions thrown | 0.40 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Interceptions caught | 1.20 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Fumbles lost | 0.40 |
|---|
| 0.50 | Fumbles forced | 1.00 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Takeaways | 2.20 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Giveaways | 0.80 |
|---|
| -1 | Net turnover margin | +1.4 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| IND |
Offense |
MIN |
| -0.040 | EPA per dropback | -0.093 |
|---|
| -1.9 | Completion % over expected | -0.3 |
|---|
| 2.7% | Interception rate | 2.7% |
|---|
| 5.9% | Sack rate taken | 10.3% |
|---|
| +0.064 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.103 |
|---|
| 5.3% | Explosive play rate | 4.7% |
|---|
| IND |
Defense |
MIN |
| +0.036 | EPA allowed per play | -0.155 |
|---|
| 5.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.01 |
|---|
| 3.1% | Sack rate | 5.5% |
|---|
| 0.8% | Interception rate forced | 1.5% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is IND, right is MIN.
| IND |
This season |
MIN |
| 6 | Games | 5 |
|---|
| 215 | Pass yards/g | 187.6 |
|---|
| 111.5 | Rush yards/g | 116 |
|---|
| 4 | Passing TD | 5 |
|---|
| 6 | Interceptions thrown | 2 |
|---|
| 240.3 | Pass yards allowed/g | 195.4 |
|---|
| 122.5 | Rush yards allowed/g | 86.6 |
|---|
| 2 | Interceptions forced | 6 |
|---|
| IND |
Last season |
MIN |
| 240.3 | Pass yards/g | 188.7 |
|---|
| 118.1 | Rush yards/g | 108.3 |
|---|
| 25 | Passing TD | 18 |
|---|
| 14 | Interceptions thrown | 21 |
|---|
| 262.5 | Pass yards allowed/g | 177.7 |
|---|
| 101.9 | Rush yards allowed/g | 124.1 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
IND
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB39
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 130/218 |
59.6% | 1290 | 215 |
4 / 6 | 5.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 122 |
492 | 4 | 7 |
| Seth McGowan | 6 | 21 |
88 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Josh Downs WR1 | 6 |
24/42 | 57.1% | 289 |
48.2 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen WR2 | 5 |
26/40 | 65% | 227 |
45.4 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren TE | 5 |
30/36 | 83.3% | 213 |
42.6 | 2 |
MIN
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB36
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 69/101 |
68.3% | 662 | 165.5 |
2 / 2 | 6.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 97 |
410 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 15 |
59 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | 4 |
19/24 | 79.2% | 258 |
64.5 | 3 |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | 4 |
11/22 | 50% | 163 |
40.8 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson TE | 5 |
23/27 | 85.2% | 202 |
40.4 | 1 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
IND
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB54
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Daniel Jones | 13 | 261/384 |
68% | 3101 | 238.5 |
19 / 8 | 8.1 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 323 |
1585 | 4.9 | 18 |
| DJ Giddens | 5 | 26 |
96 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Michael Pittman WR1 | 17 |
80/111 | 72.1% | 784 |
46.1 | 7 |
| Josh Downs WR2 | 16 |
58/88 | 65.9% | 566 |
35.4 | 4 |
| Tyler Warren TE | 17 |
76/112 | 67.9% | 817 |
48.1 | 4 |
MIN
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB27
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 | 140/243 |
57.6% | 1632 | 163.2 |
11 / 12 | 6.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Jordan Mason | 16 | 159 |
758 | 4.8 | 6 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 132 |
548 | 4.2 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | 17 |
84/141 | 59.6% | 1048 |
61.6 | 2 |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | 14 |
42/79 | 53.2% | 610 |
43.6 | 3 |
| T.J. Hockenson TE | 15 |
51/66 | 77.3% | 438 |
29.2 | 3 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 63%) and Aaron Jones (MIN, 46%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
IND
Leo’s chance
- Jonathan Taylor
RB1
63%
- Keenan Allen
WR1
30%
- Will Mallory
TE1
21%
MIN
Leo’s chance
- Aaron Jones
RB1
46%
- Jordan Addison
WR1
32%
- Jordan Mason
RB2
28%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.