Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

NONO at NYGNYG

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

NO moneyline-108
NYG moneyline-112
SpreadNO -1.5
Total46.5

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 10:19 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNYG 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.5points, both teams
Leo marginNYG by 6.4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Tyler Shough NO QB1 6.638.60.95 222
Jameis Winston NYG QB1 6.432.514 199

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Cam Skattebo NYG RB1 4.115.71.25 75
Alvin Kamara NO RB2 3.98.21.14 36
Kendre Miller NO RB1 4.17.41.14 35
Najee Harris NYG RB2 4.16.91.24 34

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 8.710.40.95 85
Malik Nabers NYG WR1 7.78.915 72
Malachi Fields NYG WR3 11.23.315 40
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 6.26.10.95 38
Darnell Mooney NYG WR2 5.6415 25
Bryce Lance NO WR3 1.930.95 9
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NO Game status

2 out · 5 questionable

  • Out Anfernee JenningsLB Knee
  • Out Kaden EllissLB Calf
  • Questionable Alvin KamaraRB Back
  • Questionable Chris OlaveWR Illness
  • Questionable Nathan ShepherdDT Illness
  • Questionable Lorenzo Styles Jr.CB Knee
  • Questionable Zach WoodLS Calf
NYG Game status

3 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Theo JohnsonTE Neck
  • Out Colton HoodCB Concussion
  • Out Tyler NubinS Neck
  • Questionable Andrew ThomasT Groin
  • Questionable Jermaine EluemunorT Calf
  • Questionable Abdul CarterLB Calf

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NO This season NYG
45 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 48
39 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 46
41 Overall 46
QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59 Last season QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NO Per game, this season NYG
1.00Interceptions thrown0.60
0.20Interceptions caught1.20
1.00Fumbles lost0.80
1.40Fumbles forced0.80
1.60Takeaways2.00
2.00Giveaways1.40
-0.4Net turnover margin+0.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NO Offense NYG
-0.029EPA per dropback+0.044
+1.8Completion % over expected-1.8
2.3%Interception rate1.8%
6.7%Sack rate taken7.8%
-0.097Rush EPA per carry-0.068
4.2%Explosive play rate4.6%
NO Defense NYG
+0.041EPA allowed per play+0.046
5.59Yards allowed per play5.9
3.6%Sack rate3.1%
0.6%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NO, right is NYG.

NO This season NYG
5Games5
259.8Pass yards/g211
81.8Rush yards/g109
9Passing TD9
5Interceptions thrown3
228.2Pass yards allowed/g209.6
148.8Rush yards allowed/g127.6
1Interceptions forced6
NO Last season NYG
236.9Pass yards/g217.8
94.3Rush yards/g129.1
19Passing TD21
12Interceptions thrown10
196.2Pass yards allowed/g229.9
120.6Rush yards allowed/g145.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough5137/205 66.8%1299259.8 9 / 56.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne330 1284.30
Kendre Miller429 832.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR15 39/5472.2%537 107.41
Devaughn Vele WR25 25/3767.6%252 50.42
Juwan Johnson TE5 25/3278.1%248 49.63
NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jameis Winston476/132 57.6%805201.3 6 / 36.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Cam Skattebo581 2943.61
Najee Harris427 973.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Nabers WR15 29/4663%329 65.82
Darnell Mooney WR25 8/1747.1%109 21.80
Isaiah Likely TE5 33/4868.8%284 56.84

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33
NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jaxson Dart14216/339 63.7%2272162.3 15 / 56.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.15176 7404.22
Devin Singletary17119 4373.75

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR116 92/14065.7%1014 63.44
Darius Slayton WR214 37/6358.7%538 38.41
Theo Johnson TE15 45/7460.8%528 35.25

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Cam Skattebo (NYG, 45%) and Malik Nabers (NYG, 42%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NO Leo’s chance
  1. Chris Olave WR1 38% scored
  2. Alvin Kamara RB1 30% scored
  3. Juwan Johnson TE1 26% no TD
NYG Leo’s chance
  1. Cam Skattebo RB1 45% no TD
  2. Malik Nabers WR1 42% no TD
  3. Isaiah Likely TE1 36% scored

Final result

NO 34 – 27 NYG

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NO
Tyler Shough QB 16/30144 yds3 TD0 INT
Kendre Miller RB 20 car70 yds0 TD2 rec, 0 yds
Alvin Kamara RB 7 car34 yds0 TD2 rec, 35 yds
CJ Donaldson RB 6 car39 yds0 TD
Chris Olave WR 4/743 yds1 TD
Devaughn Vele WR 3/642 yds0 TD
Alvin Kamara RB 2/435 yds1 TD
NYG
Jameis Winston QB 14/26152 yds1 TD2 INT
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB 6 car18 yds1 TD2 rec, 27 yds
Devin Singletary RB 4 car14 yds0 TD1 rec, 19 yds
Najee Harris RB 4 car2 yds0 TD
Malik Nabers WR 12/15165 yds0 TD
Isaiah Likely TE 6/1199 yds1 TD
Charlie Jones WR 2/366 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNYG 54%—NO wonNO PICK
Total points43.546.561no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNYG by 6.4NO −1.5NO by 7NYG +1.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Shough NO 227.5222 no side 144 78 Fewer attempts (30 vs 38.6 expected) NO LEAN
Jameis Winston NYG 220.5199 UNDER 152 47 Fewer attempts (26 vs 32.5 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kendre Miller NO 36.535 no side 70 35 More carries (20 vs 7.4 expected) NO LEAN
Najee Harris NYG 36.534 UNDER 2 32 Less efficient (0.5 vs 4.1 yds/carry) RIGHT
Alvin Kamara NO 24.536 OVER 34 2 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Malik Nabers NYG 72.572 no side 165 93 More efficient (11 vs 7.7 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Chris Olave NO 77.585 OVER 43 42 Fewer targets (7 vs 10.4 expected) WRONG
Darnell Mooney NYG 20.525 OVER 0 25 Fewer targets (2 vs 4 expected) WRONG
Malachi Fields NYG 24.540 OVER 19 21 Less efficient (2.4 vs 11.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Devaughn Vele NO 43.538 UNDER 42 4 On target RIGHT
Bryce Lance NO 13.59 UNDER 9 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.