Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

MIN at GB

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · Division game

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Packers at 65%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Green Bay Packers at 65%, while the margin model has Vikings by 0.2. Read it as a closer game than 65% suggests, which is why Leo makes no spread call.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

MIN This season GB

38 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 66

38 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 59

76 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 59

57 Overall 59

QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62 Last season QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIN	Per game, this season	GB
0.43	Interceptions thrown	0.67
1.14	Interceptions caught	1.44
0.29	Fumbles lost	0.44
0.71	Fumbles forced	0.67
1.86	Takeaways	2.11
0.71	Giveaways	1.11
+1.14	Net turnover margin	+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIN	Offense	GB
-0.081	EPA per dropback	+0.208
-1.0	Completion % over expected	+2.6
2.6%	Interception rate	1.6%
10.3%	Sack rate taken	4.9%
-0.120	Rush EPA per carry	-0.168
5.1%	Explosive play rate	7.5%
MIN	Defense	GB
-0.141	EPA allowed per play	-0.031
5.06	Yards allowed per play	5.18
5.6%	Sack rate	4.0%
1.5%	Interception rate forced	1.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIN, right is GB.

MIN	This season	GB
7	Games	9
185.4	Pass yards/g	290.9
113.9	Rush yards/g	68.2
8	Passing TD	19
3	Interceptions thrown	6
180.1	Pass yards allowed/g	231.9
116.7	Rush yards allowed/g	109
8	Interceptions forced	13
MIN	Last season	GB
188.7	Pass yards/g	231.6
108.3	Rush yards/g	118.7
18	Passing TD	30
21	Interceptions thrown	7
177.7	Pass yards allowed/g	215.4
124.1	Rush yards allowed/g	116.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Kyler Murray	6	100/154	64.9%	1022	170.3	5 / 3	6.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Aaron Jones	7	110	458	4.2	2
Jordan Mason	3	38	147	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Justin Jefferson WR1	6	28/40	70%	335	55.8	4
Jordan Addison WR2	6	16/33	48.5%	249	41.5	1
T.J. Hockenson TE	7	31/37	83.8%	295	42.1	3

GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jordan Love	9	215/341	63%	2618	290.9	19 / 6	7.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
MarShawn Lloyd	8	57	149	2.6	2
Kaleb Johnson	7	42	172	4.1	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Matthew Golden WR1	9	53/92	57.6%	783	87	5
Christian Watson WR2	9	49/74	66.2%	879	97.7	7
Tucker Kraft TE	9	36/52	69.2%	351	39	3

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
J.J. McCarthy	10	140/243	57.6%	1632	163.2	11 / 12	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jordan Mason	16	159	758	4.8	6
Aaron Jones	12	132	548	4.2	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Justin Jefferson WR1	17	84/141	59.6%	1048	61.6	2
Jordan Addison WR2	14	42/79	53.2%	610	43.6	3
T.J. Hockenson TE	15	51/66	77.3%	438	29.2	3

GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jordan Love	16	315/485	64.9%	3704	231.5	27 / 6	7.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Josh Jacobs	16	253	984	3.9	13
Emanuel Wilson	18	126	499	4	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Romeo Doubs WR1	17	63/96	65.6%	848	49.9	7
Christian Watson WR2	11	38/62	61.3%	647	58.8	7
Tucker Kraft TE	8	32/44	72.7%	489	61.1	6

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

MIN 2026

1. Justin Jefferson WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. T.J. Hockenson TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Aaron Jones RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

GB 2026

1. Christian Watson WR 7 0 rush · 7 rec
2. Matthew Golden WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
3. Tucker Kraft TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.