Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

CAR at NO

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf · Division game

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Panthers at 53%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Carolina Panthers at 53%, while the margin model has Saints by 0.7. Read it as a closer game than 53% suggests, which is why Leo makes no spread call.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

CAR This season NO

51 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47

51 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41

41 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47

46 Overall 44

QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CAR	Per game, this season	NO
0.75	Interceptions thrown	0.75
0.63	Interceptions caught	0.50
0.38	Fumbles lost	0.88
0.75	Fumbles forced	1.00
1.38	Takeaways	1.50
1.13	Giveaways	1.63
+0.25	Net turnover margin	-0.12

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CAR	Offense	NO
+0.030	EPA per dropback	-0.007
+1.0	Completion % over expected	+0.4
2.1%	Interception rate	2.0%
7.2%	Sack rate taken	6.6%
-0.044	Rush EPA per carry	-0.085
5.7%	Explosive play rate	4.1%
CAR	Defense	NO
+0.049	EPA allowed per play	+0.017
5.53	Yards allowed per play	5.69
2.4%	Sack rate	4.3%
1.1%	Interception rate forced	0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CAR, right is NO.

CAR	This season	NO
8	Games	8
280.5	Pass yards/g	248.3
101.3	Rush yards/g	95.3
16	Passing TD	14
6	Interceptions thrown	6
221.8	Pass yards allowed/g	255.6
133.4	Rush yards allowed/g	133.9
5	Interceptions forced	4
CAR	Last season	NO
198.2	Pass yards/g	236.9
114.4	Rush yards/g	94.3
25	Passing TD	19
13	Interceptions thrown	12
220.1	Pass yards allowed/g	196.2
122.9	Rush yards allowed/g	120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bryce Young	8	186/308	60.4%	2197	274.6	16 / 6	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chuba Hubbard	8	134	619	4.6	5
AJ Dillon	4	17	43	2.5	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tetairoa McMillan WR1	8	46/71	64.8%	625	78.1	3
Jalen Coker WR2	7	31/49	63.3%	393	56.1	3
Darren Waller TE	8	23/35	65.7%	299	37.4	4

NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Tyler Shough	8	204/308	66.2%	1986	248.3	14 / 6	6.4

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kendre Miller	6	57	159	2.8	2
Alvin Kamara	7	47	157	3.3	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Chris Olave WR1	8	56/83	67.5%	734	91.8	2
Devaughn Vele WR2	8	35/52	67.3%	365	45.6	3
Juwan Johnson TE	8	28/39	71.8%	289	36.1	4

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bryce Young	17	325/518	62.7%	3275	192.6	24 / 12	6.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Rico Dowdle	18	241	1085	4.5	6
Chuba Hubbard	16	147	557	3.8	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tetairoa McMillan WR1	18	75/129	58.1%	1095	60.8	7
Xavier Legette WR2	16	36/68	52.9%	371	23.2	3
Tommy Tremble TE	16	30/40	75%	271	16.9	2

NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Tyler Shough	11	221/327	67.6%	2384	216.7	10 / 6	7.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Alvin Kamara	11	131	471	3.6	1
Devin Neal	9	57	206	3.6	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Chris Olave WR1	16	100/156	64.1%	1163	72.7	9
Rashid Shaheed WR2	9	44/66	66.7%	499	55.4	2
Juwan Johnson TE	17	77/102	75.5%	889	52.3	3

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CAR 2026

1. Chuba Hubbard RB 7 5 rush · 2 rec
2. Darren Waller TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Tommy Tremble TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec

NO 2026

1. Juwan Johnson TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. Noah Fant TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Devaughn Vele WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.