Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

CLECLE at NONO

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf

CLE moneyline+100
NO moneyline-120
SpreadNO -1.5
Total43.5

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the New Orleans Saints a 55% chance to beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon, November 8, at Caesars Superdome, in Week 9. Neither team is above 60%, so the moneyline is a PASS. Leo projects 42.9 total points (posted total 43.5) and expects the Saints by 1.7 (posted spread Saints −1.5). Leo's calls: moneyline PASS, spread PASS and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson for the Browns and Tyler Shough for the Saints.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylinePASSNO 55%, under 60%
SpreadPASSLeo within 1 point of the line
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceNO 55%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total42.9points, both teams
Leo marginNO by 1.7expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Saints at 55%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

CLE This season NO
34 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47
36 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 39
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 46
47 Overall 43
QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CLE Per game, this season NO
0.38Interceptions thrown0.86
0.75Interceptions caught0.57
0.88Fumbles lost0.86
1.25Fumbles forced1.14
2.00Takeaways1.71
1.25Giveaways1.71
+0.75Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CLE Offense NO
-0.105EPA per dropback-0.002
-1.8Completion % over expected+0.6
1.9%Interception rate2.1%
10.5%Sack rate taken6.1%
-0.092Rush EPA per carry-0.110
5.3%Explosive play rate4.1%
CLE Defense NO
-0.037EPA allowed per play+0.029
5.35Yards allowed per play5.7
4.5%Sack rate4.1%
1.2%Interception rate forced0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CLE, right is NO.

CLE This season NO
8Games7
226Pass yards/g245.9
97.6Rush yards/g86
7Passing TD13
3Interceptions thrown6
214.6Pass yards allowed/g249.7
126.9Rush yards allowed/g139.4
6Interceptions forced4
CLE Last season NO
185.4Pass yards/g236.9
97Rush yards/g94.3
16Passing TD19
18Interceptions thrown12
189.4Pass yards allowed/g196.2
116.4Rush yards allowed/g120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB34

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson8163/249 65.5%1806225.8 7 / 37.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins7101 3423.43
Jaleel McLaughlin511 726.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Denzel Boston WR18 26/5349.1%409 51.13
KC Concepcion WR28 33/4967.3%352 440
Harold Fannin Jr. TE8 35/5168.6%411 51.43
NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough7183/273 67%1721245.9 13 / 66.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kendre Miller657 1592.82
Alvin Kamara641 12532

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR17 49/7169%636 90.92
Devaughn Vele WR27 33/4868.8%348 49.73
Juwan Johnson TE7 26/3770.3%255 36.43

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76
NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CLE 2026
  1. Harold Fannin Jr. TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. Quinshon Judkins RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  3. Denzel Boston WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
NO 2026
  1. Noah Fant TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. Juwan Johnson TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  3. Devaughn Vele WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Cleveland Browns games

More New Orleans Saints games