Week 7 · Sunday 09:30

PITPIT at NONO

Stade de France · dome · sportturf

PIT moneyline-162
NO moneyline+136
SpreadPIT -3
Total43.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chancePIT 53%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.7points, both teams
Leo marginPIT by 2.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 6.436.91.16 252
Tyler Shough NO QB1 6.437.516 228

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 4.714.11.26 78
Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 4.58.41.23 45
Kendre Miller NO RB1 49.30.95 36
Alvin Kamara NO RB2 3.97.80.95 30

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 8.310.116 86
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 6.78.11.16 63
Germie Bernard PIT WR2 7.56.11.15 54
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 6.26.116 41
Bryce Lance NO WR3 2.23.216 11
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Injury report

The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

PIT Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Ben SkowronekWR Calf
  • Out Brandin EcholsCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Rico DowdleRB Knee
  • Questionable DeShon ElliottS Knee
NO Game status

2 questionable

  • Questionable Cesar RuizG Knee
  • Questionable Nathan ShepherdDT Illness / Not injury related - resting player

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PIT This season NO
44 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
46 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 39
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47
52 Overall 43
QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PIT Per game, this season NO
0.83Interceptions thrown0.83
1.00Interceptions caught0.67
0.33Fumbles lost1.00
1.17Fumbles forced1.33
2.17Takeaways2.00
1.17Giveaways1.83
+1Net turnover margin+0.17

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PIT Offense NO
-0.067EPA per dropback-0.028
-0.6Completion % over expected+0.3
2.0%Interception rate2.1%
6.7%Sack rate taken6.2%
+0.005Rush EPA per carry-0.090
5.4%Explosive play rate4.1%
PIT Defense NO
-0.020EPA allowed per play+0.027
5.46Yards allowed per play5.7
4.3%Sack rate4.0%
1.5%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PIT, right is NO.

PIT This season NO
6Games6
247.8Pass yards/g240.5
99.2Rush yards/g97.3
12Passing TD12
5Interceptions thrown5
222Pass yards allowed/g256
103.2Rush yards allowed/g138
6Interceptions forced4
PIT Last season NO
210Pass yards/g236.9
101.1Rush yards/g94.3
26Passing TD19
10Interceptions thrown12
260.4Pass yards allowed/g196.2
115.9Rush yards allowed/g120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB44

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers6143/233 61.4%1487247.8 12 / 56.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren684 4605.51
Rico Dowdle322 773.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR16 30/5257.7%318 531
Germie Bernard WR25 24/3275%227 45.41
Pat Freiermuth TE6 21/2972.4%180 304
NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough6153/235 65.1%1443240.5 12 / 56.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kendre Miller549 1533.12
Alvin Kamara535 1203.42

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR16 43/6170.5%580 96.72
Devaughn Vele WR26 28/4365.1%294 492
Juwan Johnson TE6 25/3473.5%248 41.33

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32
NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaylen Warren (PIT, 42%) and Chris Olave (NO, 42%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
PIT Leo’s chance
  1. Jaylen Warren RB1 42%
  2. DK Metcalf WR1 35%
  3. Pat Freiermuth TE1 25%
NO Leo’s chance
  1. Chris Olave WR1 42%
  2. Kendre Miller RB1 29%
  3. Juwan Johnson TE1 27%

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.