Week 8 · Sunday 16:05

LACLAC at LALA

SoFi Stadium · dome

LAC moneyline+230
LA moneyline-285
SpreadLA -6.5
Total46.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Los Angeles Rams an 82% chance to beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at SoFi Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 43.9 total points (posted total 46.5) and expects the Rams by 11.2 (posted spread Rams −6.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Kyren Williams (57%) and Puka Nacua (53%). Starting quarterbacks: Justin Herbert for the Chargers and Matthew Stafford for the Rams.

Final: Rams 24, Chargers 9. Leo gave the Los Angeles Rams an 82% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 33 points against Leo's 43.9 and the posted 46.5. Touchdowns: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Blake Corum.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 3:42 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickLA 82%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -290 at the read
Leo total43.9points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 11.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1 7.338.70.97 249
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 6.630.516 187

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kyren Williams LA RB1 4.813.91.17 75
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 4.213.41.16 62
Blake Corum LA RB2 4.79.11.17 48
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 4.35.51.16 27

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Puka Nacua LA WR1 8.711.80.95 96
Quentin Johnston LAC WR3 12.44.915 63
Tre Harris LAC WR2 8.74.315 40
Konata Mumpfield LA WR2 5.130.96 18
Tutu Atwell LA WR3 7.81.50.93 14
KeAndre Lambert-Smith LAC WR1 3.3311 13

Why Leo has the Rams at 82%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 3:42 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LAC Game status

4 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Brenen ThompsonWR Quadricep / Hamstring
  • Out Kayode AwosikaG Fibula
  • Out Deane LeonardCB Concussion
  • Out Derwin JamesS Hamstring
  • Questionable Donte JacksonCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Rodney ShelleyCB Hamstring
LA Game status

1 doubtful · 4 questionable

  • Doubtful Joe CardonaLS Ankle
  • Questionable Jordan WhittingtonWR Back
  • Questionable Colby ParkinsonTE Rib
  • Questionable Coleman SheltonC Hip
  • Questionable Trent McDuffieCB Groin

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

LAC This season LA
25 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 62
28 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 61
61 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 57
44 Overall 59
QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66 Last season QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LAC Per game, this season LA
1.33Interceptions thrown1.00
0.83Interceptions caught0.71
1.00Fumbles lost0.57
1.50Fumbles forced0.86
2.33Takeaways1.57
2.33Giveaways1.57
0Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LAC Offense LA
-0.157EPA per dropback+0.160
-3.4Completion % over expected+1.1
3.6%Interception rate2.0%
10.2%Sack rate taken3.8%
-0.111Rush EPA per carry-0.024
4.7%Explosive play rate6.1%
LAC Defense LA
-0.061EPA allowed per play-0.045
5.48Yards allowed per play5.21
3.7%Sack rate3.0%
1.6%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LAC, right is LA.

LAC This season LA
6Games7
190.2Pass yards/g286
119Rush yards/g125
5Passing TD14
8Interceptions thrown7
216.2Pass yards allowed/g193
123.8Rush yards allowed/g115.7
5Interceptions forced5
LAC Last season LA
228.4Pass yards/g282.2
119.7Rush yards/g124.7
26Passing TD52
14Interceptions thrown9
199Pass yards allowed/g242.8
107.6Rush yards allowed/g110.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB25

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert6107/180 59.4%1141190.2 5 / 86.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton680 2893.63
Keaton Mitchell635 13940

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Harris WR15 15/2560%225 450
Quentin Johnston WR25 8/2236.4%165 330
Oronde Gadsden II TE6 12/2157.1%103 17.21
LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford7187/278 67.3%1989284.1 14 / 77.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams796 4925.15
Blake Corum764 3164.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR15 45/6272.6%485 972
Davante Adams WR26 30/4961.2%480 804
Tyler Higbee TE6 26/3281.3%260 43.31

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43
LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford20454/716 63.4%5643282.2 52 / 97.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams20303 14354.712
Blake Corum20171 8655.16

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR119 153/20873.6%2047 107.712
Davante Adams WR217 71/13951.1%974 57.315
Colby Parkinson TE17 51/7072.9%560 32.99

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Kyren Williams (LA, 57%) and Puka Nacua (LA, 53%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LAC Leo’s chance
  1. Omarion Hampton RB1 35% no TD
  2. KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR1 19% no TD
  3. Oronde Gadsden II TE1 15% no TD
LA Leo’s chance
  1. Kyren Williams RB1 57% scored
  2. Puka Nacua WR1 53% scored
  3. Blake Corum RB2 27% scored

Final result

LAC 9 – 24 LA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LAC
Justin Herbert QB 24/32257 yds0 TD2 INT
Omarion Hampton RB 9 car20 yds0 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Kimani Vidal RB 8 car23 yds0 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Keaton Mitchell RB 4 car6 yds0 TD3 rec, 17 yds
Ladd McConkey WR 4/686 yds0 TD
Oronde Gadsden II TE 5/552 yds0 TD
Quentin Johnston WR 4/437 yds0 TD
LA
Matthew Stafford QB 17/25157 yds1 TD1 INT
Kyren Williams RB 16 car56 yds1 TD1 rec, 3 yds
Blake Corum RB 11 car73 yds1 TD
Puka Nacua WR 11/1280 yds1 TD
Tutu Atwell WR 2/452 yds0 TD
Tyler Higbee TE 1/214 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLA 82%—LA wonRIGHT
Total points43.946.533no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginLA by 11.2LA −6.5LA by 15LA −6.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Stafford LA 251.5249 no side 157 92 Fewer attempts (25 vs 38.7 expected) NO LEAN
Justin Herbert LAC 205.5187 UNDER 257 70 More efficient (8 vs 6.6 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Omarion Hampton LAC 33.562 OVER 20 42 Fewer carries (9 vs 13.4 expected) WRONG
Blake Corum LA 47.548 no side 73 25 More efficient (6.6 vs 4.7 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Keaton Mitchell LAC 15.527 OVER 6 21 Less efficient (1.5 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Kyren Williams LA 60.575 OVER 56 19 Less efficient (3.5 vs 4.8 yds/carry) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tutu Atwell LA —14 no side 52 38 More efficient (13 vs 7.8 yds/tgt)
Quentin Johnston LAC 33.563 OVER 37 26 Less efficient (9.3 vs 12.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Konata Mumpfield LA 17.518 no side 0 18 Less efficient (0 vs 5.1 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Puka Nacua LA 93.596 no side 80 16 Less efficient (6.7 vs 8.7 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
KeAndre Lambert-Smith LAC —13 no side 0 13
Tre Harris LAC 32.540 OVER 31 9 Fewer targets (3 vs 4.3 expected) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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