Week 7 · Sunday 16:25
LA
at
LV
Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
LA moneyline-175
LV moneyline+145
SpreadLA -3
Total48.5
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceLA 66%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total50.1points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 3.5expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford LA QB1 |
7.4 | 39.9 | 1.1 | 6 |
313 |
| Kirk Cousins LV QB1 |
7.2 | 34.4 | 0.9 | 6 |
205 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Kyren Williams LA RB1 |
4.8 | 13.8 | 1.2 | 6 |
77 |
| Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 |
3.7 | 16 | 1.2 | 6 |
70 |
| Blake Corum LA RB2 |
4.6 | 8 | 1.2 | 6 |
44 |
| Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 |
4.6 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 6 |
30 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Puka Nacua LA WR1 |
9.4 | 11.9 | 1.1 | 4 |
126 |
| Tre Tucker LV WR1 |
9.6 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 6 |
51 |
| Konata Mumpfield LA WR2 |
5.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 5 |
21 |
| Jalen Nailor LV WR2 |
4.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 4 |
18 |
| Tutu Atwell LA WR3 |
7.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 |
17 |
| Cody White LV WR3 |
6.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 |
14 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
LA
Game status
1 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Nate LandmanLB
Concussion
- Questionable
Puka NacuaWR
Calf
- Questionable
Trent McDuffieCB
Groin
LV
Game status
2 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR
Hamstring
- Out
Carter RunyonTE
Foot
- Questionable
Mike Washington Jr.RB
Foot / Back
- Questionable
Quay WalkerLB
Chest
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
LA
This season
LV
61
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
49
62
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
41
56
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
44
59
Overall
42
QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55
Last season
QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| LA |
Per game, this season |
LV |
| 1.00 | Interceptions thrown | 0.83 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Interceptions caught | 0.67 |
|---|
| 0.50 | Fumbles lost | 0.17 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Fumbles forced | 1.83 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Takeaways | 2.50 |
|---|
| 1.50 | Giveaways | 1.00 |
|---|
| +0.33 | Net turnover margin | +1.5 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| LA |
Offense |
LV |
| +0.160 | EPA per dropback | +0.049 |
|---|
| +0.7 | Completion % over expected | -0.6 |
|---|
| 1.9% | Interception rate | 2.8% |
|---|
| 3.8% | Sack rate taken | 6.5% |
|---|
| -0.039 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.262 |
|---|
| 6.7% | Explosive play rate | 5.2% |
|---|
| LA |
Defense |
LV |
| -0.032 | EPA allowed per play | +0.035 |
|---|
| 5.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.85 |
|---|
| 2.9% | Sack rate | 3.8% |
|---|
| 1.4% | Interception rate forced | 0.9% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LA, right is LV.
| LA |
This season |
LV |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 301.2 | Pass yards/g | 271.7 |
|---|
| 112.7 | Rush yards/g | 79.2 |
|---|
| 11 | Passing TD | 14 |
|---|
| 6 | Interceptions thrown | 5 |
|---|
| 173.8 | Pass yards allowed/g | 253.5 |
|---|
| 127 | Rush yards allowed/g | 134.3 |
|---|
| 5 | Interceptions forced | 4 |
|---|
| LA |
Last season |
LV |
| 282.2 | Pass yards/g | 195 |
|---|
| 124.7 | Rush yards/g | 77.5 |
|---|
| 52 | Passing TD | 20 |
|---|
| 9 | Interceptions thrown | 19 |
|---|
| 242.8 | Pass yards allowed/g | 214.4 |
|---|
| 110.1 | Rush yards allowed/g | 116.8 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
LA
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB61
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 164/249 |
65.9% | 1794 | 299 |
11 / 6 | 7.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 80 |
393 | 4.9 | 4 |
| Blake Corum | 6 | 47 |
223 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Puka Nacua WR1 | 4 |
37/52 | 71.2% | 417 |
104.3 | 1 |
| Davante Adams WR2 | 6 |
30/49 | 61.2% | 480 |
80 | 4 |
| Tyler Higbee TE | 5 |
24/29 | 82.8% | 246 |
49.2 | 1 |
LV
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB49
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 135/213 |
63.4% | 1582 | 263.7 |
14 / 5 | 7.4 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 98 |
313 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 6 | 34 |
168 | 4.9 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Tre Tucker WR1 | 6 |
24/35 | 68.6% | 371 |
61.8 | 3 |
| Cody White WR2 | 6 |
7/16 | 43.8% | 108 |
18 | 3 |
| Brock Bowers TE | 4 |
28/43 | 65.1% | 382 |
95.5 | 3 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
LA
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB72
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20 | 454/716 |
63.4% | 5643 | 282.2 |
52 / 9 | 7.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Kyren Williams | 20 | 303 |
1435 | 4.7 | 12 |
| Blake Corum | 20 | 171 |
865 | 5.1 | 6 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Puka Nacua WR1 | 19 |
153/208 | 73.6% | 2047 |
107.7 | 12 |
| Davante Adams WR2 | 17 |
71/139 | 51.1% | 974 |
57.3 | 15 |
| Colby Parkinson TE | 17 |
51/70 | 72.9% | 560 |
32.9 | 9 |
LV
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB31
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Geno Smith | 15 | 302/448 |
67.4% | 3025 | 201.7 |
19 / 17 | 6.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 17 | 266 |
975 | 3.7 | 5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 22 |
104 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Tre Tucker WR1 | 17 |
57/92 | 62% | 696 |
40.9 | 5 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR2 | 7 |
33/49 | 67.3% | 352 |
50.3 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers TE | 12 |
64/86 | 74.4% | 680 |
56.7 | 7 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Kyren Williams (LA, 55%) and Ashton Jeanty (LV, 51%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LA
Leo’s chance
- Kyren Williams
RB1
55%
- Puka Nacua
WR1
50%
- Tyler Higbee
TE1
24%
LV
Leo’s chance
- Ashton Jeanty
RB1
51%
- Brock Bowers
TE1
43%
- Tre Tucker
WR1
33%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.