Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

LA at WAS

Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Rams at 60%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

LA This season WAS

60 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 52

60 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 52

61 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 40

60 Overall 46

QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55 Last season QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LA	Per game, this season	WAS
1.00	Interceptions thrown	0.14
0.88	Interceptions caught	0.57
0.50	Fumbles lost	0.29
0.88	Fumbles forced	1.00
1.75	Takeaways	1.57
1.50	Giveaways	0.43
+0.25	Net turnover margin	+1.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LA	Offense	WAS
+0.140	EPA per dropback	+0.014
+0.6	Completion % over expected	+1.8
2.2%	Interception rate	1.2%
3.8%	Sack rate taken	6.8%
-0.018	Rush EPA per carry	-0.008
5.9%	Explosive play rate	5.9%
LA	Defense	WAS
-0.078	EPA allowed per play	+0.075
5.23	Yards allowed per play	5.83
3.0%	Sack rate	3.7%
1.5%	Interception rate forced	0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LA, right is WAS.

LA	This season	WAS
8	Games	7
269.9	Pass yards/g	214.6
125.5	Rush yards/g	126.6
15	Passing TD	11
8	Interceptions thrown	1
201	Pass yards allowed/g	260
109.3	Rush yards allowed/g	99.1
7	Interceptions forced	4
LA	Last season	WAS
282.2	Pass yards/g	195.8
124.7	Rush yards/g	134.7
52	Passing TD	19
9	Interceptions thrown	12
242.8	Pass yards allowed/g	257.1
110.1	Rush yards allowed/g	141.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB60

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	8	204/303	67.3%	2146	268.3	15 / 8	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	8	112	548	4.9	6
Blake Corum	8	75	389	5.2	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Puka Nacua WR1	6	56/74	75.7%	565	94.2	3
Davante Adams WR2	6	30/49	61.2%	480	80	4
Tyler Higbee TE	7	27/34	79.4%	274	39.1	1

WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jayden Daniels	5	91/145	62.8%	976	195.2	6 / 0	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5	67	239	3.6	2
Rachaad White	6	47	200	4.3	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Stefon Diggs WR1	6	27/44	61.4%	252	42	5
Antonio Williams WR2	7	23/33	69.7%	259	37	1
Chig Okonkwo TE	5	17/24	70.8%	182	36.4	0

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Matthew Stafford	20	454/716	63.4%	5643	282.2	52 / 9	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kyren Williams	20	303	1435	4.7	12
Blake Corum	20	171	865	5.1	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Puka Nacua WR1	19	153/208	73.6%	2047	107.7	12
Davante Adams WR2	17	71/139	51.1%	974	57.3	15
Colby Parkinson TE	17	51/70	72.9%	560	32.9	9

WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Marcus Mariota	10	139/227	61.2%	1695	169.5	10 / 7	7.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	17	175	805	4.6	8
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	12	112	500	4.5	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR1	16	72/99	72.7%	727	45.4	5
Terry McLaurin WR2	10	38/60	63.3%	582	58.2	3
Zach Ertz TE	13	50/72	69.4%	504	38.8	4

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

LA 2026

1. Kyren Williams RB 7 6 rush · 1 rec
2. Davante Adams WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Puka Nacua WR 4 1 rush · 3 rec

WAS 2026

1. Stefon Diggs WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Rachaad White RB 3 1 rush · 2 rec
3. Jayden Daniels QB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.