Week 8 · Sunday 16:25

KCKC at DENDEN

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · Division game

KC moneyline-108
DEN moneyline-112
SpreadDEN -1.5
Total41.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 59% chance to beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Empower Field at Mile High, in Week 8. Neither team is above 60%, so Leo calls it too close to call. Leo projects 42.6 total points (posted total 41.5) and expects the Chiefs by 0.9 (posted spread Broncos −1.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Kenneth Walker III (56%) and J.K. Dobbins (35%). Starting quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs and Bo Nix for the Broncos.

Final: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24. Leo gave the Kansas City Chiefs a 59% chance, so the winner read was wrong. The game totaled 52 points against Leo's 42.6 and the posted 41.5. Touchdowns: Noah Gray, Rashee Rice, Emmett Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, Nate Adkins and Jonah Coleman.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Too close to callKC 59%under 60%, so no pick; win chance only
Leo total42.6points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 0.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 7.632.816 236
Bo Nix DEN QB1 632.21.17 196

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 4.918.51.16 101
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 4.414.30.97 61
Jonah Coleman DEN RB2 4.57.70.93 34
Emmett Johnson KC RB2 4.23.11.16 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Rashee Rice KC WR2 10.17.213 75
Xavier Worthy KC WR1 75.616 42
Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 6.45.41.17 40
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR1 4.96.91.17 39
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR3 8.42.61.15 27
Andrew Armstrong KC WR3 4212 11

Why Leo has the Chiefs at 59%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Kansas City Chiefs at 59%, while the margin model has Chiefs by 0.9. Read it as a closer game than 59% suggests.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

KC Game status

1 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Omarr Norman-LottDT Knee
  • Questionable R Mason ThomasDE Not injury related - personal matter
  • Questionable L'Jarius SneedCB Knee
  • Questionable Mansoor DelaneCB Shoulder
DEN Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out RJ HarveyRB Knee
  • Out Talanoa HufangaS Ankle
  • Questionable Jaylen WaddleWR Chest
  • Questionable Garett BollesT Hip
  • Questionable Zach AllenDE Hamstring
  • Questionable Brandon JonesS Hamstring

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

KC This season DEN
52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 44
54 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 65
57 Overall 55
QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51 Last season QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

KC Per game, this season DEN
0.67Interceptions thrown0.43
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.29
0.67Fumbles forced0.86
1.67Takeaways1.86
0.67Giveaways0.71
+1Net turnover margin+1.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

KC Offense DEN
+0.084EPA per dropback-0.005
-0.3Completion % over expected-2.2
2.1%Interception rate1.6%
5.1%Sack rate taken3.8%
+0.064Rush EPA per carry-0.044
5.9%Explosive play rate4.5%
KC Defense DEN
-0.040EPA allowed per play-0.057
5.19Yards allowed per play5.13
2.4%Sack rate5.0%
1.3%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is KC, right is DEN.

KC This season DEN
6Games7
245.7Pass yards/g181.6
141.5Rush yards/g94.9
9Passing TD7
4Interceptions thrown3
229.5Pass yards allowed/g236
99.5Rush yards allowed/g133.3
6Interceptions forced7
KC Last season DEN
232.2Pass yards/g228.6
106.6Rush yards/g114.1
23Passing TD29
12Interceptions thrown13
205.1Pass yards allowed/g209.2
105.7Rush yards allowed/g98.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes6124/191 64.9%1474245.7 9 / 47.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III6120 7015.86
Emmett Johnson619 623.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Worthy WR16 24/3568.6%217 36.21
Rashee Rice WR23 13/1776.5%190 63.31
Travis Kelce TE6 24/3568.6%343 57.22
DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix7129/218 59.2%1271181.6 7 / 35.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
J.K. Dobbins787 2933.43
RJ Harvey624 873.61

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR17 26/4557.8%276 39.41
Courtland Sutton WR27 16/3348.5%168 241
Evan Engram TE7 13/2259.1%136 19.41

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15
DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix18414/658 62.9%4210233.9 28 / 126.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
RJ Harvey19165 5973.67
J.K. Dobbins10153 77254

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Courtland Sutton WR119 81/13858.7%1087 57.28
Troy Franklin WR217 65/10462.5%709 41.76
Evan Engram TE18 53/8264.6%487 27.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Kenneth Walker III (KC, 56%) and J.K. Dobbins (DEN, 35%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
KC Leo’s chance
  1. Kenneth Walker III RB1 56% no TD
  2. Rashee Rice WR2 26% scored
  3. Xavier Worthy WR1 25% no TD
DEN Leo’s chance
  1. J.K. Dobbins RB1 35% no TD
  2. Jaylen Waddle WR1 29% scored
  3. Courtland Sutton WR2 21% no TD

Final result

KC 24 – 28 DEN

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

KC
Patrick Mahomes QB 30/41321 yds3 TD0 INT
Kenneth Walker III RB 21 car69 yds0 TD4 rec, 15 yds
Emmett Johnson RB 1 car15 yds0 TD5 rec, 128 yds
Emmett Johnson RB 5/5128 yds1 TD
Travis Kelce TE 5/767 yds0 TD
Rashee Rice WR 7/853 yds1 TD
DEN
Bo Nix QB 20/32222 yds2 TD0 INT
Jonah Coleman RB 11 car41 yds1 TD4 rec, 63 yds
J.K. Dobbins RB 7 car13 yds0 TD
Marvin Mims Jr. WR 2 car19 yds0 TD2 rec, 10 yds
Jonah Coleman RB 4/563 yds0 TD
Courtland Sutton WR 4/453 yds0 TD
Jaylen Waddle WR 3/639 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerKC 59%—DEN wonNO PICK
Total points42.641.552no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginKC by 0.9KC −1.5DEN by 4no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Patrick Mahomes KC 221.5236 OVER 321 85 More attempts (41 vs 32.8 expected) RIGHT
Bo Nix DEN 208.5196 UNDER 222 26 More efficient (6.9 vs 6 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
J.K. Dobbins DEN 30.561 OVER 13 48 Fewer carries (7 vs 14.3 expected) WRONG
Kenneth Walker III KC 86.5101 OVER 69 32 Less efficient (3.3 vs 4.9 yds/carry) WRONG
Jonah Coleman DEN 43.534 UNDER 41 7 On target RIGHT
Emmett Johnson KC 7.516 OVER 15 1 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Xavier Worthy KC 31.542 OVER 13 29 Less efficient (2.2 vs 7 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rashee Rice KC 50.575 OVER 53 22 Less efficient (6.6 vs 10.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN 15.527 OVER 10 17 Less efficient (3.3 vs 8.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Courtland Sutton DEN 37.540 OVER 53 13 More efficient (13.3 vs 6.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Andrew Armstrong KC —11 no side 0 11
Jaylen Waddle DEN 40.539 no side 39 0 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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