Week 9 · Sunday 13:00

DEN at CAR

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Panthers at 51%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Carolina Panthers at 51%, while the margin model has Broncos by 2. Read it as a closer game than 51% suggests, which is why Leo makes no spread call.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

DEN This season CAR

48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 49

46 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 49

61 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 41

54 Overall 45

QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68 Last season QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DEN	Per game, this season	CAR
0.38	Interceptions thrown	0.71
0.88	Interceptions caught	0.57
0.25	Fumbles lost	0.29
0.75	Fumbles forced	0.86
1.63	Takeaways	1.43
0.63	Giveaways	1.00
+1	Net turnover margin	+0.43

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DEN	Offense	CAR
+0.014	EPA per dropback	+0.019
-2.3	Completion % over expected	+0.1
1.4%	Interception rate	2.0%
3.8%	Sack rate taken	7.2%
-0.045	Rush EPA per carry	-0.053
4.7%	Explosive play rate	5.5%
DEN	Defense	CAR
-0.040	EPA allowed per play	+0.052
5.21	Yards allowed per play	5.58
4.9%	Sack rate	2.4%
1.2%	Interception rate forced	1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DEN, right is CAR.

DEN	This season	CAR
8	Games	7
186.6	Pass yards/g	281.1
92.6	Rush yards/g	102
9	Passing TD	13
3	Interceptions thrown	5
246.6	Pass yards allowed/g	219.6
127.9	Rush yards allowed/g	140.7
7	Interceptions forced	4
DEN	Last season	CAR
228.6	Pass yards/g	198.2
114.1	Rush yards/g	114.4
29	Passing TD	25
13	Interceptions thrown	13
209.2	Pass yards allowed/g	220.1
98.5	Rush yards allowed/g	122.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bo Nix	8	149/250	59.6%	1493	186.6	9 / 3	6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
J.K. Dobbins	8	94	306	3.3	3
Jonah Coleman	4	30	134	4.5	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jaylen Waddle WR1	8	29/51	56.9%	315	39.4	2
Courtland Sutton WR2	8	20/37	54.1%	221	27.6	1
Evan Engram TE	8	13/25	52%	136	17	1

CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bryce Young	7	158/269	58.7%	1921	274.4	13 / 5	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chuba Hubbard	7	118	540	4.6	5
AJ Dillon	4	17	43	2.5	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tetairoa McMillan WR1	7	42/65	64.6%	569	81.3	2
Jalen Coker WR2	6	27/44	61.4%	364	60.7	3
Darren Waller TE	7	15/25	60%	209	29.9	3

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bo Nix	18	414/658	62.9%	4210	233.9	28 / 12	6.4

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
RJ Harvey	19	165	597	3.6	7
J.K. Dobbins	10	153	772	5	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Courtland Sutton WR1	19	81/138	58.7%	1087	57.2	8
Troy Franklin WR2	17	65/104	62.5%	709	41.7	6
Evan Engram TE	18	53/82	64.6%	487	27.1	1

CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Bryce Young	17	325/518	62.7%	3275	192.6	24 / 12	6.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Rico Dowdle	18	241	1085	4.5	6
Chuba Hubbard	16	147	557	3.8	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tetairoa McMillan WR1	18	75/129	58.1%	1095	60.8	7
Xavier Legette WR2	16	36/68	52.9%	371	23.2	3
Tommy Tremble TE	16	30/40	75%	271	16.9	2

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

DEN 2026

1. J.K. Dobbins RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
2. Nate Adkins TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Bo Nix QB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

CAR 2026

1. Chuba Hubbard RB 7 5 rush · 2 rec
2. Darren Waller TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. Jalen Coker WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.