Week 6 · Thursday 20:15

SEASEA at DENDEN

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors

SEA moneyline-155
DEN moneyline+130
SpreadSEA -2.5
Total40.5

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 15, 1:26 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSEA 59%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.6points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Sam Darnold SEA QB1 7.92614 199
Bo Nix DEN QB1 633.40.95 167

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Emanuel Wilson SEA RB1 413.61.15 64
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 4.613.415 60
George Holani SEA RB2 3.94.81.15 23
RJ Harvey DEN RB2 3.74.914 19

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 11.69.815 118
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR1 5.36.80.95 35
Cooper Kupp SEA WR3 8.43.515 33
Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 5.25.80.95 30
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR2 5.74.115 27
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR3 2.92.40.93 10
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Sat, Oct 17, 9:01 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

SEA Game status

3 out

  • Out Zach CharbonnetRB Knee
  • Out Chazz SurrattLB Calf
  • Out Drake ThomasLB Ankle
DEN Game status

2 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Pat Surtain IICB Ankle
  • Out Talanoa HufangaS Ankle
  • Questionable Riley MossCB Ribs

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

SEA This season DEN
58 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
48 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
75 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 62
62 Overall 53
QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69 Last season QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SEA Per game, this season DEN
1.00Interceptions thrown0.60
1.40Interceptions caught1.00
0.80Fumbles lost0.40
0.40Fumbles forced0.80
1.80Takeaways1.80
1.80Giveaways1.00
0Net turnover margin+0.8

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SEA Offense DEN
+0.097EPA per dropback0.000
+4.1Completion % over expected-2.2
3.1%Interception rate1.9%
6.3%Sack rate taken3.6%
-0.163Rush EPA per carry-0.076
6.4%Explosive play rate4.5%
SEA Defense DEN
-0.127EPA allowed per play-0.046
4.69Yards allowed per play5.22
4.6%Sack rate5.0%
2.0%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SEA, right is DEN.

SEA This season DEN
5Games5
238.2Pass yards/g188.4
106Rush yards/g86.2
11Passing TD6
5Interceptions thrown3
166.8Pass yards allowed/g220.4
100.4Rush yards allowed/g145.2
7Interceptions forced5
SEA Last season DEN
236.8Pass yards/g228.6
124.4Rush yards/g114.1
30Passing TD29
15Interceptions thrown13
221.6Pass yards allowed/g209.2
93.2Rush yards allowed/g98.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold463/98 64.3%755188.8 7 / 57.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Emanuel Wilson573 2513.42
Jadarian Price328 1194.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR15 37/5074%583 116.67
Rashid Shaheed WR25 9/1947.4%96 19.20
AJ Barner TE5 12/2060%122 24.40
DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix597/162 59.9%942188.4 6 / 35.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
J.K. Dobbins564 2293.61
RJ Harvey415 563.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR15 18/3158.1%204 40.81
Courtland Sutton WR25 11/2544%104 20.81
Evan Engram TE5 10/1758.8%121 24.21

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37
DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix18414/658 62.9%4210233.9 28 / 126.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
RJ Harvey19165 5973.67
J.K. Dobbins10153 77254

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Courtland Sutton WR119 81/13858.7%1087 57.28
Troy Franklin WR217 65/10462.5%709 41.76
Evan Engram TE18 53/8264.6%487 27.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, 63%) and Emanuel Wilson (SEA, 31%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
SEA Leo’s chance
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 63% no TD
  2. Emanuel Wilson RB1 31% no TD
  3. Cooper Kupp WR3 17% no TD
DEN Leo’s chance
  1. J.K. Dobbins RB1 24% scored
  2. Courtland Sutton WR2 22% no TD
  3. Jaylen Waddle WR1 21% no TD

Final result

SEA 14 – 17 DEN (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

SEA
Sam Darnold QB 27/51278 yds0 TD2 INT
Emanuel Wilson RB 14 car52 yds0 TD
George Holani RB 5 car20 yds1 TD
Velus Jones Jr. RB 4 car20 yds0 TD1 rec, -1 yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 12/16134 yds0 TD
Rashid Shaheed WR 5/866 yds0 TD
Cooper Kupp WR 5/1050 yds0 TD
DEN
Bo Nix QB 17/27107 yds0 TD0 INT
J.K. Dobbins RB 17 car41 yds1 TD3 rec, 5 yds
RJ Harvey RB 6 car25 yds1 TD3 rec, 31 yds
Tyler Badie RB 1 car6 yds0 TD
RJ Harvey RB 3/431 yds0 TD
Jaylen Waddle WR 4/724 yds0 TD
Courtland Sutton WR 2/319 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSEA 59%—DEN wonNO PICK
Total points44.640.531OVER · WRONG
MarginSEA by 5SEA −2.5DEN by 3SEA −2.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Sam Darnold SEA 223.5199 UNDER 278 79 More attempts (51 vs 26 expected) WRONG
Bo Nix DEN 200.5167 UNDER 107 60 Less efficient (4 vs 6 yds/att) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
J.K. Dobbins DEN 48.560 OVER 41 19 Less efficient (2.4 vs 4.6 yds/carry) WRONG
Emanuel Wilson SEA 66.564 no side 52 12 Less efficient (3.7 vs 4 yds/carry) NO LEAN
RJ Harvey DEN 14.519 OVER 25 6 On target RIGHT
George Holani SEA 14.523 OVER 20 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Rashid Shaheed SEA 21.527 OVER 66 39 More targets (8 vs 4.1 expected) RIGHT
Cooper Kupp SEA 22.533 OVER 50 17 More targets (10 vs 3.5 expected) RIGHT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 92.5118 OVER 134 16 More targets (16 vs 9.8 expected) RIGHT
Jaylen Waddle DEN 45.535 UNDER 24 11 Less efficient (3.4 vs 5.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Courtland Sutton DEN 31.530 no side 19 11 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.8 expected) NO LEAN
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN 10.510 no side 13 3 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.