Week 10 · Sunday 20:20

PIT at CIN

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · Division game

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Bengals at 65%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

PIT This season CIN

43 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 71

50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 60

62 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 43

56 Overall 51

QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52 Last season QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PIT	Per game, this season	CIN
0.75	Interceptions thrown	0.75
0.88	Interceptions caught	0.63
0.25	Fumbles lost	0.38
1.25	Fumbles forced	1.38
2.13	Takeaways	2.00
1.00	Giveaways	1.13
+1.13	Net turnover margin	+0.88

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PIT	Offense	CIN
-0.065	EPA per dropback	+0.187
-1.4	Completion % over expected	+6.9
2.0%	Interception rate	2.2%
6.8%	Sack rate taken	5.0%
+0.047	Rush EPA per carry	-0.067
5.8%	Explosive play rate	5.4%
PIT	Defense	CIN
-0.032	EPA allowed per play	+0.053
5.46	Yards allowed per play	6.15
5.0%	Sack rate	4.2%
1.4%	Interception rate forced	1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PIT, right is CIN.

PIT	This season	CIN
8	Games	8
233.9	Pass yards/g	298.3
117.9	Rush yards/g	85.6
13	Passing TD	23
6	Interceptions thrown	6
242	Pass yards allowed/g	248.6
83.9	Rush yards allowed/g	126.6
7	Interceptions forced	5
PIT	Last season	CIN
210	Pass yards/g	249.6
101.1	Rush yards/g	93.6
26	Passing TD	36
10	Interceptions thrown	17
260.4	Pass yards allowed/g	245.6
115.9	Rush yards allowed/g	147.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB43

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Aaron Rodgers	8	175/288	60.8%	1871	233.9	13 / 6	6.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jaylen Warren	8	119	704	5.9	2
Rico Dowdle	5	46	174	3.8	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
DK Metcalf WR1	8	33/64	51.6%	378	47.3	1
Germie Bernard WR2	7	32/42	76.2%	284	40.6	1
Pat Freiermuth TE	8	25/35	71.4%	235	29.4	4

CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB71

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Joe Burrow	8	219/296	74%	2386	298.3	23 / 6	8.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chase Brown	8	103	397	3.9	1
Samaje Perine	8	46	179	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Ja'Marr Chase WR1	8	53/73	72.6%	647	80.9	7
Tee Higgins WR2	8	48/67	71.6%	758	94.8	6
Mike Gesicki TE	7	19/26	73.1%	252	36	6

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Aaron Rodgers	17	344/531	64.8%	3468	204	24 / 8	6.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jaylen Warren	17	223	1001	4.5	6
Kenny Gainwell	18	120	557	4.6	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
DK Metcalf WR1	16	61/104	58.7%	892	55.8	6
Calvin Austin III WR2	15	34/61	55.7%	380	25.3	3
Jonnu Smith TE	18	40/57	70.2%	221	12.3	2

CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Joe Burrow	8	173/259	66.8%	1809	226.1	17 / 5	7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chase Brown	17	232	1019	4.4	6
Samaje Perine	15	84	382	4.5	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Ja'Marr Chase WR1	16	125/185	67.6%	1412	88.3	8
Tee Higgins WR2	15	59/98	60.2%	846	56.4	11
Mike Gesicki TE	12	28/42	66.7%	307	25.6	2

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

PIT 2026

1. Pat Freiermuth TE 5 1 rush · 4 rec
2. Jaylen Warren RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
3. Darnell Washington TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec

CIN 2026

1. Ja'Marr Chase WR 7 0 rush · 7 rec
2. Mike Gesicki TE 6 0 rush · 6 rec
3. Tee Higgins WR 6 0 rush · 6 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.