Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

TENTEN at CINCIN

Paycor Stadium · outdoors

TEN moneyline+600
CIN moneyline-900
SpreadCIN -13.5
Total45.5

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Cincinnati Bengals an 81% chance to beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Paycor Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 45.6 total points (posted total 45.5) and expects the Bengals by 12.8 (posted spread Bengals −13.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Chase Brown (47%) and Tee Higgins (42%). Starting quarterbacks: Cam Ward for the Titans and Joe Burrow for the Bengals.

Final: Bengals 43, Titans 36 in overtime. Leo gave the Cincinnati Bengals an 81% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 79 points against Leo's 45.6 and the posted 45.5. Touchdowns: Tony Pollard (2), Wan'Dale Robinson, Chimere Dike, Mike Gesicki, Tee Higgins (2), Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Jack Endries.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickCIN 81%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -950 at the read
Leo total45.6points, both teams
Leo marginCIN by 12.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Joe Burrow CIN QB1 7.436.21.16 283
Cam Ward TEN QB1 5.730.617 166

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Tony Pollard TEN RB1 4.415.71.17 78
Chase Brown CIN RB1 4.213.71.26 67
Samaje Perine CIN RB2 4.55.21.26 28
Nicholas Singleton TEN RB2 4.22.91.12 15

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tee Higgins CIN WR1 11.97.81.16 103
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR2 8.18.81.16 81
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR1 4.4717 35
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR2 7.23.717 30
Calvin Ridley TEN WR3 7.33.115 26
Mitchell Tinsley CIN WR3 6.43.31.12 26

Why Leo has the Bengals at 81%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

TEN Game status

3 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Tyjae SpearsRB Knee
  • Out Carnell TateWR Shoulder
  • Out Tommy TownsendP Knee
  • Questionable Calvin RidleyWR Hip
  • Questionable John Franklin-MyersDE Groin / Back
  • Questionable Dorian MausiLB Foot
  • Questionable Jaylon JonesCB Knee
CIN Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Kyle DuggerS Quadricep
  • Questionable Joe Giles-HarrisLB Calf

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

TEN This season CIN
32 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 66
31 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 57
40 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 48
35 Overall 53
QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37 Last season QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TEN Per game, this season CIN
0.71Interceptions thrown0.50
0.71Interceptions caught0.67
0.43Fumbles lost0.33
0.43Fumbles forced1.17
1.14Takeaways1.83
1.14Giveaways0.83
0Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TEN Offense CIN
-0.159EPA per dropback+0.142
-1.7Completion % over expected+4.9
2.0%Interception rate1.9%
6.4%Sack rate taken4.8%
-0.080Rush EPA per carry-0.042
4.2%Explosive play rate5.1%
TEN Defense CIN
+0.064EPA allowed per play+0.029
5.86Yards allowed per play6.13
3.9%Sack rate4.7%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TEN, right is CIN.

TEN This season CIN
7Games6
168.4Pass yards/g275.5
91.1Rush yards/g81.2
4Passing TD15
5Interceptions thrown3
245.7Pass yards allowed/g253.8
131.1Rush yards allowed/g116.3
5Interceptions forced4
TEN Last season CIN
190.6Pass yards/g249.6
93.5Rush yards/g93.6
15Passing TD36
8Interceptions thrown17
248.3Pass yards allowed/g245.6
114.6Rush yards allowed/g147.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward7129/208 62%1179168.4 4 / 55.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard7112 4784.34
Tyjae Spears618 663.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Carnell Tate WR17 34/5166.7%413 591
Wan'Dale Robinson WR27 29/4367.4%205 29.32
Gunnar Helm TE6 12/1770.6%84 140
CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow6157/219 71.7%1653275.5 15 / 37.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown682 2853.51
Samaje Perine631 1264.11

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tee Higgins WR16 33/5066%571 95.22
Ja'Marr Chase WR26 32/4571.1%351 58.55
Mike Gesicki TE5 13/1872.2%165 335

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward17323/540 59.8%3169186.4 15 / 75.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17242 10824.55
Tyjae Spears1372 2833.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Elic Ayomanor WR116 41/8946.1%515 32.24
Chimere Dike WR217 48/7464.9%423 24.94
Chig Okonkwo TE17 56/7970.9%560 32.92
CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow8173/259 66.8%1809226.1 17 / 57

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown17232 10194.46
Samaje Perine1584 3824.53

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR116 125/18567.6%1412 88.38
Tee Higgins WR215 59/9860.2%846 56.411
Mike Gesicki TE12 28/4266.7%307 25.62

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Chase Brown (CIN, 47%) and Tee Higgins (CIN, 42%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TEN Leo’s chance
  1. Tony Pollard RB1 37% scored 2
  2. Wan'Dale Robinson WR1 27% scored
  3. Elic Ayomanor WR2 15% no TD
CIN Leo’s chance
  1. Chase Brown RB1 47% no TD
  2. Tee Higgins WR1 42% scored 2
  3. Ja'Marr Chase WR2 41% scored

Final result

TEN 36 – 43 CIN (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

TEN
Cam Ward QB 26/40304 yds2 TD0 INT
Tony Pollard RB 21 car117 yds2 TD3 rec, 20 yds
Gunnar Helm TE 5/976 yds0 TD
Chimere Dike WR 5/671 yds1 TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR 6/757 yds1 TD
CIN
Joe Burrow QB 38/48462 yds5 TD3 INT
Chase Brown RB 12 car55 yds0 TD8 rec, 46 yds
Samaje Perine RB 4 car10 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
Tee Higgins WR 10/11155 yds2 TD
Ja'Marr Chase WR 11/16141 yds1 TD
Mike Gesicki TE 4/676 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCIN 81%—CIN wonRIGHT
Total points45.646.579no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginCIN by 12.8CIN −13.5CIN by 7no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Joe Burrow CIN 272.5283 no side 462 179 More efficient (9.6 vs 7.4 yds/att) NO LEAN
Cam Ward TEN 193.5166 UNDER 304 138 More efficient (7.6 vs 5.7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tony Pollard TEN 65.578 OVER 117 39 More efficient (5.6 vs 4.4 yds/carry) RIGHT
Samaje Perine CIN 23.528 OVER 10 18 Less efficient (2.5 vs 4.5 yds/carry) WRONG
Chase Brown CIN 59.567 OVER 55 12 Fewer carries (12 vs 13.7 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 83.581 no side 141 60 More targets (16 vs 8.8 expected) NO LEAN
Tee Higgins CIN 72.5103 OVER 155 52 More targets (11 vs 7.8 expected) RIGHT
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 48.535 UNDER 57 22 More efficient (8.1 vs 4.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Calvin Ridley TEN 22.526 OVER 10 16 Less efficient (3.3 vs 7.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Elic Ayomanor TEN 33.530 UNDER 34 4 On target WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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