Week 9 · Sunday 09:30

CIN at ATL

Bernabeu · fieldturf

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Bengals at 58%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

CIN This season ATL

68 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 31

57 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41

45 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 53

51 Overall 47

QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34 Last season QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CIN	Per game, this season	ATL
0.86	Interceptions thrown	1.38
0.57	Interceptions caught	0.38
0.43	Fumbles lost	0.38
1.43	Fumbles forced	1.13
2.00	Takeaways	1.50
1.29	Giveaways	1.75
+0.71	Net turnover margin	-0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CIN	Offense	ATL
+0.162	EPA per dropback	-0.106
+6.2	Completion % over expected	-5.7
2.4%	Interception rate	3.7%
4.9%	Sack rate taken	5.9%
-0.066	Rush EPA per carry	-0.029
5.4%	Explosive play rate	5.9%
CIN	Defense	ATL
+0.049	EPA allowed per play	-0.018
6.18	Yards allowed per play	5.49
4.5%	Sack rate	4.1%
1.0%	Interception rate forced	0.9%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CIN, right is ATL.

CIN	This season	ATL
7	Games	8
302.1	Pass yards/g	200.5
80.3	Rush yards/g	134.8
20	Passing TD	10
6	Interceptions thrown	11
261	Pass yards allowed/g	237.5
122.3	Rush yards allowed/g	118.3
4	Interceptions forced	3
CIN	Last season	ATL
249.6	Pass yards/g	217.8
93.6	Rush yards/g	125.8
36	Passing TD	19
17	Interceptions thrown	8
245.6	Pass yards allowed/g	221.9
147.1	Rush yards allowed/g	126.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB68

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Joe Burrow	7	195/267	73%	2115	302.1	20 / 6	7.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chase Brown	7	94	340	3.6	1
Samaje Perine	7	35	136	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Tee Higgins WR1	7	43/61	70.5%	726	103.7	4
Ja'Marr Chase WR2	7	43/61	70.5%	492	70.3	6
Mike Gesicki TE	6	17/24	70.8%	241	40.2	6

ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB31

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Michael Penix Jr.	6	104/168	61.9%	1282	213.7	9 / 5	7.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bijan Robinson	8	150	780	5.2	4
Brian Robinson	6	53	211	4	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Drake London WR1	8	39/62	62.9%	624	78	1
Jahan Dotson WR2	8	14/30	46.7%	337	42.1	2
Kyle Pitts TE	8	22/32	68.8%	197	24.6	4

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Joe Burrow	8	173/259	66.8%	1809	226.1	17 / 5	7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Chase Brown	17	232	1019	4.4	6
Samaje Perine	15	84	382	4.5	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Ja'Marr Chase WR1	16	125/185	67.6%	1412	88.3	8
Tee Higgins WR2	15	59/98	60.2%	846	56.4	11
Mike Gesicki TE	12	28/42	66.7%	307	25.6	2

ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Michael Penix Jr.	9	166/276	60.1%	1982	220.2	9 / 3	7.2

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bijan Robinson	17	287	1478	5.1	7
Tyler Allgeier	17	143	514	3.6	8

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Drake London WR1	12	68/112	60.7%	919	76.6	7
Darnell Mooney WR2	15	32/72	44.4%	443	29.5	1
Kyle Pitts TE	17	88/118	74.6%	928	54.6	5

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CIN 2026

1. Mike Gesicki TE 6 0 rush · 6 rec
2. Ja'Marr Chase WR 6 0 rush · 6 rec
3. Tee Higgins WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec

ATL 2026

1. Bijan Robinson RB 5 4 rush · 1 rec
2. Kyle Pitts TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Brian Robinson RB 4 4 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.