Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
CIN
at
BAL
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game
CIN moneyline-148
BAL moneyline+124
SpreadCIN -3
Total46.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceBAL 56%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 4.4expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Joe Burrow CIN QB1 |
7.2 | 37 | 1 | 5 |
248 |
| Tyler Huntley BAL QB1 |
6.5 | 27 | 1 | 3 |
164 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL RB1 |
4.8 | 21.1 | 1.2 | 6 |
118 |
| Chase Brown CIN RB1 |
4.2 | 14.1 | 0.9 | 5 |
57 |
| Samaje Perine CIN RB2 |
4.5 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 5 |
24 |
| Justice Hill BAL RB2 |
4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6 |
18 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Zay Flowers BAL WR1 |
10 | 7.9 | 1 | 5 |
81 |
| Tee Higgins CIN WR1 |
9.4 | 7.8 | 1 | 5 |
75 |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR2 |
7.8 | 9.1 | 1 | 5 |
72 |
| Rashod Bateman BAL WR3 |
10.4 | 3.3 | 1 | 6 |
38 |
| Mitchell Tinsley CIN WR3 |
6.4 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 |
26 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane BAL WR2 |
5.8 | 3.8 | 1 | 2 |
25 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
CIN
Practice report
No game statuses on file — latest practice report shown
- DNP
B.J. HillDT
Not injury related - resting player
- DNP
Dexter LawrenceDT
Not injury related - resting player
- DNP
Jonathan AllenDT
Not injury related - resting player
- Full
Kyle DuggerS
Quadricep
BAL
Game status
3 out · 1 doubtful · 1 questionable
- Out
Lamar JacksonQB
Ankle
- Out
Tavius RobinsonLB
Pectoral
- Out
Jaylinn HawkinsS
Knee
- Doubtful
T.J. TampaCB
Knee
- Questionable
Broderick WashingtonDE
Ankle
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
CIN
This season
BAL
61
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
63
54
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
64
46
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
47
50
Overall
56
QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34
Last season
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| CIN |
Per game, this season |
BAL |
| 0.60 | Interceptions thrown | 0.17 |
|---|
| 0.60 | Interceptions caught | 0.50 |
|---|
| 0.40 | Fumbles lost | 0.50 |
|---|
| 1.40 | Fumbles forced | 0.83 |
|---|
| 2.00 | Takeaways | 1.33 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Giveaways | 0.67 |
|---|
| +1 | Net turnover margin | +0.67 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| CIN |
Offense |
BAL |
| +0.101 | EPA per dropback | +0.152 |
|---|
| +3.9 | Completion % over expected | +4.8 |
|---|
| 2.1% | Interception rate | 1.4% |
|---|
| 4.9% | Sack rate taken | 8.5% |
|---|
| -0.039 | Rush EPA per carry | +0.030 |
|---|
| 5.0% | Explosive play rate | 6.7% |
|---|
| CIN |
Defense |
BAL |
| +0.043 | EPA allowed per play | +0.010 |
|---|
| 6.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.46 |
|---|
| 4.5% | Sack rate | 3.5% |
|---|
| 1.1% | Interception rate forced | 0.9% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CIN, right is BAL.
| CIN |
This season |
BAL |
| 5 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 272.2 | Pass yards/g | 232.7 |
|---|
| 82.8 | Rush yards/g | 151.5 |
|---|
| 11 | Passing TD | 9 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions thrown | 1 |
|---|
| 245 | Pass yards allowed/g | 225.7 |
|---|
| 123 | Rush yards allowed/g | 100.5 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| CIN |
Last season |
BAL |
| 249.6 | Pass yards/g | 192.8 |
|---|
| 93.6 | Rush yards/g | 156.6 |
|---|
| 36 | Passing TD | 23 |
|---|
| 17 | Interceptions thrown | 11 |
|---|
| 245.6 | Pass yards allowed/g | 259 |
|---|
| 147.1 | Rush yards allowed/g | 106.6 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
CIN
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB61
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 135/189 |
71.4% | 1361 | 272.2 |
11 / 3 | 7.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Chase Brown | 5 | 71 |
246 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 27 |
110 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Tee Higgins WR1 | 5 |
27/43 | 62.8% | 423 |
84.6 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR2 | 5 |
27/38 | 71.1% | 289 |
57.8 | 4 |
| Mike Gesicki TE | 4 |
12/17 | 70.6% | 159 |
39.8 | 4 |
BAL
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB63
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 68/96 |
70.8% | 967 | 241.8 |
6 / 1 | 10.1 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 130 |
534 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 18 |
133 | 7.4 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Zay Flowers WR1 | 5 |
32/42 | 76.2% | 471 |
94.2 | 2 |
| Rashod Bateman WR2 | 6 |
16/22 | 72.7% | 233 |
38.8 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews TE | 6 |
23/33 | 69.7% | 181 |
30.2 | 1 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
CIN
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB53
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Joe Burrow | 8 | 173/259 |
66.8% | 1809 | 226.1 |
17 / 5 | 7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Chase Brown | 17 | 232 |
1019 | 4.4 | 6 |
| Samaje Perine | 15 | 84 |
382 | 4.5 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase WR1 | 16 |
125/185 | 67.6% | 1412 |
88.3 | 8 |
| Tee Higgins WR2 | 15 |
59/98 | 60.2% | 846 |
56.4 | 11 |
| Mike Gesicki TE | 12 |
28/42 | 66.7% | 307 |
25.6 | 2 |
BAL
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB51
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 192/302 |
63.6% | 2549 | 196.1 |
21 / 7 | 8.4 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 307 |
1595 | 5.2 | 16 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 13 | 59 |
341 | 5.8 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Zay Flowers WR1 | 17 |
86/118 | 72.9% | 1211 |
71.2 | 5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins WR2 | 17 |
22/39 | 56.4% | 330 |
19.4 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews TE | 17 |
48/70 | 68.6% | 422 |
24.8 | 5 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Derrick Henry (BAL, 69%) and Chase Brown (CIN, 44%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CIN
Leo’s chance
- Chase Brown
RB1
44%
- Tee Higgins
WR1
36%
- Ja'Marr Chase
WR2
35%
BAL
Leo’s chance
- Derrick Henry
RB1
69%
- Zay Flowers
WR1
41%
- Mark Andrews
TE1
26%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.