Week 8 · Thursday 20:15
CAR
at
GB
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
CAR moneyline+154
GB moneyline-185
SpreadGB -3.5
Total46.5
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 29, 2:42 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceGB 56%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.5points, both teams
Leo marginGB by 4.5expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Bryce Young CAR QB1 |
7.3 | 36 | 1 | 6 |
257 |
| Jordan Love GB QB1 |
7.3 | 36.9 | 1 | 7 |
253 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 |
4.3 | 15.3 | 0.9 | 6 |
61 |
| Josh Jacobs GB RB1 |
4.1 | 12.8 | 1.1 | 1 |
58 |
| Pierre Strong GB RB2 |
4 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 2 |
32 |
| AJ Dillon CAR RB2 |
4.1 | 4 | 0.9 | 4 |
16 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR1 |
9.1 | 8.4 | 1 | 6 |
80 |
| Christian Watson GB WR2 |
11.2 | 7.1 | 1 | 7 |
80 |
| Matthew Golden GB WR1 |
9.1 | 7.5 | 1 | 7 |
69 |
| Jalen Coker CAR WR2 |
6.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 5 |
46 |
| John Metchie III CAR WR3 |
5.9 | 3.7 | 1 | 5 |
26 |
| Savion Williams GB WR3 |
8.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 |
18 |
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Injury report
The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Thu, Oct 29, 2:57 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
CAR
Game status
4 out · 1 questionable
- Out
Damien LewisG
Knee
- Out
Torricelli Simpkins IIIG
Ankle
- Out
Jaelan PhillipsLB
Hamstring
- Out
Akayleb EvansCB
Triceps / Knee
- Questionable
Bobby Brown IIIDT
Hand
GB
Game status
3 out · 4 questionable
- Out
Travis GloverG
Knee
- Out
Sean RhyanC
Ankle
- Out
Zaire FranklinLB
Shin
- Questionable
Matthew GoldenWR
Shoulder / Foot
- Questionable
Anthony CampbellDT
Ankle
- Questionable
Devonte WyattDT
Ankle
- Questionable
Brenton Cox Jr.LB
Quadricep
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
CAR
This season
GB
51
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
60
52
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
55
42
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
55
47
Overall
55
QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43
Last season
QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| CAR |
Per game, this season |
GB |
| 0.67 | Interceptions thrown | 0.71 |
|---|
| 0.50 | Interceptions caught | 1.29 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Fumbles lost | 0.43 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Fumbles forced | 0.57 |
|---|
| 1.17 | Takeaways | 1.86 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Giveaways | 1.14 |
|---|
| +0.17 | Net turnover margin | +0.71 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| CAR |
Offense |
GB |
| +0.040 | EPA per dropback | +0.165 |
|---|
| +0.7 | Completion % over expected | +0.1 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 1.6% |
|---|
| 6.6% | Sack rate taken | 5.1% |
|---|
| -0.046 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.183 |
|---|
| 6.0% | Explosive play rate | 7.3% |
|---|
| CAR |
Defense |
GB |
| +0.044 | EPA allowed per play | -0.017 |
|---|
| 5.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.15 |
|---|
| 2.7% | Sack rate | 3.4% |
|---|
| 1.1% | Interception rate forced | 1.5% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CAR, right is GB.
| CAR |
This season |
GB |
| 6 | Games | 7 |
|---|
| 293.2 | Pass yards/g | 279.7 |
|---|
| 105.3 | Rush yards/g | 59.9 |
|---|
| 12 | Passing TD | 13 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions thrown | 5 |
|---|
| 208.2 | Pass yards allowed/g | 222.6 |
|---|
| 153.2 | Rush yards allowed/g | 115 |
|---|
| 3 | Interceptions forced | 9 |
|---|
| CAR |
Last season |
GB |
| 198.2 | Pass yards/g | 231.6 |
|---|
| 114.4 | Rush yards/g | 118.7 |
|---|
| 25 | Passing TD | 30 |
|---|
| 13 | Interceptions thrown | 7 |
|---|
| 220.1 | Pass yards allowed/g | 215.4 |
|---|
| 122.9 | Rush yards allowed/g | 116.3 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
CAR
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB51
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Bryce Young | 6 | 135/228 |
59.2% | 1712 | 285.3 |
12 / 4 | 7.5 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 96 |
459 | 4.8 | 4 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 17 |
43 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | 6 |
36/54 | 66.7% | 511 |
85.2 | 2 |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | 5 |
25/39 | 64.1% | 328 |
65.6 | 2 |
| Darren Waller TE | 6 |
14/23 | 60.9% | 198 |
33 | 3 |
GB
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB60
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jordan Love | 7 | 162/271 |
59.8% | 1958 | 279.7 |
13 / 5 | 7.2 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | 7 | 54 |
142 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 6 | 28 |
104 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Matthew Golden WR1 | 7 |
36/69 | 52.2% | 540 |
77.1 | 3 |
| Christian Watson WR2 | 7 |
34/56 | 60.7% | 595 |
85 | 6 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 7 |
29/43 | 67.4% | 297 |
42.4 | 2 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
CAR
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB46
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Bryce Young | 17 | 325/518 |
62.7% | 3275 | 192.6 |
24 / 12 | 6.3 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 241 |
1085 | 4.5 | 6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 147 |
557 | 3.8 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | 18 |
75/129 | 58.1% | 1095 |
60.8 | 7 |
| Xavier Legette WR2 | 16 |
36/68 | 52.9% | 371 |
23.2 | 3 |
| Tommy Tremble TE | 16 |
30/40 | 75% | 271 |
16.9 | 2 |
GB
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB72
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jordan Love | 16 | 315/485 |
64.9% | 3704 | 231.5 |
27 / 6 | 7.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 253 |
984 | 3.9 | 13 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 18 | 126 |
499 | 4 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Romeo Doubs WR1 | 17 |
63/96 | 65.6% | 848 |
49.9 | 7 |
| Christian Watson WR2 | 11 |
38/62 | 61.3% | 647 |
58.8 | 7 |
| Tucker Kraft TE | 8 |
32/44 | 72.7% | 489 |
61.1 | 6 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Josh Jacobs (GB, 54%) and Chuba Hubbard (CAR, 44%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CAR
Leo’s chance
- Chuba Hubbard
RB1
44%
- Tetairoa McMillan
WR1
34%
- Jalen Coker
WR2
23%
GB
Leo’s chance
- Josh Jacobs
RB1
54%
- Matthew Golden
WR1
37%
- Christian Watson
WR2
36%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.