Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

MIA at IND

Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Colts at 54%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

MIA This season IND

36 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33

43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 40

33 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 39

38 Overall 40

QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39 Last season QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIA	Per game, this season	IND
0.75	Interceptions thrown	1.11
0.63	Interceptions caught	0.22
0.50	Fumbles lost	0.78
0.50	Fumbles forced	0.78
1.13	Takeaways	1.00
1.25	Giveaways	1.89
-0.12	Net turnover margin	-0.89

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIA	Offense	IND
-0.054	EPA per dropback	-0.113
-2.4	Completion % over expected	-2.7
3.2%	Interception rate	3.1%
9.3%	Sack rate taken	6.8%
-0.029	Rush EPA per carry	+0.023
5.5%	Explosive play rate	4.5%
MIA	Defense	IND
+0.096	EPA allowed per play	+0.049
5.84	Yards allowed per play	6.1
3.0%	Sack rate	3.5%
1.0%	Interception rate forced	0.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIA, right is IND.

MIA	This season	IND
8	Games	9
180.3	Pass yards/g	192.2
117.5	Rush yards/g	115.2
6	Passing TD	6
6	Interceptions thrown	10
224.6	Pass yards allowed/g	238.3
111.8	Rush yards allowed/g	137
5	Interceptions forced	2
MIA	Last season	IND
195.4	Pass yards/g	240.3
120.2	Rush yards/g	118.1
23	Passing TD	25
18	Interceptions thrown	14
230.6	Pass yards allowed/g	262.5
132.4	Rush yards allowed/g	101.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Malik Willis	8	121/208	58.2%	1396	174.5	6 / 6	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Ollie Gordon II	7	107	463	4.3	4
De'Von Achane	3	34	127	3.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Malik Washington WR1	8	33/48	68.8%	350	43.8	1
Caleb Douglas WR2	5	19/27	70.4%	296	59.2	2
Greg Dulcich TE	7	24/32	75%	270	38.6	0

IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Daniel Jones	9	182/302	60.3%	1722	191.3	6 / 10	5.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jonathan Taylor	9	161	656	4.1	8
Seth McGowan	9	43	208	4.8	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Keenan Allen WR1	8	40/58	69%	351	43.9	1
Josh Downs WR2	9	33/57	57.9%	354	39.3	1
Tyler Warren TE	7	38/53	71.7%	275	39.3	2

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Tua Tagovailoa	14	260/384	67.7%	2660	190	20 / 15	6.9

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
De'Von Achane	16	238	1350	5.7	8
Ollie Gordon II	17	70	199	2.8	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jaylen Waddle WR1	16	64/100	64%	910	56.9	6
Malik Washington WR2	17	46/65	70.8%	317	18.6	3
Darren Waller TE	9	24/34	70.6%	283	31.4	6

IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Daniel Jones	13	261/384	68%	3101	238.5	19 / 8	8.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jonathan Taylor	17	323	1585	4.9	18
DJ Giddens	5	26	96	3.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Michael Pittman WR1	17	80/111	72.1%	784	46.1	7
Josh Downs WR2	16	58/88	65.9%	566	35.4	4
Tyler Warren TE	17	76/112	67.9%	817	48.1	4

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

MIA 2026

1. Ollie Gordon II RB 4 4 rush · 0 rec
2. Malik Willis QB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
3. Caleb Douglas WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

IND 2026

1. Jonathan Taylor RB 8 8 rush · 0 rec
2. Tyler Warren TE 3 1 rush · 2 rec
3. Daniel Jones QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.