Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

KC at ATL

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Chiefs at 61%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

KC This season ATL

58 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 32

62 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43

55 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 50

59 Overall 46

QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51 Last season QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

KC	Per game, this season	ATL
0.50	Interceptions thrown	1.33
0.75	Interceptions caught	0.33
0.25	Fumbles lost	0.33
0.75	Fumbles forced	1.00
1.50	Takeaways	1.33
0.75	Giveaways	1.67
+0.75	Net turnover margin	-0.33

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

KC	Offense	ATL
+0.112	EPA per dropback	-0.103
+1.1	Completion % over expected	-5.4
1.7%	Interception rate	3.7%
5.2%	Sack rate taken	5.5%
+0.059	Rush EPA per carry	-0.005
5.7%	Explosive play rate	6.0%
KC	Defense	ATL
-0.050	EPA allowed per play	0.000
5.13	Yards allowed per play	5.6
2.8%	Sack rate	4.1%
1.1%	Interception rate forced	0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is KC, right is ATL.

KC	This season	ATL
8	Games	9
254.6	Pass yards/g	196.2
137.8	Rush yards/g	137.2
14	Passing TD	11
4	Interceptions thrown	12
220.5	Pass yards allowed/g	241.2
97.5	Rush yards allowed/g	118.8
6	Interceptions forced	3
KC	Last season	ATL
232.2	Pass yards/g	217.8
106.6	Rush yards/g	125.8
23	Passing TD	19
12	Interceptions thrown	8
205.1	Pass yards allowed/g	221.9
105.7	Rush yards allowed/g	126.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Patrick Mahomes	8	177/263	67.3%	2037	254.6	14 / 4	7.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kenneth Walker III	8	159	872	5.5	7
Emmett Johnson	8	26	111	4.3	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Xavier Worthy WR1	8	33/47	70.2%	278	34.8	1
Rashee Rice WR2	5	25/32	78.1%	292	58.4	2
Travis Kelce TE	8	33/48	68.8%	482	60.3	2

ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Michael Penix Jr.	7	124/199	62.3%	1444	206.3	10 / 6	7.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bijan Robinson	9	169	880	5.2	5
Brian Robinson	6	53	211	4	4

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Drake London WR1	9	44/67	65.7%	692	76.9	1
Jahan Dotson WR2	9	16/32	50%	353	39.2	2
Kyle Pitts TE	9	25/37	67.6%	220	24.4	4

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Patrick Mahomes	14	315/502	62.7%	3587	256.2	22 / 11	7.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Kareem Hunt	17	163	611	3.7	8
Isiah Pacheco	13	118	462	3.9	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Rashee Rice WR1	8	53/78	67.9%	571	71.4	5
Marquise Brown WR2	16	49/74	66.2%	587	36.7	5
Travis Kelce TE	17	76/108	70.4%	851	50.1	5

ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Michael Penix Jr.	9	166/276	60.1%	1982	220.2	9 / 3	7.2

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Bijan Robinson	17	287	1478	5.1	7
Tyler Allgeier	17	143	514	3.6	8

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Drake London WR1	12	68/112	60.7%	919	76.6	7
Darnell Mooney WR2	15	32/72	44.4%	443	29.5	1
Kyle Pitts TE	17	88/118	74.6%	928	54.6	5

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

KC 2026

1. Kenneth Walker III RB 11 7 rush · 4 rec
2. Travis Kelce TE 3 1 rush · 2 rec
3. Tyquan Thornton WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec

ATL 2026

1. Bijan Robinson RB 6 5 rush · 1 rec
2. Kyle Pitts TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec
3. Brian Robinson RB 4 4 rush · 0 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.