Week 6 · Sunday 20:20

DALDAL at GBGB

Lambeau Field · outdoors

DAL moneyline-115
GB moneyline-105
SpreadDAL -1.5
Total53.5

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 7:45 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceGB 53%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.3points, both teams
Leo marginGB by 2.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jordan Love GB QB1 7.635.115 263
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 7.337.90.95 247

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 4.515.51.25 82
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 3.99.11.25 42
Kaleb Johnson GB RB2 4.35.51.25 29
Tyler Goodson DAL RB2 4.331.22 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Christian Watson GB WR2 13.46.915 97
George Pickens DAL WR2 12.18.10.95 94
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 8.89.80.95 82
Matthew Golden GB WR1 8.76.415 60
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 8.94.80.95 42
Bo Melton GB WR3 2.41.415 7
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

DAL Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Drew SheltonT Hamstring
  • Out Cobie DurantCB Hamstring
  • Questionable LT OvertonDT Foot
  • Questionable DeMarvion OvershownLB Hamstring
  • Questionable Ameer SpeedCB Knee
  • Questionable Joey Porter Jr.CB Ankle
GB Game status

4 out · 1 doubtful · 5 questionable

  • Out Skyy MooreWR Ankle
  • Out Javon HargraveDT Achilles
  • Out Jonathan FordDT Calf
  • Out Benjamin St-JusteCB Hamstring
  • Doubtful Jordon RileyDE Achilles
  • Questionable Savion WilliamsWR Ankle
  • Questionable Aaron BanksG Knee / Toe
  • Questionable Jacob MonkC Quadricep
  • Questionable Anthony CampbellDT Ankle
  • Questionable Brandon CisseCB Hip

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

DAL This season GB
64 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 61
63 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 55
19 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 54
41 Overall 54
QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27 Last season QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DAL Per game, this season GB
0.60Interceptions thrown0.60
0.00Interceptions caught1.40
0.20Fumbles lost0.60
1.20Fumbles forced0.40
1.20Takeaways1.80
0.80Giveaways1.20
+0.4Net turnover margin+0.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DAL Offense GB
+0.205EPA per dropback+0.169
+2.1Completion % over expected+0.8
1.7%Interception rate1.5%
3.8%Sack rate taken5.2%
-0.016Rush EPA per carry-0.186
5.7%Explosive play rate7.1%
DAL Defense GB
+0.182EPA allowed per play+0.006
6.42Yards allowed per play5.1
2.3%Sack rate3.8%
0.3%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DAL, right is GB.

DAL This season GB
5Games5
276.2Pass yards/g281.6
81.6Rush yards/g60.4
9Passing TD10
3Interceptions thrown3
231.8Pass yards allowed/g199.4
168.4Rush yards allowed/g127.6
0Interceptions forced7
DAL Last season GB
278.5Pass yards/g231.6
125.6Rush yards/g118.7
31Passing TD30
12Interceptions thrown7
265.9Pass yards allowed/g215.4
125.5Rush yards allowed/g116.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott5129/192 67.2%1381276.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams574 2763.76
Tyler Goodson29 343.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR15 39/5176.5%507 101.44
George Pickens WR25 27/4165.9%355 711
Jake Ferguson TE5 15/2171.4%102 20.43
GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love5112/185 60.5%1408281.6 10 / 37.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd540 1122.82
Kaleb Johnson527 1063.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Matthew Golden WR15 24/4454.5%397 79.42
Christian Watson WR25 26/4065%474 94.86
Tucker Kraft TE5 20/2969%212 42.41

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38
GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Javonte Williams (DAL, 60%) and CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 45%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DAL Leo’s chance
  1. Javonte Williams RB1 60% scored
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR1 45% no TD
  3. George Pickens WR2 29% no TD
GB Leo’s chance
  1. Christian Watson WR2 40% no TD
  2. MarShawn Lloyd RB1 35% no TD
  3. Matthew Golden WR1 35% scored

Final result

DAL 13 – 23 GB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

DAL
Dak Prescott QB 34/54258 yds1 TD2 INT
Javonte Williams RB 11 car41 yds1 TD2 rec, 9 yds
Tyler Goodson RB 2 car0 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
George Pickens WR 6/1173 yds0 TD
CeeDee Lamb WR 9/1870 yds0 TD
Ryan Flournoy WR 7/940 yds1 TD
GB
Jordan Love QB 23/41276 yds1 TD1 INT
Pierre Strong RB 11 car28 yds0 TD5 rec, 39 yds
MarShawn Lloyd RB 8 car10 yds0 TD
Savion Williams WR 2 car9 yds0 TD4 rec, 32 yds
Matthew Golden WR 6/13104 yds1 TD
Christian Watson WR 3/864 yds0 TD
Pierre Strong RB 5/639 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerGB 53%—GB wonNO PICK
Total points51.353.536no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginGB by 2.6DAL −1.5GB by 10GB +1.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Love GB 278.5263 UNDER 276 13 On target RIGHT
Dak Prescott DAL 284.5247 UNDER 258 11 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Javonte Williams DAL 66.582 OVER 41 41 Fewer carries (11 vs 15.5 expected) WRONG
MarShawn Lloyd GB 43.542 no side 10 32 Less efficient (1.3 vs 3.9 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Kaleb Johnson GB —29 no side -2 31 Fewer carries (1 vs 5.5 expected)
Tyler Goodson DAL 10.516 OVER 0 16 Less efficient (0 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Golden GB 66.560 UNDER 104 44 More targets (13 vs 6.4 expected) WRONG
Christian Watson GB 76.597 OVER 64 33 Less efficient (8 vs 13.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
George Pickens DAL 71.594 OVER 73 21 Less efficient (6.6 vs 12.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
CeeDee Lamb DAL 85.582 no side 70 12 Less efficient (3.9 vs 8.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Bo Melton GB 8.57 UNDER 0 7 On target RIGHT
Ryan Flournoy DAL 31.542 OVER 40 2 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.