MLB teams · AL Central · 2026 season
Cleveland Guardians 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 69 Cleveland Guardians games with a final result between July 10 and October 18, 2026. The Guardians went 36-33 in them. Leo gave the Guardians better than an even chance in 35 of those games, and they won 22. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 14 of 34. Leo's average win chance for the Guardians was 54%. The side Leo favored won 42 of the 69 games where Leo favored a side. Of these, 6 were postseason games (3-3).
36-33
Guardians record in games Leo analyzed
42-27
Leo’s reads on Guardians games (right‑wrong)
22-13
Guardians record when Leo favored them
54%
Leo’s average win chance for the Guardians
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Guardians record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Guardians on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 15 | 7-8 | 58% |
| Gavin Williams | 15 | 7-8 | 58% |
| Tanner Bibee | 12 | 6-6 | 49% |
| Joey Cantillo | 10 | 5-5 | 48% |
| Foster Griffin | 9 | 5-4 | 54% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Guardians, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Guardians result is whether the Guardians won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Guardians) | Leo favored | Guardians result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 post | at Rays | 35% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 18 post | vs Rays | 49% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Oct 17 post | vs Rays | 28% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 16 post | vs Rays | 28% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 13 post | at Rays | 72% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Oct 12 post | at Rays | 30% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Oct 10 post | vs White Sox | 57% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Oct 8 post | at White Sox | 59% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Oct 5 post | vs White Sox | 71% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 27 | at Royals | 73% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 26 | at Royals | 40% | Royals | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 25 | at Royals | 68% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 24 | at Red Sox | 68% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 23 | at Red Sox | 39% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 22 | at Red Sox | 55% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 20 | vs Athletics | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 19 | vs Athletics | 69% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 18 | vs Athletics | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 14 | vs White Sox | 53% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 13 | at Twins | 39% | Twins | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | at Twins | 72% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 11 | at Twins | 71% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 9 | at Orioles | 68% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | at Orioles | 52% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 6 | vs Tigers | 72% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 5 | vs Tigers | 73% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 4 | vs Tigers | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Sep 4 | vs Tigers | 29% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 2 | vs Blue Jays | 28% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 1 | vs Blue Jays | 44% | Blue Jays | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 30 | vs Royals | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 29 | vs Royals | 48% | Royals | Lost | Right |
| Aug 28 | vs Royals | 45% | Royals | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | at Angels | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 25 | at Angels | 57% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 24 | at Angels | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 23 | at Rockies | 73% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 22 | at Rockies | 74% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 21 | at Rockies | 71% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 20 | vs Giants | 70% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 19 | vs Giants | 74% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | vs Giants | 74% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Aug 16 | vs Padres | 34% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Aug 15 | vs Padres | 39% | Padres | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | vs Padres | 44% | Padres | Lost | Right |
| Aug 13 | at Tigers | 38% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 12 | at Tigers | 35% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 11 | at Tigers | 35% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 9 | at White Sox | 41% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 8 | at White Sox | 46% | White Sox | Lost | Right |
| Aug 7 | at White Sox | 43% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 6 | vs Mets | 47% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 5 | vs Mets | 44% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 4 | vs Mets | 46% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 2 | vs Diamondbacks | 38% | Diamondbacks | No result | |
| Aug 1 | vs Diamondbacks | 35% | Diamondbacks | Lost | Right |
| Jul 31 | vs Diamondbacks | 82% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | at Reds | 54% | Guardians | Won | Right |
| Jul 28 | at Reds | 48% | Reds | Lost | Right |
| Jul 28 | at Reds | 37% | Reds | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 27 | at Reds | 35% | Reds | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | at Rays | 38% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 25 | at Rays | 33% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 24 | at Rays | 40% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 23 | vs Twins | 59% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | vs Twins | 58% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 21 | vs Twins | 66% | Guardians | No result | |
| Jul 20 | vs Twins | 47% | Twins | No result | |
| Jul 19 | vs Pirates | 45% | Pirates | Lost | Right |
| Jul 18 | vs Pirates | 48% | Pirates | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 18 | vs Pirates | 51% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 17 | vs Pirates | 51% | Guardians | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 12 | at Marlins | 42% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | at Marlins | 37% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 10 | at Marlins | 39% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 9 | at Twins | 42% | Twins | No result | |
| Jul 7 | at Twins | 44% | Twins | No result |
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