MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 14, 2026 at Progressive Field · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on White Sox vs Guardians
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
White Sox 7, Guardians 3
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Sean Newcomb (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Gavin Williams: 1.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA). The edge held up.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 8.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Chicago White Sox pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (6.75 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the Chicago White Sox bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 8.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Progressive Field |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Newcomb vs Gavin Williams |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.74 | 3.72 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 12.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.8% | 25.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.4% | 33.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.6% | 7.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.2% | 50.0% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Gavin Williams the edge over the Chicago White Sox pitching plan (1 points on Leo's pitcher score). Sean Newcomb is projected for only 1⅔ innings, with the Chicago White Sox bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Gavin Williams's own line against the Chicago White Sox blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Chicago White Sox, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Sean Newcomb (about 1⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.78 rather than Sean Newcomb's own 2.74. Whole-game, that is 2.94 for the Cleveland Guardians against 3.78 on the other side, so the blended read leans Cleveland Guardians.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.25 against -0.07).
| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.636 | 0.742 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.289 | 0.327 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.4% | 18.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.026 vs szn) | 0.709 (+0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.10 (-0.577 vs szn) | 4.64 (+0.550 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 (-0.007 vs szn) | 0.314 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.1% (+1.0% vs szn) | 18.5% (-2.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.314 wOBA to 0.312. White Sox are striking out at 25.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-73 | 76-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | -0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.68 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.43 | 4.17 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.689 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.715 | 0.659 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Guardians are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.0/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.7/10, Below average | 6.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.7/10, High risk | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 37.3 | 30.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.54 | 2.10 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.63 | 0.93 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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