Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, September 22, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
16
OFFICIAL PICKS
16
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
11
Updated Sep 22, 8:56 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 54.9%
- Market probability
- 45.1%
- Model vs market
- +9.8%
- Current price
- +120
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.2/10 versus 4.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Cleveland Guardians has used 23.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians grades as a strong value setup with 54.9% model win probability against a 45.1% market number and a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Cleveland Guardians carries the higher-risk bullpen, 5.5/10 versus 3.4/10. Recent context: 23.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been effective lately (6.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 6.4 points from 61.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 54.9%. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 54.9%, below the 61.0% official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -165
Pitcher Ks: Janson Junk Under 3.5 -174
Pitcher Ks: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 -135
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.5/10
- Model probability
- 70.1%
- Market probability
- 61.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.8%
- Current price
- -165
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 4.7/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.1% chance to win, compared with the market's 61.3% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.7/10 versus 6.5/10. Miami Marlins has 23.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Miami Marlins's pen has been average lately (4.5/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.6 points from 89.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.1%. At -165, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Max Fried Under 5.5 -178
Pitcher Ks: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 +102
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 52.7%
- Market probability
- 54.6%
- Model vs market
- -2.0%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 5.8/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 52.7% win probability, the market is at 54.6%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 5.6/10, Tampa Bay Rays 6.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 2.4 points from 55.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 52.7%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 70.4%
- Market probability
- 58.2%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -145
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.3/10 and Washington Nationals is 8.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Riley Cornelio is expected to cover about 2.6 innings, leaving roughly 6.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.1/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.6/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Riley Cornelio is expected to cover about 2.6 innings, leaving roughly 6.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.1/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.6/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cristian Javier Over 4.5 +106
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 55.2%
- Model vs market
- +17.4%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 5.5/10 and Houston Astros is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSeattle Mariners is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.6% win probability, the market is at 55.2%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Seattle Mariners has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Seattle Mariners has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.5/10 versus 7.3/10. Houston Astros has 28.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Houston Astros's pen has been below average lately (4.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.6%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andre Pallante Over 3.5 -158
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 60.7%
- Model vs market
- -6.3%
- Current price
- -166
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 39.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionPittsburgh Pirates is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 54.5% win probability, the market is at 60.7%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Pittsburgh Pirates carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.9/10 versus 6.7/10. Recent context: 39.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Pittsburgh Pirates's pen has been average lately (5.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 6.8 points from 61.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 54.5%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Soroka Over 4.5 +105
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 -120
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- +14.8%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 7.7/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael King Under 4.5 -111
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 63.5%
- Market probability
- 65.6%
- Model vs market
- -2.1%
- Current price
- -215
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Los Angeles Dodgers is 8.0/10 and San Diego Padres is 7.9/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Brock Stewart is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 6.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 5.2/10 for San Diego Padres.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Brock Stewart is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 6.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 5.2/10 for San Diego Padres.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nick Martinez Over 3.5 -110
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 45.4%
- Model vs market
- +5.8%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.2/10 and New York Yankees is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dustin May Over 3.5 +110
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 71.5%
- Market probability
- 43.5%
- Model vs market
- +28.0%
- Current price
- +127
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 6.9/10 and Milwaukee Brewers is 7.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
- Leo side
- Athletics Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 64.6%
- Market probability
- 45.8%
- Model vs market
- +18.8%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Athletics by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Athletics is 5.8/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.2/10 risk with 6.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Athletics versus 5.2/10 for Los Angeles Angels.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.2/10 risk with 6.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Athletics versus 5.2/10 for Los Angeles Angels.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Brandon Williamson Over 2.5 -128
Pitcher Ks: JR Ritchie Over 4.5 -143
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 67.5%
- Market probability
- 68.7%
- Model vs market
- -1.1%
- Current price
- -235
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Anthony Molina Over 3.5 -145
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 60.0%
- Market probability
- 57.4%
- Model vs market
- +2.6%
- Current price
- -148
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins has the fresher bullpen, 6.3/10 versus 8.1/10. San Francisco Giants has used 22.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 58.7%
- Market probability
- 51.1%
- Model vs market
- +7.6%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.9/10 versus 5.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.0/10 risk with 3.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago White Sox. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.0/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 3.4/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.0/10 risk with 3.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago White Sox. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.0/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 3.4/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Manaea Over 4.5 -122
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 51.7%
- Market probability
- 46.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.4%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 6.7/10 versus 9.1/10. Texas Rangers has used 36.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.6/10
- Model probability
- 60.9%
- Market probability
- 52.7%
- Model vs market
- +8.2%
- Current price
- -117
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 10.0/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 35.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.