MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Coors Field · 8:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Diamondbacks vs Rockies
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 2
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won, the side Leo's model favored.
Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Kyle Freeland: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 5 ER (15.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 7, 4.2 more than the 2.8 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 21% precipitation chance, 14 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 44 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.45 | 6.56 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.5% | 13.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.5% | 18.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.4% | 50.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Michael Soroka a 29-point edge over Kyle Freeland, driven mainly by ERA (3.45 vs 6.56) and HR/9 (0.69 vs 1.88).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Diamondbacks are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.03 against -1.16).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.773 | 0.731 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.337 | 0.323 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.2% | 23.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.700 (-0.015 vs szn) | 0.734 |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.496 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.572 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 (-0.007 vs szn) | 0.324 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% (+1.6% vs szn) | 23.4% (+0.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.308.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 82-74 | 57-99 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.03 | -1.16 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.64 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.43 | 5.80 |
| Season OPS | 0.714 | 0.739 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 22.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.778 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.7/10, Tired | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.1/10, Effective | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.7/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 29.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.80 | 2.48 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.88 | 0.97 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 6.2 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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