MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Brewers vs Phillies
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Brewers 4, Phillies 6
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won, the side Leo's model favored.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Dustin May: 5.2 IP, 3 ER (4.76 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 2 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 6.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.1 innings (2.70 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Dustin May vs Zack Wheeler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 61°F, 18% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 59 | 78 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.67 | 3.06 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.06 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.8% | 22.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.9% | 30.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.8% | 50.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.2% | 49.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Zack Wheeler a 19-point edge over Dustin May, driven mainly by K-BB% (22.7% vs 14.8%) and expected innings (5.8 vs 4.8).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.27 against +0.20).
| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.800 | 0.677 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.350 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.8% | 19.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.783 (+0.041 vs szn) | 0.672 (-0.037 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.85 (+0.718 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.404 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.344 (+0.016 vs szn) | 0.300 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.1% (+1.2% vs szn) | 19.5% (-2.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.344 wOBA to 0.300. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 98-58 | 86-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.27 | +0.20 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.13 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.86 | 4.28 |
| Season OPS | 0.744 | 0.709 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.761 | 0.708 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 2.9/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 31.7 | 19.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.84 | 6.16 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.23 | 1.95 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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